The tourism industry has a pre-loss of 3 trillion yuan, and the entire industry’s capital chain is tight

Zhou Jieru

The tourism industry is a highly environmentally sensitive industry. This sensitivity is manifested in the fact that it is very vulnerable to the impact and impact of emergencies at home and abroad, leading to severe recession and landslides. , forming a tourism crisis. According to the academic classification of crisis events, the national new coronavirus pneumonia incident belongs to an "epidemic infectious disease", and the first-level classification is "natural and man-made disasters". Almost all segments of the tourism industry involve crowd gathering and social interaction. Unlike other crisis events that only affect a specific market segment, for example, international relations only affect the flow of inbound and outbound passengers, while the window period for epidemic infectious diseases will undoubtedly have an impact on the tourism industry. constitute a comprehensive impact.

1. The status of my country’s tourism industry in the national economy

my country’s tourism industry plays an important role in the national economy. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the comprehensive contribution of tourism to GDP from 2014 to 2018 accounted for 10.39%, 10.2%, 11.0% and 11.04% of GDP respectively.

In 2018, the comprehensive contribution of my country's tourism industry to China's GDP was 9.94 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world in terms of its comprehensive contribution to global GDP. The number of jobs contributed by the tourism industry was 79.91 million, ranking first in the world. First. It can be seen that China’s tourism industry plays an important role in the national economy and even the world economy. The more important tourism is to the national economy, the greater its impact on the national economy.

2. The impact of this epidemic on my country’s tourism industry

The impact of this epidemic on the tourism industry is the most serious, far exceeding the impact of the SARS epidemic in 2003. Not only because of the ongoing uncertainty of the epidemic, but also because China’s economic structure has changed over the past seventeen years, consumption, especially tourism consumption, accounts for a higher proportion, and the economic cycle is also at a different position, so the impact on the tourism industry is not that of SARS. The impact is comparable over the period. Moreover, the epidemic happened during the Spring Festival, and the tourism companies involved were forced to postpone their post-holiday resumption of work. The direct and indirect impact on the tourism industry was reflected in the Spring Festival Golden Week, the first quarter and even the whole year.

1. 1. Short-term direct impact

1) 1. Impact on the Spring Festival Tourism Golden Week: Major institutions predict that the number of Spring Festival trips in 2020 will exceed 450 million, which is 10% higher than that in 2019 The Spring Festival increased by 8%, with a market size of approximately 555 billion yuan. Due to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, this prediction value was instantly evaporated. Although there are currently no comprehensive statistics on the Golden Week tourism industry, its impact can be seen from the following data:

(1) Transportation data: There has been a sharp decline in the number of passengers through transportation channels: According to data from the Ministry of Transportation, 1 From October 10th to 31st, a total of 1.258 billion passengers were transported by national railways, roads, waterways, and civil aviation, a decrease of 20.6% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the number of passengers sent by railway dropped by 10.7%; the number of passengers sent by road dropped by 22.1%; the number of passengers sent by waterway dropped by 34.0%; and the number of passengers sent by civil aviation dropped by 14.4%.

(2) Number of travelers during the Golden Week (New Year’s Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year): If we look closely at the data during the Golden Week of this year’s Spring Festival, the decline will be even greater. The seven days from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year were originally the week with the largest number of trips during the Spring Festival. In 2019, the number of trips during the Spring Festival Golden Week (February 4 to February 10) was as high as 421 million. During this year's Spring Festival Golden Week, From January 24 to January 30, the total number of trips nationwide was only 152 million, a year-on-year decrease of 63.9%.

2) 2. Subsequent impact

From the perspective of the tourism supply side, the entire tourism industry has been affected. At present, everyone in the travel agency industry is unemployed, travel agencies are experiencing comprehensive losses, and small and medium-sized travel agencies are facing closure. Hotels are suspended, and the occupancy rate has dropped sharply in the short term. Operating income has been hit hard, and many companies are even basically closed. Flights have been canceled or grounded, and inbound tourism has been severely damaged; scenic spots have also been required to close, making it impossible to generate revenue, and passenger flow may not rebound immediately after the epidemic is over; the market value of tourism sector stocks has fallen sharply, and scenic spots, travel agencies, restaurants, etc. Industry stocks fell sharply; wages of employees in the tourism industry dropped significantly.

From the demand side, due to the severe situation of the epidemic, tourists’ willingness to travel has dropped sharply. In fact, before the notice from the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism was released, many consumers had already taken the initiative to cancel their travel plans during and after the Spring Festival to avoid crowd gatherings and outings as much as possible.

Therefore, at a critical moment when people across the country are fighting the epidemic, the domestic tourism industry is facing a window period or even an unprecedented industry crisis, and the entire industry chain will suffer huge losses.

2. 2. Long-term indirect impact

The indirect impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry takes a long time to reflect, and the lowest performance of the tourism industry appeared in the two quarters after the outbreak. The main manifestations are that the impact of the epidemic on the performance of the tourism industry lasts for a long time and has a certain lag, which shows that consumers’ willingness to travel is difficult to recover in the short term.

Outbound and inbound tourism may experience a period of downturn, and the extent of the impact will depend on the speed of epidemic control and the implementation of overseas control measures and tourism revitalization plans. The long-term indirect impact is specifically reflected in the following two aspects:

1) 1. The tourism market has begun to shrink, and conferences and exhibitions have been postponed or canceled one after another;

2) 2. Tourism psychology has changed. , public fear and worry have shaken consumer confidence and willingness to travel to a certain extent.

3. Challenges faced by the industry

Overall, the epidemic will bring challenges to China’s tourism industry, participants in all aspects of the industry chain, and international tourism cooperation. The main challenges can be summarized In order to deal with the loss of income, deal with cash flow difficulties, deal with the aftermath, and close international cooperation, etc.

1. Loss of income.

The domestic tourism market mainly relies on three time periods to make money: the Spring Festival holiday, summer vacation and the National Day holiday. Due to the epidemic, tourism revenue during the Spring Festival holiday has been greatly reduced, which is equivalent to a direct loss of 1/3 of the national tourism industry’s revenue. According to an analysis by Wu Bihu, director of the Tourism Research and Planning Center of Peking University, in the 21st Century Business Herald: "If we calculate based on the optimistic estimate of a 60% reduction in the three-month harvest period and a 30% reduction in the three-month recovery period, the national tourism industry is expected to lose close to 33% this year. Trillion yuan. ”

2. Cash flow difficulties For tourism companies, in addition to losses in business income, cash gaps are also a major challenge caused by the epidemic.

The cancellation of orders in a short period of time has caused upstream suppliers, such as airlines and travel product suppliers, midstream distributors such as travel agencies, online travel platforms, agents, etc., and even the cash flow of the entire industry to be very low. nervous.

If the strength is not enough to cope with the difficulties, they may choose to lay off employees or reduce salaries in the early stage. However, if the domestic tourism market continues to be sluggish for more than three months, it means the risk of the capital chain being broken, and most small and medium-sized tourism companies will soon It is difficult to maintain operations and will only face rupture of capital chain and bankruptcy.

3. Follow-up work.

After the outbreak, massive unsubscriptions have put various links under tremendous processing pressure. For example, online travel platforms and airlines need to rebuild free refund systems in a short period of time, and midstream links cannot handle the huge order processing volume. , upstream and downstream conflicts, tourism contract disputes, international cooperation, etc.

This epidemic constitutes force majeure. Due to the adjustment of tourists' itineraries, especially the cancellation and refund of tour companies, it also involves multiple industries, multiple fields, and even multiple countries or regions. What is reasonable? There will certainly be differences in the understanding of claims, tourists and travel agencies in negotiating and resolving subsequent issues based on contracts and relevant laws. Therefore, subsequent conflicts and contract disputes that may arise are potential derivative issues.

In addition, tourism is naturally international and, affected by the epidemic, requires a lot of bilateral and multilateral cooperation. For safety reasons, many countries or regions around the world have adopted entry management measures for Chinese tourists, and international flight and other information also changes at any time. How to protect the life safety and health of millions of inbound and outbound tourists and prevent the spread of the epidemic requires close interaction in the fields of visa, aviation, immigration, customs, public security and tourism departments, and requires a lot of bilateral and multilateral cooperation.

4. Response Strategies

In response to the impact and challenges of the epidemic on the tourism industry, China’s tourism industry should take response measures from the following aspects:

1. Government, tourism Industry aspects

(1)) Do a good job in prevention and control of the tourism industry

Continue to strengthen command and dispatch for the entire industry, and tourism administrative departments at all levels should establish a dedicated leading group to respond to the epidemic , adjust work arrangements in a timely manner, and do a good job in prevention and control of the tourism industry. For example, each tourism business unit is required to strictly carry out cleaning and disinfection, carry out scientific prevention and control, and ensure that domestic and foreign tourists and tourism industry staff are not infected in all aspects of tourism reception. A special supervision and inspection team was formed to go to various places to inspect the implementation. We attach great importance to the health and safety of inbound foreign tourists, and work with civil aviation, customs and other relevant departments to carry out prevention and control work.

2) (2) Provide special subsidies and support to tourism enterprises

Under the influence of the epidemic, the tourism industry has suffered heavy losses. Coupled with some policies such as free refunds and changes, many Enterprises have caused huge losses and cash flow difficulties. The government should help the tourism industry recover as soon as possible to avoid the collapse of a large number of small and medium-sized tourism enterprises, stabilize tourism employment, provide special allocations to the tourism industry, increase tourism development funds, and even loan programs.

3) (3) Formulate a revitalization plan for the tourism industry

The government should actively formulate a revitalization plan to promote the tourism industry. Tourism prevention and marketing should be a two-pronged approach to allow people to live as soon as possible. Return to normal status. Once the epidemic is over, a tourism revitalization plan will be quickly implemented to revitalize China's tourism economy, from restoring domestic tourism confidence to global publicity and attracting inbound tourists.

It is recommended that tourism administrative departments such as the National Tourism Administration formulate the following overall tourism revitalization plan:

(1) "Safe China-SafeChina" plan

Once the epidemic is under control, the National Tourism Administration will join forces with other related industries such as civil aviation, hotels, travel agencies, etc. to quickly launch the tourism promotion plan to eliminate the psychological impact of the epidemic on domestic and foreign tourists and reshape China's safe tourism destinations image. Infectious viruses are a potential safety hazard that will have a long-term impact on people's psychology and will leave long-lasting sequelae in people's minds after the crisis. On the one hand, the government should urge tourism companies to implement all preventive measures to provide a safe tourism environment. On the other hand, the government should restore public confidence and stimulate tourism consumption through transparent information release channels and communication methods. For inbound tourism, travel safety and security plans can also be improved. For example, during the tour to China, tourists can receive corresponding medical compensation if they are infected with local infectious diseases locally. It is hoped that through the protection plan, tourists' confidence in traveling to China will be built up. .

(2) "Enjoygoingout" plan

Launch and implement this plan to encourage citizens to go outdoors and travel across the country, thereby restoring the vitality of domestic tourism. After the epidemic, it is necessary to increase media publicity, strengthen the construction of high-quality tourism products, and restore and stimulate domestic tourism consumption.

After the epidemic, the government can implement measures such as free or half-price attractions, or it can cooperate with travel agencies, online travel platforms, hotels, etc. to provide consumption subsidies. While stimulating tourism consumption, it can also drive travel agencies, Revenue from transportation, catering and other industries.

(3) "Beautiful China" plan

Compared with revitalizing the domestic tourism industry, stimulating inbound tourism is more difficult. The global panic caused by the epidemic can be highlighted by various countries' restrictions on flights to and from China, chartered flights to Wuhan to pick up and repatriate their own citizens, and even the beating of Chinese students in Germany. In the short term, residents of various countries will not easily lose their impression of the epidemic in China. After China's domestic tourism industry is revived, inbound tourism can be stimulated by targeting factors that attract inbound tourists.

First of all, international tourism promotion must tell China’s story well and connect a number of Chinese tourism features and events in the global tourism promotion plan to promote the recovery of inbound tourism. Secondly, tourism companies can provide: more customized itineraries to increase the satisfaction of their itineraries; more convenient services, including air tickets, hotels, attractions, restaurants, visas, tax refund procedures, etc.; more attractive prices, etc. Attract inbound tourists. The National Tourism Administration can develop a set of incentives to encourage tourism companies to promote the "Beautiful China" tourism plan. Relevant companies in the tourism industry chain can cooperate and join forces to jointly launch promotional and incentive travel programs for major tourist source countries, such as discounted flights and travel package itineraries, as well as price discounts for various hotels, restaurants, tickets, etc. We can also target tourists from non-tourist groups to attract more tourists to come to China to promote themed tourism such as exhibitions, medical treatment, and study tours. We can also package and promote according to the market characteristics of various countries to meet the needs of tourists in different market segments.

(4) Strengthen tourism regional cooperation

Each tourist region across the country should open its own market, remove obstacles to tourism development, and create a tourism industry without policy barriers, market barriers, transportation barriers and Barrier-free tourist areas with barrier-free services provide tourists with a tourism environment with relaxed policies, smooth traffic, mutual benefit, and satisfactory services. Further expanding the intensity, depth and breadth of regional tourism cooperation will make all cooperation entities more active, the level of cooperation more abundant, the content of cooperation more comprehensive, and a win-win situation achieved.

2. Tourism enterprises

In addition to actively preventing and controlling the epidemic in accordance with national and industry requirements, tourism enterprises should also actively carry out the following self-rescue activities:

1) (1) Adjust the focus of work in the short term and strengthen self-construction

The epidemic cannot be calmed down immediately in the short term. During this period, tourism companies are bound to bear losses on their own. Tourism enterprises should take emergency measures, reduce expenditures, strengthen their own construction, strengthen internal management, train tourism employees, enhance competitiveness, build brands, take this opportunity to recuperate and improve themselves, laying the foundation for the next stage of development. To "turn disadvantage into advantage". For travel agencies, management and talent training can be strengthened, costs can be reduced, and new routes and new product development can be discussed; for the hotel industry, since the company is a big business, in the current difficult times, employees can be arranged to take vacations and conduct business training for employees. To reduce costs, you can also develop catering takeout business to increase income, and you can also lower housing prices to attract customers at low prices; for scenic spots, you can strengthen scenic spot construction, new product development and scenic spot management.

2 (2)) Cost control

For an enterprise, the security of funds is the basis for ensuring its survival in the market. Even with government support and help, the enterprise itself It is also necessary to digest the cost losses caused by the epidemic. Tourism companies of all sizes must evaluate and make decisions, including layoffs, business integration, corporate integration and other decisions.

3) (3) Pre-order/low-price promotion

Develop a pre-order/low-price promotion strategy in advance. After the epidemic recovers, tourism companies can better control costs and attract consumer spending through pre-purchase or low-price promotions, including reservations and promotions for hotels, transportation, scenic spot tickets, etc.

(The author Zhou Jieru is an associate professor at Antai School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and a member of the tourism industry research team at Antai School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

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Editor: Wang Yiting