Visual Power Zhao: Electric vehicles have the properties of consumer electronics and energy.

The three-day "2023 committee of 100 Forum on Electric Vehicles" in Belarus came to a successful conclusion. Experts and practitioners from all walks of life made joint efforts for the electric vehicle industry in China and the world under the great changes and new trends. Zhao, president of Visual Power China, shared the "dimension reduction challenge" faced by the electric vehicle industry at the Power Battery Forum.

He believes that the development of the automobile industry is entering a new stage, and the "consumer electronics attributes" and "energy attributes" of electric vehicles are becoming more and more prominent. Whether we can fully understand and make products that embody these two attributes determines whether car companies can stand out in the homogenization competition and unlock the whole life cycle value of electric vehicles. Battery companies should also identify these changes in time, match the superior car companies from the dimensions of high-quality products, global production capacity and energy system layout, especially seize the rare opportunity of China car companies becoming the leading industrial export case, and grasp the "certainty" in the "uncertain" industrial development.

The following is the full text of the speech:

Good morning, distinguished academicians, leaders and predecessors in the battery industry. I listened carefully to yesterday's meeting all day, which was very enlightening. In addition, the battery industry and the electric vehicle industry have changed a lot in the last six months, and I would like to share some feelings here today.

A hot word now is called "uncertainty". Everyone is talking about it. I wonder, why are there so many uncertainties? I think there are two main reasons:

One is the "dimension reduction challenge" of the electric vehicle industry: "electric vehicles versus fuel vehicles" is just like "smart phones versus traditional function phones". In fact, we have experienced many "dimensionality reduction challenges".

Another uncertainty comes from homogenization competition, under which the uncertainty will be strengthened.

Today is the battery show. Who does the battery serve? Batteries serve electric vehicles, so be sure to identify the customers of electric vehicles, because it has changed too much.

Here, I share two points:

The first cognition is that electric vehicles are more than just a means of transportation. Its biggest change is that it has become a personal consumer product, which can even be called "electronic consumer goods". It will have a great attribute-the attribute of consumer electronics. Teacher Zhu, who ran at zero yesterday, also said that he came from the electronics industry and he was talking about the speed of research and development. Actually, let's take a look now. Why in the market of China, both new forces and many traditional car factories are making new energy vehicles very quickly, such as "BYD phenomenon"? Why? A large part of it is that the research and development speed of our China Car Factory is too fast. Although some platforms have been developed in the early stage, the whole vehicle has been developed within two years, even as fast as 18 months, some people call it 12 months, but I think it will take at least 18 months to develop. However, many traditional car companies, especially international brands, basically have a four-year cycle, and this speed will face great challenges under the attribute of consumer electronics.

Another trend is that software development is a whole life cycle. When your car is pushed to the user, the highlight of your software development begins. This big change is also in the field of consumer electronics, especially our smart phones and smart terminals, which have been verified in the past ten years.

Take Tesla for example. In North America, 285,000 people have purchased its FSD autopilot software package. At present, this software package is 1.5 million dollars, which may rise to 30 thousand dollars in the future, and will bring him 10% to 30% income in the future. We are optimistic that the real factory director's tail income in the future is software income, and the marginal cost of this is relatively low. As long as OTA is directly upgraded, it will become the main income of car companies.

I also talked a lot with some users of new car companies yesterday. Now they are also thinking that most hardware will be cheaper in the future, and more income will come from software fees. Because hardware costs money, you have to make a particularly leading performance and value, which is more difficult. Only software can keep your competitiveness, which I believe many car companies have fully realized, but there is still a long way to go from realization to realization. Tesla in front gave us a good example to learn from. This can also refer to Apple's mobile phone. At present, its software service income accounts for about 65,438+08% of the company's total income.

We are all talking about "software-defined cars". My feeling is that we talk too much about how software defines a car. In fact, the core of software-defined automobile is to pay attention to value creation, not the software itself, but whether the software creates value and can it bring value to customers? This is the most critical.

We think the greatest value in this is intelligent driving. Why can FSD be sold for 1.5 million dollars, and it may be sold for 30 thousand dollars in the future? Because it liberates our hands and brains and creates "time". Everyone thinks that commuting in big cities may take two hours a day. With FSD, I can "extra" two hours a day. I can combine work and rest for these two hours without having to work so hard. This is value-added. When we make products, we must bring added value to our customers, which is the greatest value.

In addition to "time", intelligent driving can also help us reduce "cost". It can help us reduce traffic accidents and reduce your scratching and rear-end collision. The car I drive has an automatic rear-end collision prevention function. I calculated that I had four potential rear-end collisions while driving, which saved me a lot of money and trouble and saved the cost back. This is its value.

The second value is the "smart cockpit". In fact, many of our smart cockpits are still conceptual. In fact, your smart cockpit must be cool if you want to give customers a good user experience. A key indicator here depends on how long your smart cockpit attracts customers to stay on it, that is, user stickiness. The next time a user buys a car or changes cars, he may continue to use this software because he can't live without you. This is the same as why everyone keeps holding the iPhone. Why use it when it's so expensive? Because of the user experience. Because your eyes are always on the smart screen, we have already measured this standard in consumer electronics. The more time your smart cockpit attracts users, the higher the user stickiness you can create.

Another particularly important factor in the era of consumer electronics is "face value". If the new generation of electric cars are not beautiful, no one will buy them. I specially looked at the development history of our domestic electric vehicles. A few years ago, the design of many cars was still "terrible". Now, our car looks more and more beautiful, but there is still a certain distance from the real foreign luxury car. Why? Because there is still a lot of room for improvement in design and aesthetics in China, we still lack many such talents. At present, the shape design of many car companies is still being done by foreign teams. The "face value first" consumer market will force China to invest heavily in aesthetic design, and we need to continue to invest.

As a battery enterprise, we must cooperate with customers with strength, pursuit and awareness of dimension reduction challenges, so that our battery industry can develop with him.

In addition, Academician Chen talked about the "four modernizations" yesterday. The first is energy, and energy is always the first. Especially after the sales data of more than 6 million electric vehicles came out last year, more and more people realized that trams are not simply electricity, but related to energy. It is actually a large energy consumption terminal, and it is an energy consumption space of nearly 80 to 100 kwh.

Just now, Mr. Huang and Mr. Wang talked about fast charging. I made an estimate. The average number of vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai is 5 million, of which 65,438+00% are pure electric vehicles. If you charge at the same time according to the most basic 50 kW fast charging scheme, you need 25GW, and the average power load in Shanghai is 25 GW. The fast charging of Shanghai power grid on this scale is unsustainable. This challenge needs to be considered.

Another point of energy utilization is the realization of the whole life cycle of batteries, because there are still many values of retired batteries that have not been utilized. It is necessary to truly reuse the retired batteries before recycling materials, and squeeze out 20% to 30% of their value. The demand for this piece will appear soon in the future, because the original total battery is small, and now it will be upgraded immediately.

You have seen the third Spring Chapter Conference just released by Tesla, which is about energy. Musk said: Give me 10 trillion dollars, and I will make the earth reach zero carbon; He said:' My ultimate goal is not to engage in cars, I am engaged in energy', which is Musk's speech. And now the cooperation between automobile and energy storage has achieved initial results. You can see that the combination of photovoltaic and powerwall made by Tesla in Australia can bring customers 130 USD a month.

Just like the curve that Ouyang showed yesterday, if there is no effective coordination, it will be an uncontrollable result. When your electric vehicle is large in scale, if the vehicle network and energy storage are effectively coordinated, the effect will be very good.

The V2G video we are seeing now was made on 20 17. At that time, I was making intelligent buildings, and I made a lot of intelligent energy storage in the future. Your building has an energy curve. When many of our cars enter the building, most of them are 80 kWh, 100 kWh. If you can do V2X and V2G well, we will hold a meeting here in the morning and earn 10 when we leave, because you may participate in peak shaving or frequency modulation, and frequency modulation itself will not harm the battery.

Why should I say this? Everyone must consider that it will have a dimension reduction challenge: we must consider that electric vehicles and batteries have strong energy properties, and now we have not realized this energy property. What you realize is not enough. Others will be the biggest uncertainty for you after doing it for a while, so only when you realize it now can you really do a certain thing and extract its value.

We have done a lot of energy storage, tens of megawatts and hundreds of megawatts. 100 MW energy storage can be directly upgraded from more than 65,438+0,680 retired 60 kWh battery packs. In this way, the battery can be stored for at least one year to one and a half years, and the additional value is 0. 1.5-0.2 yuan /Wh, which is my future price space.

Last year in committee of 100, I also said that the new energy automobile industry is a rare industrial export opportunity in China for a hundred years. Batteries and new energy vehicles going out to sea are called "industrial exports" because we are going to overseas cloth factories and going out with the industrial chain, especially upstream. In the past, Americans, Germans and Japanese developed automobile industry in China by building factories, not just markets. Just as the theme of our meeting today is "global competitiveness", global competition has pushed us to this point, and we should pay more attention to global industrial output.

What does industrial output do? Let the brand go up. Now, let's have a look. It's not completely listed here. It is impossible for China to become a car brand with more than 200,000. Over the years, with the improvement of our consumption level, especially the consumption power of the middle class, the proportion of cars with more than 200,000 vehicles in China is getting higher and higher. I have also checked that the sales ratio of cars with more than $30,000 in Europe and America is basically around 40%. Perhaps in the future, nearly 40% of the cars in China will be more than 200,000. No matter how many new forces in China or traditional car factories are aiming at the market of more than 200,000, there is room for profit and output value, so we should "brand up".

Back to the battery itself, how to make the brand go up? In fact, we have to meet the needs of these mid-to high-end models, such as the high specific energy and high magnification we just talked about. How to standardize the next product? This is the eternal theme of the battery industry. Through cooperation with Mercedes-Benz and other companies, Vision Power has achieved high energy density and fast charging on laminated square batteries, and we are also deeply cooperating with BMW on 46 series large cylindrical batteries.

And low-temperature batteries. We know that there is a problem of unbalanced vehicle development areas, and the main problem behind it is low temperature. After more than two years of low-temperature development, the products we have cooperated with a main engine factory have been loaded and tested, and the effect is obvious. After testing, the cruising range of the car increased by 100 km under the condition of MINUS 20 degrees in winter, which is the measured data. This result comes from our improvement of materials. Once the low temperature problem is solved, it can help to promote the regional market of nearly 30% of our land area, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles in these areas is still low due to the low temperature in winter. This low-temperature product will be put on the market soon. Through the low-temperature resistant battery, we can help the overall market growth of electric vehicles without reducing the energy density.

And globalization. We all know that Vision is a battery enterprise developed through the acquisition of AESC owned by Nissan. At present, there are 6 factories operating in the world, 3 overseas, 3 domestic and 7 factories under construction. At present, the second factory in Japan has begun to import equipment. Don't just talk about globalization, but also go out unswervingly. If you go, you have to go. If you don't go, you have to go.

Today, we often hear the view that the China market is very crowded, and the production capacity of the China market is already excessive. However, according to statistics, by 2025 and 2026, there will still be a capacity gap of 400GWh in overseas markets. The localization property of automobile industry's production capacity determines that whoever can meet the demand can get the first chance, and who can reduce uncertainty and improve certainty.

On the other hand, what does the last page want to explain? Don't forget the energy attribute of the battery: In 2022, it will become the first wind power enterprise in China to win the bid, and it is also far ahead in the world, with a global installed capacity of nearly 50GWh. What does this bring us? Let's get 1.5 kwh zero-carbon electricity. We have this ability, which can be used in most parts of China, even in the northwest 1.5 kWh or less.

We built a zero-carbon factory in Ordos, which is not a zero-carbon statement. At present, we have achieved 70% self-supply of green electricity through the scenic storage around the factory, and it is low-cost green electricity. Don't forget that the energy consumption of batteries and materials is huge, and this kind of electricity price saving can bring considerable cost space. The European Union began to levy a carbon tax on June 10 this year. At present, the price of one ton of carbon dioxide in the EU is about 100 Euro, and a battery pack is almost 5 tons of carbon dioxide according to the average proportion of thermal power in China, which is the carbon cost of 500 Euro. As the previous guests said, we must face global challenges. Aiming at the carbon emission challenge. Vision through the advantages in landscape storage and other fields. To make low-cost zero-carbon batteries to meet brand-oriented and demanding customer needs. Yesterday, BMW, Volvo and other international car companies talked about the goal of reducing carbon emissions. Indeed, this

This article comes from the author Bai, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.