Tesla's Immigration Vision

Changed Model 3? 25,000 dollars, a cheap new model? New generation product platform? Robotaxi？ ……

I got up at 5 am Beijing time with the "Chapter 3 of the Grand Plan" of Tesla Investor Day, but I'm sorry, what I expected didn't appear.

In 2006, the first chapter of Tesla's "grand plan" was to build a small but expensive car and accumulate technology. Develop an affordable model with the money earned and accumulated technology; Then use the money earned to develop cheaper models and provide sustainable energy.

Ten years later, on 20 16, Tesla released the second chapter of the "grand plan": solar panels, expanding the product line of electric vehicles, and developing the automatic driving ability through a large number of vehicle driving data; Enjoy the car through autonomous driving.

At this point, the goal of the first chapter has been completed, and the goal of the second chapter is on the way to completion. Perhaps it is precisely because of the basic realization of "bragging" that this "Chapter III" plan is expected.

Compared with the first and second chapters many years ago, this third chapter is quite "grand", and the keynote of the conference was set at the beginning: "Our energy economy is both dirty and wasteful". For Musk, "completely eliminating fossil fuels" is the real purpose of Chapter 3. As for the new model, new platform and new technology? These are all means to an end.

In this three-hour press conference, 16 spokespersons took turns to go into battle, basically "showing" all the fields that Tesla is currently doing and planning to do.

Therefore, although Tesla did not announce new models, new platforms and new products at the normal press conference, basically every sentence is inseparable from new products. Tesla's "cow" in the next decade has been revealed in this conference.

"completely eliminate fossil fuels"

According to the data given by Tesla, at present, more than 80% of the world's energy use comes from fossil fuels, and the effective utilization rate is only one third. Tesla's goal is to turn half of it into sustainable energy. According to the specific figures, to achieve this goal, it is necessary to realize 240TWh energy storage and 30TWh renewable power, covering an area of less than 0.2%, and the continuous investment in manufacturing needs 10 trillion US dollars. ...

In order to achieve this goal, Tesla has to do more than just sell cars, but change the world. Musk divided this grand goal into five parts to achieve:

1. Develop the use of renewable energy and drive the existing power grid through large-scale deployment of solar energy. This part can reduce the use of fossil fuels by 35% and develop 24TWh energy storage.

2. Completely turn to pure electric vehicles. This part can reduce the use of fossil fuels by 265,438+0% and develop energy storage by 65,438+065,438+05 TWh. In Musk's view, to achieve this part of the goal, the annual output of electric vehicles should reach 85 million, and the total sales of new cars in the world in 2022 will be 80.6 million.

(As can be seen from the figure, in addition to Cybertruck, Tesla has two "mysterious" models in the short term. )

3. The heat pump will be fully applied in the fields of family, commerce and industry, and the external energy of the house will be transferred to the inside, and the heating energy consumption of the building will be reduced to one third of the current one. This part can reduce fossil fuels by 22% and develop 6TWh energy storage.

4. High temperature heat transfer &; Electrification of hydrogen energy industry. This part can reduce 17% of fossil fuels. However, Musk's vision for hydrogen energy stocks does not include hydrogen energy vehicles. In his view, hydrogen energy is more suitable for industrial use.

5. Driving aircraft and ships with sustainable fuels, including Musk's Space X. This part can reduce the use of fossil fuels by 5% and develop 44TWh energy storage.

In Musk's view, if these goals can be achieved in 2030 and the annual output of Tesla cars can be increased to 20 million, then by 2050, the earth can achieve 100% sustainable energy (the small goal of 20 million cars per year has appeared again).

If the other four parts of these five parts are not clear enough, Tesla's future goal is clear enough for the familiar automobile field: to produce as many cars as possible with high efficiency and low cost, and to produce as much sustainable energy as possible.

"Reduce vehicle cost by another 50%"

In the past few years, Tesla's "cost butcher" strength and efficient production capacity have been learned by the whole industry. On this investment day, Zhu Xiaotong, who was promoted to global vice president of Tesla, announced at the scene that Tesla had just finished the production of the 4 millionth car that day, from 3 million to 4 million, and it took Tesla less than a year. Tesla's next goal is to produce a car every 45 seconds.

Behind this goal is the driving force for the upgrading of Tesla platforms and models: improving efficiency and reducing costs.

0 1

Reshaping manufacturing process

Tesla said that as the first generation product, Model S basically follows the process of "design-engineering-manufacturing".

In the second generation product represented by Model 3, automation has been added. Although Model 3 once encountered productivity hell, the addition of automation reduced the cost of Model 3 by 30%. A new generation of products represented by Cybertruck has considered post-engineering and manufacturing from the beginning of design.

At present, the automobile industry basically follows the series process of "die casting-body-painting-assembly". The delay of each manufacturing node in this linear mode will affect the whole production process. Therefore, the series+parallel assembly mode is improved, and each part is assembled after completing its own die casting, painting and other processes. Cybertruck, an angular stainless steel body, can skip intermediate links without painting and stamping, and each part goes directly from die casting to assembly.

(Series+Parallel Assembly Mode)

In the future, Tesla will adopt a more integrated die-casting body structure, and the improvement of similar manufacturing process can not only improve production efficiency, but also increase the working density of the production line. Taking Model 3 as an example, the improved operation density increased by 44%, the comprehensive efficiency of time and space increased by 30%, and the production cost was saved by 50%. The next generation platform and new products in the future will also adopt this reorganized manufacturing process.

This is what Lars Moravy, vice president of automotive engineering at Tesla, said: faster factory, less capital expenditure, higher output per dollar (faster factory, less capital expenditure, higher output per dollar).

02

Vertical integration capacity is full.

Both Tesla and BYD in the past, and more and more car companies are joining the ranks of self-research, and they are telling everyone with actions: having the vertical integration ability of the supply chain can truly have a weapon to reduce costs.

(From the first generation products to the second generation products, Tesla's supply chain integration ability has improved)

Starting from Model S, Tesla started the self-research of the vehicle controller, Model S started the self-research, Model Y developed 665,438+0%, Cybertruck developed 865,438+0%, and the vehicle controller will achieve 65,438+000% self-research in the next generation of products.

In addition to the upgrade of vehicle controller, Tesla's future products, whether it is a new generation model Cybertruck or Optimus Prime robot, the low-voltage platform in the electronic and electrical architecture will be upgraded from the current industry-wide 12V to 48V. Similar to the step-up of 800V high-voltage platform, the current of the platform will be reduced after the low-voltage upgrade, the diameter of the wire harness will also be reduced, and the cost and weight of copper wire will be reduced accordingly.

The new platform will also adopt the self-developed electric drive system, which reduces the use of silicon carbide by 75% and is compatible with all electrochemical systems. Electric drive will no longer use any rare earth materials. This can not only reduce the vehicle factory area by 50%, but also reduce the cost of electric drive system by 1000 USD. For the rumored $25,000 next-generation affordable model, only the electric drive system saves 4% of the cost of the whole vehicle.

In addition to self-developed innovative technologies to enhance vertical integration capabilities, AI innovative technologies are inseparable from artificial intelligence. On AI Day last year, Musk said that he would use Optimus Prime robots in super factories. At this conference, he emphasized that his AI is not a "show-off gesture", but a "real-world AI".

On the one hand, in the automatic driving link, artificial intelligence solves complex planning problems. At present, the automatic labeling system has been able to achieve the speed and quality that manual labeling can not provide; On the other hand, in the manufacturing process, the "Optimus Prime" robot will be able to achieve some fine work that the existing industrial robots can't do, such as "I produce it myself".

finally

In addition to the prospect of eliminating fossil fuels and the plan of extremely expanding automobile scale, this conference also confirmed the news that the fifth super factory landed in Mexico and Cybertruck was mass-produced and delivered during the year. As for the specific measures of these "grand plans", even the details of the integrated die-casting technology of the fuselage studied by everyone with a magnifying glass in the background of the poster were not disclosed.

Maybe there are some details missing. With the three-hour press conference, Tesla's share price fell all the way after a few hours. After all, people have been waiting for rumors of Tesla's new car for too long.

However, under the optimization of production efficiency and cost, the prototype of Tesla's next-generation platform and new models has basically appeared. As for when it will be announced, it depends on Musk finding the right "time".

After all, Tesla himself admits that "reducing costs is the key to making electric vehicles more affordable and the market is growing." For this view, I believe that the electric vehicle peers with fierce domestic price wars have a deep understanding recently.

This article comes from GeekCar Geek Car, the author of Easy Car, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.