What is the population distribution in Qinghai?

In 2004, the population development in Qinghai successfully achieved the predetermined goal. However, the cultural quality of the population is low and the population is increasing. How to realize the coordinated development of population, society, economy, resources and environment is becoming more and more prominent. Strengthening the research on population development forecast in Qinghai, improving population quality and controlling population growth are urgent requirements and practical needs for compiling the 11th Five-Year Plan, establishing and implementing Scientific Outlook on Development, accomplishing the goals of "two historical tasks" and "three maintenance and three development" put forward by the provincial party committee, realizing comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development and building a well-off society in an all-round way. ?

I. Basic situation of population development in 2004?

At present, the population growth in Qinghai has entered the trough of the third cycle after the founding of the People's Republic of China. The birth rate has dropped, the gender structure has been stable, the age composition has become larger, the population health has been continuously improved, and the level of urbanization has been improved. In 2004, the population development of the whole province showed the following main characteristics. ?

(1) The population growth rate continued to decline steadily, with a total population of 5.386 million at the end of the year?

The growth rate of the province's total population continues to show a steady and declining trend. According to the data of the population sampling survey of the Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the total population of the province was 5.386 million at the end of the year, a net increase of 48,000 over the previous year, with an increase of 0.9%.

The population entered the third trough after the founding of the People's Republic, and the natural growth rate dropped to about 9.87‰. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the population growth in Qinghai has reached three peaks. The first time was the recovery growth of the population born in the early days of the People's Republic of China and the peak of the population moving into Qinghai during the period of 1956 ~ 1958, and then it entered the low point of population growth. The second time was the birth peak 1963 ~ 1975, the highest annual birth population reached 1 19600, and the highest annual birth rate reached 52.08‰. 1986 ~ 1997 is the second peak of the birth population, and the peak of the birth population has dropped to108,000, and the highest birth rate has dropped to 24.94‰. Currently near the bottom of the third trough. At the same time, due to the remarkable achievements in family planning, especially after the full implementation of the family planning incentive policy, the birth rate is low this year. According to the population sampling survey, the annual birth population was 87,500, a decrease of 2500 compared with the previous year, and the birth rate was 16.32‰, a decrease of 0.62‰. The death population was 34,600, with a mortality rate of 6.45 ‰; The population naturally increased by 52,900 people, with a natural growth rate of 9.87‰, down by 0.98‰ over the previous year. ?

(2) The sex ratio of the population is normal, and the age structure belongs to adult type?

According to the sampling survey, at the end of 2004, the male population in the province was 2,764,300, accounting for 5 1.32% of the total population. The female population is 2621.7000, accounting for 48.68% of the total population, and the sex ratio is 1.05. 44. Compared with previous census data (1.982 in the third census and1.06.002 in the fourth census). This shows that the sex ratio of the total population in Qinghai Province is relatively stable and belongs to the normal range. ?

The sex ratio of babies born is unstable. From the historical changes, the sex ratios of babies born in the three censuses of 1982, 1990 and 2000 were 106.22, 104.36 and10.35 respectively. In 2006, 5438+0, a sample survey of population changes, showed that the sex ratio at birth rose to 123, fell to 103.03 in 2002 and rose to 103.438+0‰ in 2004. The unstable sex ratio of newborns should be paid attention to by all sectors of society, otherwise it will have an impact on future social development. ?

The age structure of the population belongs to the adult type, the working-age population continues to increase, and the aging trend is accelerating. Of the total population in the province, the population aged 0- 14 accounts for 23.32%, the population aged 15-64 accounts for 70.79%, the population aged 65 and above accounts for 5.89%, and the ratio of young and middle-aged people is 25.25%. According to international standards, the age structure of the population is still adult, but there is an increasing trend. Compared with the previous year, the population structure of the three age groups decreased by 1. 19 percentage points, and the elderly population increased by 0.55 percentage points. With the continuous improvement of the age structure, the working-age population in Qinghai has increased year by year, which not only provides abundant labor resources for Qinghai's economic development, but also makes the contradiction of labor supply exceeding demand increasingly prominent. According to the data of the fifth census, according to the international standard (15 ~ 64 years old), the proportion of working-age population is 69.05%, which is nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of the last census. According to China standards (male 16 ~ 59 years old, female 16 ~ 54 years old), the working-age population is 3,220,400, a net increase of 45 1400 over the last census. Our province's economic aggregate is small, there are few jobs, the cultural quality of workers is generally not high, and the vocational skills are relatively simple. In particular, some laid-off workers in state-owned enterprises are older and have backward ideas about choosing jobs, so it is very difficult to achieve employment and re-employment. Coupled with the transfer of rural labor force, the employment pressure of the population in the province is not light. At the same time, due to the family planning work, the birth rate has dropped significantly, and the social and economic development has improved the life expectancy of the population. In addition, the middle and late 1950s and the early 1970s are the peak periods for people to move into Qinghai, and this part of the population will gradually enter the aging stage. These factors will accelerate the aging trend of Qinghai population. A series of elderly population problems, such as the increase of retirement expenses and the increase of burden coefficient, followed. ?

(3) The population of ethnic minorities is growing rapidly and the floating population is expanding?

Qinghai is a multi-ethnic province. According to the results of the fifth census, there are 53 ethnic minorities in the province, accounting for 45.5% of the total population. The population distribution of ethnic minorities is characterized by large dispersion and small settlements. The areas where ethnic autonomy is practiced in the province account for 97% of the total area, while Hui and Salar people often live in small communities centered on mosques, while other ethnic minorities often live in one county or township, forming a unique living environment. Because ethnic minorities enjoy a more relaxed birth policy than the Han nationality, the growth rate of ethnic minority population is obviously higher than that of the Han nationality, and its proportion in the total population is also increasing.

With the development of market economy, the scale of floating population is expanding. The results of the fifth census show that the floating population in the province has reached 453,000, which is 1.45 times higher than that of the fourth census in 1990. Among the floating population, there are 320,000 people in the province, accounting for 7 1%, and 0/330,000 people from other provinces, accounting for 29%. Among the floating population in the province, farmers and herdsmen go out to work and do business quickly. ?

Inter-provincial migration of population is still a net migration. The net migration of inter-provincial hukou has been going on for 18 years. There are two main reasons: first, some employees retire to their original places; The second is brain drain, and many college graduates are employed outside the province. ?

(4) The health level of the population has improved and the quality of the population has been continuously improved?

With the development of economy and society, people's diet, housing, medical care and other conditions have been continuously improved, their health level has been improved, and the life expectancy of the population has been extended year by year. According to the latest census data, the average life expectancy of Qinghai population is 68.5 years, including 67 years for men and 70. 1 year for women. Compared with the average life expectancy of 65.6 years in the fourth population census 1990, it increased by 2.9 years, including 3 years for males and 2.9 years for females. Compared with 1984, the average life expectancy has increased by 7.7 years in recent 20 years. ?

The improvement of population's cultural quality is not only a comprehensive reflection of political, economic and social development, but also an important symbol of human civilization and progress. With the implementation of the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, the development of education and science and technology in Qinghai has accelerated, and the cultural quality of the population has gradually improved. According to the data of Statistical Yearbook of Qinghai in 2004, there were 48.9 college students and 55 1.5 middle school students per 10,000 population in 2003, increasing by 7 and 52 respectively over the previous year. ?

The change of population's cultural quality is a gradual process. At present, the illiteracy rate is still very high, and the proportion of people with college education or above is still very small. Improving the cultural quality of the population is an arduous task facing the population development in Qinghai. As a comprehensive index reflecting the quality of the working population and economic and social development, the employment structure of the population is still at a low level (the international community usually divides the employment structure into traditional, developmental and modern types according to certain quantitative standards). According to the data of Qinghai Statistical Yearbook, in 2003, 68.8% of the employed population in the province concentrated in the primary industry, while only 9.2% in the secondary industry and 22% in the tertiary industry. ?

Second, the future population development forecast?

At present, the province is preparing the "Eleventh Five-Year" development plan. According to the current population development situation, based on the data of the Fifth General Plan, the CPPS population prediction software system developed by China Population Information Research Center is selected to predict the future population development of Qinghai Province. ?

(A) the total population forecast

1. Birth population forecast. The population born in the future depends on the number and fertility level of women of childbearing age in the population. Under the condition of family planning, the number of women aged 20-29 and the implementation of family planning policy are the main factors that determine the total number of births. On the whole, the number of women of childbearing age in Qinghai, especially in the prosperous period, showed an upward trend in the first 10 year at the beginning of this century, reached a peak around 20 15 years, and then showed a downward trend. It is predicted that the number of women giving birth will be 439,600 in 2005, 452,500 in 2065, 438,800 in 2065 and 465,438 in 2020.

Three schemes are used to predict the birth rate. ?

Scheme 1 (High Scheme): A conservative scheme to predict the population born in the next 30 years based on the actual level in 2000 (total fertility rate 2. 1), that is, the continuous status quo. ?

Scheme 2 (middle scheme): Based on the full implementation of the family planning policy, the forecast is made in three stages. The first stage was from 2000 to 20 10 years ago. Due to the introduction of family planning incentive policy in agricultural and pastoral areas, the one-child rate has increased and the multiple births rate has decreased. It is estimated that the total fertility rate will drop to 1.9 in 2005. The second stage is 20 10 to 2020. Due to the inertia of population development, Qinghai entered the third birth peak. At the same time, the only child born in the mid-1980s entered the marriage and childbearing period, and two children were allowed according to the policy, so the total fertility rate is expected to rise to 2. 1. The third stage is after 2020. With the structural changes of married women of childbearing age and the progress of childbearing concept, the total fertility rate is expected to fall back to 2.0. This program is a moderate program to strictly implement the family planning policy. ?

Scheme 3 (low scheme): With the development of economy and society and the improvement of urban population level, the total fertility rate will gradually drop to 1.75438+05 in 2020, considering the influence of urbanization level on the fertility level in Qinghai. This is an ideal scheme that needs to be realized hard. ?

The three forecasting models show that the calculated values of birth population and birth rate in major years in the future are shown in table 1. ?

2. Prediction of death population. There are two main factors that affect the change of population deaths. The first is the age composition of the existing population. At present, the population of Qinghai has entered the adult type, and the population mortality rate is generally not too high and relatively stable. With the increase of the proportion of the elderly population, it is expected that the total population mortality will rise slowly. On the other hand, with the improvement of people's living conditions and the development of medical and health undertakings, the death rate of the population has dropped and the average life expectancy has been extended. Taking into account other factors such as the decline in infant mortality, it is estimated that the life expectancy of men from 2000 to 2005 will be 67 years and that of women will be 70 years. From 2006 to 2065438+00, the male was 69 years old and the female was 72 years old. After that, the average life expectancy showed a slow trend. After 20 1 1, the male is 70 years old and the female is 73 years old. On this basis, the death probability is calculated. The death population prediction model shows that the calculated values of death population and mortality rate in major years are shown in Table 2. ?

3. Total population forecast. Based on the above analysis and forecast, the forecast value of the total permanent population in Qinghai in the future is shown in Table 3. ?

(2) Prediction of population development trend?

It will enter the fourth birth peak around 1.20 15. From the table 1, it can be seen that the birth rates of the three schemes all show a downward trend, but the birth population shows an upward trend before 15, and the birth population reaches a peak around 20 15, after which the birth population can decline. This is due to the inertia of population development. The high-birth population of 1986 ~ 1998 gradually entered the marriage and childbearing period around 20 10, forming a new round of birth population peak. Due to the remarkable achievements in family planning, the peak value will gradually decrease, and the natural growth rate in the third peak period will be around 10‰. ?

2. Around 2020, Qinghai entered a period of natural low population growth. The forecast results show that the natural growth rate of the three schemes is decreasing year by year, but the total population is increasing, and the total population of the second scheme is increasing by 0.75% annually. It is estimated that the natural population growth rate will drop to about 6‰ in 2020 and enter a low growth stage. In 2039, the total population will reach the peak of 6.57 million, and the negative growth will begin around 2042. ?

3. Before 10, the labor force in Qinghai increased rapidly. Qinghai has a large working-age population, and its labor resources are on the rise from now until around 2030. By 2025, the working-age population will remain at about 4.5 million, especially before 20 10, and the labor force will increase by more than 50,000 people every year. From 20 10 to 2020, the growth rate will gradually decrease, with an average annual increase of 26,200 people. In 2030, the working-age population in the province reached a peak of 4.506 million. ?

4. The population of basic education increased a lot in the early stage, and increased rapidly above senior high school in the later stage. The number of the 7-year-old group reached a peak of 93,846 in 2020, and then decreased year by year. With the improvement of learning level, the school-age population has gradually increased. In 2005, for example, the number of school-age children attending primary school was 8 1524, the number of school-age children attending junior high school was 90,922, which was greater than that attending primary school, and the number of school-age teenagers attending senior high school was greater than that attending junior high school. Although there are exceptions to the trend in individual years, most years reflect this trend. ?

Around 5.20 13, the population of Qinghai entered the old age type, and after 2025, it was in the accelerated period of aging. According to international practice, the starting point of population type for the aged is that the proportion of the elderly population over 65 is more than 7%, and the population of Qinghai enters the old-age type around 20 13. Due to the immigrant population and the birth peak in the 1960s and 1970s, the aging will accelerate in 2025. During the five years from 2025 to 2030, the proportion of the elderly population increased rapidly by 2.57 percentage points, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5 1 percentage point, which was more than three times that of the previous 10. ?

6. The scale of population movement will show an expanding trend. The general trend of population mechanical change in the future is: the registered population is still a net migration, but the independent floating population is increasing. Judging from the history of China and foreign countries, the population of developed areas is bound to increase. Qinghai is rich in resources and lacking in talents, so a large number of people with certain qualities are needed to join in the development of Qinghai. Coupled with more convenient transportation, the reform of the household registration system is deepening, and it is more convenient and free to come and go. Migratory bird-like autonomous migration will become the main form of inter-provincial population migration in Qinghai in the future. ?

7. The number of Qinghai locals working and starting businesses in other provinces will increase year by year. In recent years, more and more farmers and herdsmen in Qinghai have gone out to start businesses. In the future, with the improvement of the cultural quality of the new generation of farmers and herdsmen and the change of their ideas, there will be more and more trends of going out to work and start businesses. ?

3. Population factors affecting sustainable development?

The core of sustainable development is people-oriented, caring about the ecological environment and natural resources, and ultimately caring about the survival and development of mankind, not only the actual interests and development of mankind, but also the future development of mankind. From the perspective of sustainable development, the main problems of population development in Qinghai are:

(A) high population growth and economic development are not coordinated

Qinghai is one of the regions with high birth rate and relatively backward economic development. During the period of 10 from the "fourth census" to the "fifth census", the population growth in Qinghai was 16. 1%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.45%, which was higher than the national level of 4.4% and 0.44%. In the next 10 year, our province will enter the third birth peak, and will not enter the low growth stage before 2025. The endogenous capacity of Qinghai's economic development is still relatively weak, and the denominator benefit of population growth has great pressure on improving Qinghai's economic strength, and the task of controlling excessive population growth is arduous. ?

(2) The low quality of the population is not in harmony with social development.

The illiteracy rate of the whole province is obviously higher than that of the whole country and the brother provinces in the northwest, ranking second in the country, while the proportion of the population with higher education is lower than the national level, especially the difference in cultural quality between urban and rural farming and animal husbandry societies. This situation seriously restricts the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, affects the optimization of industrial structure and employment structure, affects the improvement of productivity and the process of industrialization and urbanization, and also affects the reproduction of the population itself. ?

(3) The changing trends of the special population and the total population are not coordinated.

It is difficult to solve the employment problem because of the high increment of labor resources and long growth cycle. From 2005 to 2010, the working population increased by 50,600 people annually. How to transform abundant labor resources into real productive forces is one of the problems that we need to take seriously and try to solve in the process of economic development. The initial time of aging is later than the whole country, but Qinghai is a big immigrant province, so the progress of aging is faster than the whole country. In developed countries, population aging occurs at a relatively high level of economic development, but it is different in China. At the low level of economic development, family planning promotes the rapid decline of fertility rate, which leads to the rapid aging of the population and brings great pressure to Qinghai. ?

(D) population and resources and environment are not harmonious.

On the whole, Qinghai is vast and sparsely populated, but about 500,000 square kilometers is not suitable for population survival and development. The population density of Xining and Haidong areas with relatively good conditions is close to that of eastern provinces such as Hebei Province. In most areas, there is a general shortage of per capita arable land, grassland carrying capacity and per capita available water resources. The living environment of population is poor, soil erosion in the eastern arid mountainous area, grassland desertification in the alpine pastoral area in southern Qinghai, and the living conditions in the eastern arid mountainous area and alpine pastoral area in southern Qinghai are poor. The deterioration of the ecological environment in some areas has affected the survival of the population and has become a realistic problem facing the population development in Qinghai. ?

Four. Countermeasures and suggestions to realize the sustainable development of Qinghai population?

(a) to further improve the family planning work.

Family planning has been implemented for more than 20 years, and great achievements have been made. The total number of births in the province is 6.5438+0.4 million. However, due to the expansion of the population base, the pressure of population growth is still great. We believe that we must adhere to the family planning work. ?

First, we must strengthen publicity and education. Especially in ethnic areas and poverty-stricken areas, it is necessary to further enhance the people's awareness of ethnic policies, law, per capita awareness and science and education, and turn family planning into the conscious action of people of all ethnic groups. ?

Second, we must conscientiously implement the population and family planning law, bring family planning into the legal track, and strengthen the supporting construction of population policies and regulations, so that the population control work under the new situation can be based on laws, strictly enforced, and offenders will be prosecuted. ?

Third, we must insist that the top leaders of the party and government personally take overall responsibility, incorporate population and family planning work into the overall plan of national economic and social development, further improve the family planning policy, implement the reward and assistance policy, and strengthen the interest-oriented mechanism and social security system of family planning. ?

Fourth, do a good job in family planning services and improve the level of family planning work. To achieve "two reductions, one control and one elimination", that is, to reduce the multi-child rate, reduce the unplanned fertility rate, control early marriage and early childbearing, and resolutely put an end to super-family planning. ?

(B) efforts to promote the outflow of Qinghai population

Changing ideas, creating conditions and promoting the flow and outflow of population can not only reduce the population pressure, but also help broaden our horizons, increase our income and get rid of poverty as soon as possible. To this end, it is necessary to further establish and improve the service network for migrant workers, continue to do a good job in skills training, carry out labor export cooperation, expand employment outside the province, actively provide policy, legal, information and other consulting services for migrant workers in our province, and form an atmosphere of going out and breaking into the world, which will not only increase the income of urban and rural residents, but also promote the growth of leaders who are out of poverty and become rich. ?

Attach strategic importance to improving the cultural quality of the population.

The population problems, economic problems and social problems in Qinghai are closely related to backward education. Only by implementing talent development, capital accumulation and technological innovation can Qinghai give full play to its advantages in natural resources and form a strong sustainable development trend. This requires improving the quality of the population as an important part of population work. First, implement the talent strategy, so that more talents can participate in the great development of Qinghai. Second, vigorously develop education. First of all, we should strengthen basic education and vocational and technical education, put an end to new illiteracy and improve the quality of workers. At the same time, it is necessary to combine population development with accelerating urbanization, improve the quality of education, reduce the cost of study, and let more people in agricultural and pastoral areas, especially poor students, receive better education and cultural influence. Third, we must activate the existing human resources. It's never too late to learn. All kinds of organizations at all levels should become learning organizations, and the whole society should become a learning society. ?

(4) Give more prominence to expanding employment.

Employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Our province has a large number of labor, high growth rate, large proportion and low quality, coupled with a weak economic foundation, few new jobs and prominent employment contradictions. We should take expanding employment as an important part of the coordinated development of economy, society and population and put it in a prominent position. The fundamental way to expand employment is to strive to maintain the sustained and rapid economic development of the province, coordinate urban and rural development, economic and social development, and implement the five overall plans. In the guiding ideology of economic development, we should put speed, efficiency and employment in the same important position and give consideration to each other; In the adjustment of economic structure, efforts should be made to optimize the structure and expand employment, accelerate the development of non-public economy and encourage the development of labor-intensive industries; In the implementation of employment control measures, we should give consideration to market regulation and government regulation, improve the labor market, guide unemployed workers to change from "enterprise people" to "social people" and encourage independent entrepreneurship; In improving the employment environment, we should coordinate urban and rural areas, provide a fair and reasonable development environment for entrepreneurship, and establish an equal employment mechanism for urban and rural residents. In helping employment, we should give consideration to ideological and political work, employment training and economic assistance. ?

(5) Prepare for an aging population in advance.

How to deal with the coming challenge of population aging and reduce the impact of population aging on future social and economic development at a low level of economic development lies in strengthening the overall planning of the cause of aging in advance and making corresponding adjustments in consumption structure, housing construction, medical care, entertainment facilities and education for the elderly to meet the needs of the elderly for "getting medical treatment", "having fun" and "learning". Through the joint efforts of the government, society, families and individuals. Take comprehensive economic, social and administrative measures to properly solve the problem of the elderly population. Strive to form a new pension system based on home-based pension, supplemented by community pension services, supplemented by public pension facilities, and supported by social insurance and social assistance systems; Construct a health service system for the elderly that organically combines medical treatment, prevention, health care and rehabilitation; Vigorously develop the aging industry and encourage and guide the development of the elderly products market. At the same time, strengthen the construction of spiritual civilization, form a good fashion of respecting, caring and supporting the elderly in the whole society, and support the elderly psychologically. ?

(6) Strive to improve the environmental conditions for the survival and development of the population.

At present, it is necessary to take improving the living conditions of the population in the arid mountainous areas in the east of our province and the alpine pastoral areas in southern Qinghai as the focus of economic and social development planning, do a good job in ecological migration from the Three Rivers, attach importance to the ecological environment construction in the arid mountainous areas in the east with relatively dense population, concentrate limited funds to speed up governance, increase the construction of water conservancy, drinking water projects for people and livestock and cultural and educational health infrastructure closely related to production and life, speed up the process of water supply, power supply, traffic opening and radio and television in agricultural and pastoral areas, promote the construction of small towns in agricultural and pastoral areas, and strive to actively prevent the contradiction between population and At present, per capita arable land, available water resources and available grassland are very limited. With the growth of population, the per capita possession is declining. It is necessary to effectively protect cultivated land, develop water-saving industries, reduce the livestock carrying capacity of grasslands, and take the road of resource-saving development. The exploitation of mineral resources should be strengthened. In view of the fact that Qinghai is rich in resources, but the matching degree is low, the balance is poor and the development cost is high, scientific planning should be carried out, and it is not allowed to arbitrarily reclaim and mine. ?

Unswervingly protect and improve the ecological environment. The environment in which human beings live is deteriorating, which is nature's punishment for human beings. Protecting the ecological environment is the responsibility of every citizen and the premise of development, construction and development. We should implement the guiding ideology of "prevention first, protection first", pay equal attention to protection and construction, and coordinate economic development with ecological protection. It is necessary to take the carrying capacity of environmental resources as an element to participate in the comprehensive balance, and the ecological construction plan should be linked with the overall urban planning, land planning, population planning and economic development planning, and make comprehensive decisions on the basis of each other. From the perspective of sustainable development, we should control the deterioration trend of ecological environment, improve the quality of ecological environment and improve the living space of human beings in the high-speed economic growth.