Does the rapid population growth in China have a negative impact on the economy?

The chairman once said that "many hands make light work". But in fact, many people are very confused. The law of diminishing returns in economics says that if more acceptable factors, such as principal and technology, are added to a constant factor, the gross domestic product and average production value will be reduced, which will have the opposite effect. Assuming that China is a "short-term operation", people are variable factors and China's capital and technology are constant factors, then the increasing population will affect the GDP and average GDP, in other words, it will affect the living standards of China people. How does population increase affect people's living standards? Why is the total population of China increasing? These are the views I want to discuss here.

The population of China is increasing. 1952 national census, China entered the first peak, with a population of over 600 million, which increased by at least 50 million four years later. From 1962 to 1973, it entered the second peak, and from 1962 to 1965, the population was born for the second time. From 1968 to 1970, the population was born for the third time. The national population increased from 658.59 million to 892 1 1 10,000. According to the statistics of 1967, the national population is 763.68 million, which is 1949 140.98%. This population growth rate has not yet reached the stage of slowing down. From 1974 to 1990, the population continued to grow to 949.74 million. Although this growth rate has slowed down, many crises have been buried in this huge population increase. The most worrying thing is that these crises will affect our interests. 1

The ever-increasing population will indeed have a great impact, which will bring great pressure on economy, education, employment and living standards. We are now analyzing the relationship between economy and life.

China, with its vast territory and rich natural resources, will never be inferior to other countries. But why is China poorer than other countries? For example, Japan. China's natural resources are definitely better than Japanese. But Japan has developed rapidly and is richer than China. Although China also has developed areas, such as Shanghai, Japanese also has poor areas. But on the whole, the facts tell us that when you go to Chinese mainland and Japanese villages, there will be more children without shoes, more beggars with tin cans, and more skinny children in China villages. Why do countries with better resources have a backward side? There are many reasons, but one of them may be that China has a large population, and it is really difficult for the country to take care of the rapidly growing population, especially the education of children.

Compared with other countries, many children in China can't receive a good education. In addition, many families have low incomes and heavy economic burdens, which makes reading a luxury. Because reading will not only cost money, but also reduce the family's own labor, expenses and income, so I don't want to read to my children. Although the country actively promotes education, it is impossible to provide enough schools for all children because there are too many children and less investment in education. As a result, China's education level is lower than other countries, and children can't get the education they deserve. As a result, economic development is affected and high-quality industries cannot develop. So backward education has slowed down economic development. On the contrary, if the population growth in China is not so fast and the population is small, then people can enjoy more educational resources and improve their education level. People can have a higher ability to develop the economy, and with the improvement of economic conditions, their living standards will be improved one after another. If a family has one more child, it will naturally share less education funds. If there is only one child in the family, naturally, that child can get more education funds. Therefore, a large population will hinder the development of quality education in China!

In addition, a very serious problem-unemployment-is also due to the sharp increase in population. Unemployment has long been the primary problem in China society, because the population of China is growing; There are not enough jobs, and with the continuous growth of population, cultivated land is becoming more and more scarce, and the seriousness of unemployment is becoming increasingly apparent. According to Hu Angang's calculation, the working population is 770 million, the unemployed population is 65.438+55 million, and the unemployment rate is 20.654.38+0%. This unemployment rate is far lower than the 23.3% and 27.8% calculated by Yang Yiyong and Feng Rui. The unemployment rate is not just a number, but there are many hidden problems behind it. If people lose their jobs, they have to take risks to make a living. Isn't this affecting public order in China? The root of unemployment is the accelerated growth of population, so the consequences of population problems are very serious and often negative.

I personally agree with Malthus's "population theory" and think that there are two basic constructions: first, to survive, survival needs food; The second is opposites attract. But at this point, I also agree with Kang Xie's suggestion that marriage is harmless and childbirth can be avoided. nine

Population growth has brought many problems, such as food, prices, housing, politics and resources. Although China has a vast territory and abundant natural resources, it has brought a heavy burden to the growing population, which means it is difficult to improve the living standard. Let's talk about the impact of population explosion on food.

The population grows geometrically, while the grain grows arithmetically. Malthus took the United States as an example to prove the theory of population growth according to geometric series. The United States is extremely rich in natural resources, the people's lifestyle is relatively simple, and people are very contraceptive. Malthus listed the population growth rate of the United States for many years, which doubled in 25 years, not including immigrants from abroad. So he inferred from this evidence that the population of any country is likely to double in 25 to 30 years if it is not suppressed and there is no pressure of insufficient natural resources. The problem is that after the first 25 years, the grain output will never double. Malthus used numbers to express these two differences. The population has increased geometrically, doubling at the ratio of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, while the helpless grain has increased at the level of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Therefore, the increase of population will affect the supply of food, which is a necessity for human survival. China is based on agriculture, and its industry and commerce have started to develop in recent years, so part of its grain also depends on other countries. With the continuous growth of population, food supply tends to be in short supply, which affects the price of food.

In addition, housing is also a problem brought about by population growth. The population is increasing and the land supply is limited, so the demand exceeds the supply, which leads to the rise of land price and real estate price, and finally the burden on the people is aggravated. This is the result of population increase, and this phenomenon is appearing in major cities. The population of China is increasing. If the country can't solve the problem in time, people's life will become more and more difficult, which will lead to social instability and ultimately affect political stability. This is a hidden worry! In addition, due to the large increase in population, natural resources such as coal and oil will also be consumed faster. With the increase of population and the continuous supply of resources, China will eventually face the problem of resource shortage.

In the past few decades, China still faces enormous population pressure. If the family planning system is maintained, the population of China will reach 654.38+380 million in 2065 and 654.38+450 million in 2020. The average annual growth rate before 10 is 0.8%, and after 10, it is a country with low population growth. The population will age rapidly and the process of urbanization will be accelerated. The life expectancy of the population will increase from the current 7 1 year to 75 years in 2020. By 2020, the proportion of people over 63 will reach 15. 1%, and the proportion of urban population will rise to 46.2%.

Most of the energy that has not been supplied can be produced by domestic energy. But by 20 10, the total energy demand will increase from 65438+165438+700 million tons of standard coal to 2.27 billion tons in 20 10 and 2.87 billion tons in 2020. 29% of the oil demand (about 654.38 billion tons of crude oil) needs to be replenished from the import. By 2020, 30% of the oil demand (about 65.438+400 million tons of crude oil) needs to be met from imports. In 20 10, the net import of natural gas will reach 5.6 billion cubic meters, and in 2020 it will reach/kloc-0.09 billion cubic meters. This is a strategic issue that needs to be correctly understood and treated. ,