What if Merkel wins the election but loses to "forming a cabinet"?

June165438+1October 19 With the withdrawal of the German Liberal Democratic Party from the cabinet formation negotiations, it marked the failure of the Coalition party led by Chancellor Merkel (composed of CDU and CSU), the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party to form a Coalition government. Some analysts believe that this not only brings variables to the formation of the new German government, but also challenges Merkel's ruling road.

Winning an election is easier than forming a cabinet! "Jamaica Union" is yellow.

In the German Bundestag election held on September 24th, although Merkel's coalition party maintained its position as the largest party in the parliament, it needed to form a coalition government with other parties. Since the Social Democratic Party, the second largest party, announced that it would not participate in the formation of the cabinet, since late June 10, the Coalition Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party began to form cabinet negotiations.

According to the plan, the parties should have reached a preliminary agreement in June 165438+ 10/6 and formed an outcome document. However, this goal has not been achieved.

19 is the last day of the exploratory negotiation stage of the four-party cabinet formation negotiations. Scheuer, Secretary-General of CSU, told the media that the central topic of the dialogue that day was immigration. The Coalition Party and the Liberal Democratic Party want to set a ceiling for the number of immigrants accepted by Germany, while the Green Party holds the opposite position. In addition, the parties also had heated discussions on climate, energy and fiscal policies. Lindner, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party, said that the differences between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party were too great.

In this regard, Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of China Institute of International Studies, said that the foundation of the Green Party is environmental issues, that is, climate change, that is, new energy. The so-called "right" of the Liberal Democratic Party emphasizes economic interests.

Some analysts believe that on the surface, the breakdown of cabinet formation negotiations is caused by serious differences among all parties, and its deep-seated reason lies in the division of various social classes and regions in Germany on various issues of internal affairs and diplomacy. Fiscal policy, environmental policy, European policy and immigration and refugee policy are the four most prominent key issues in this negotiation. These contradictions highlight the differences of opinion in German society on the gap between the rich and the poor, dealing with foreign population and culture, and dealing with the relationship between environmental protection and economic development. In the general election, the phenomenon that voters vote more dispersed than before reflects to some extent the confusion of German society about the future development direction.

Merkel expressed regret at the press conference held in Berlin on the early morning of the 20th that the Liberal Democratic Party had withdrawn from the negotiations. She said that the Coalition party once thought that all political parties could have reached an agreement by walking on the same road. The leadership of the Green Party criticized the LDP for failing to shoulder its responsibilities.

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Germany is in a political deadlock! It is doubtful whether Merkel can be re-elected for four years.

Elections and cabinet formation in Germany have always been regarded as a symbol of political stability in Europe and even the West. The failure of the cabinet-forming negotiations has undoubtedly brought variables to the formation of the new German government, and also made Merkel face the most severe situation in the ruling 10 years.

In fact, the election results of the new Bundestag in Germany in late September largely laid the groundwork for the difficulty of forming a cabinet later. Although the Coalition party led by Merkel kept its position as the largest party in parliament, its performance was the worst since 1949. Two months after the election, Merkel still failed to win a majority in parliament, and the breakdown of negotiations made the German government a caretaker government. This kind of political deadlock is not common in Germany, which is accustomed to Coalition government, compromise and knowledge construction.

What options does Merkel have after the failure of the cabinet negotiation? Will a new general election be announced? Cui Hongjian believes that if Germany holds an early general election now, on the one hand, it shows that the stability before German politics may be an illusion, which is not good for the entire political situation in Germany. On the other hand, the results of early elections are difficult to predict. The Social Democratic Party lost in the previous elections, which may drag down the support rate of the Coalition party and further decline. As a result, the relatively stable political situation that Germany has formed for a long time may undergo unprecedented changes. Merkel once said that it is irresponsible to talk about re-election. German public opinion also believes that once the general election is held again, all parties will suffer at present, and only the right-wing populist German Choice Party will benefit.

In order to avoid re-election, there are two options for the German political situation. One is that the Coalition party alone forms a minority government with the Liberal Democratic Party or the Green Party, which brings the problem that the new German government will undoubtedly face more parliamentary constraints in the future ruling process. Second, the Coalition party once again formed a cabinet with the Social Democratic Party, the second largest party in parliament, but the Social Democratic Party explicitly refused to form a cabinet with the Coalition party again, so that the initiative was once again in the hands of the Social Democratic Party.

Next, it will not be easy to re-elect the ruling partner, try to form a minority government or hold a new general election. It will test whether Merkel has enough ability to control the subtle changes in German politics, seek the knowledge of various factions, and then consolidate her ruling position.