The Empty Earth: The Impact of Global Population Decline: Listening Notes

In the future, the global population will shrink, and it will exceed 7.5 billion in 20 19.

The population of Africa has increased more than fivefold.

Is population explosion the most urgent problem facing mankind?

No, population decline is what we human beings should be vigilant and worried about.

Historically, population shrinkage was due to passive reasons such as plague and war.

Nowadays, population decline is a natural choice for human beings.

The global population is about to usher in an inflection point.

The current situation of new global population trends.

First of all, new research finds that the population will not explode, but will decrease.

Malthus's population explosion theory has existed for many years. Overpopulation will lead to population collapse.

The number of children per woman in her lifetime. Developed countries are all below 2. Fertility rates in China and India are already below 2. 1.

The fertility rate in the Middle East is still high. But it also shows a downward trend.

The population of Japan is also decreasing. The population explosion theory is no longer realistic.

The population forecast of the United Nations Population Division was quite accurate at first, but then it began to be out of touch with the current situation.

With the improvement of data quality, the accuracy of modeling will also improve.

In 20 17 years, the United Nations thinks that by 2 100 years, the population will reach1500 million, which is a median forecast. Even authoritative experts admit that they are wrong. If it is a high-level mathematical model, the population will reach1700 million, while the low-level prediction is that the global population will drop to 7 billion by the end of 2/kloc-0.

The most accurate prediction that humans often make should be that it starts to decline after the peak of 9 billion, and the low prediction is more accurate.

Urbanization should be an important factor in considering population forecast, otherwise there will be errors in population forecast. For the economy, fewer people, less taxes, fewer young people, more old people, less labor, and more and more pressure on young people to provide for the elderly.

Population decline will not bring any benefits to mankind as a whole, all industries will become sunset industries, and knowledge innovation and update will slow down.

Second, what are the reasons for the population decline?

The urbanization of society has turned children from previous assets into current liabilities.

Women have gained more knowledge and more power to choose their own fertility rate.

Kenya's fertility rate has been halved, and Kenya's rural areas are slowly giving way to cities.

Many Kenyans still live in poverty, and many women put their mobile phones in baskets.

Many people who come out from the countryside to work in cities will live in slums first.

With the acceleration of urbanization in Kenya, the education level of women has been continuously improved.

The education level in Kenya is much better than before.

About 45% of women have received college education, and the fertility rate of Kenyan women has decreased, with an average of one child per woman.

A Kenyan woman with high education and high income, her future husband must have many cows and goats to be worthy of her.

Many young people want to get a good education, get re-employment, then choose a spouse and live an urbanized life.

It will take some time for Africa to face the problem of population decline.

The problem of population decline in developed countries in North America and Europe is already a bit severe. It is encouraging that the Swedish government has extended maternity leave to one year.

Men do more housework, so the fertility rate has increased again. At present, the fertility rate in Sweden is around 1.9, but it cannot maintain population stability.

Third, how to solve the problem of population decline?

One policy to resist population decline is to introduce new immigrants. However, the conflict between new immigrants and local residents has never eased.

Take Canada as an example and treat it as an economic problem. Does Canada like immigration? No, because everyone wants to go to America and not stay in Canada. Canada encourages refugees to emigrate, taking immigrant integration as a manifestation. From 65438 to 0979, Canada accepted tens of thousands of Vietnamese refugees. Refugees are not a burden but great immigrants, and privately funded assistance can avoid slums.

From 20 15 to 20 16, 50,000 Syrian refugees came to Canada. In order to alleviate the population decline. Every country should accept immigrants.

Canada is not a nation-state, so there is less self-awareness, and the lower the awareness of treating immigrants as others. This is a pluralistic and multicultural country. An active immigration policy can keep the population stable.

The United States is the largest immigrant country and the biggest competitive advantage in 2 1 century.

The situation of new immigrants today is very different from the past. If a large number of immigrants are introduced, the problems brought by immigration may be greater than the problems it solves. Therefore, the immigration policy has advantages and disadvantages. Not the most fundamental and best solution.