Musk plans to send experiencers to Mars in 2024. What is the success rate?

Musk plans to send experiencers to Mars in 2024. There should still be a chance of success, but we don’t know the extent of the development of the technology and there is no way to make effective inferences. It should be said that since it is so public If it shows, the chance of success will reach about 80%.

If humans want to land on Mars, the first thing to solve is the mileage problem, because based on the engine power of existing aircraft, it will take about half a year to get from the Earth to Mars, which is too long. Now, humans have only two ways to choose. The first is to improve the power system of the aircraft in a short period of time to shorten the distance, which means to increase the flight speed, but it is unlikely to be achieved in just 4 years. , the second method is to put the human body into a state of hibernation, similar to animal hibernation, and directly reach Mars upon waking up.

The second problem is to solve the problem of environmental adaptation, because although there is an atmosphere on Mars, it is very small, much less than the atmosphere of the Earth. Mars itself also has gravity, which is stronger than the moon. There are many, so we can easily land on the moon and then easily leave from the moon. It does not mean that we can easily land on Mars. Mars can also easily leave from Mars. Human beings need to build certain infrastructure on Mars to resist the gravity of Mars and give people And the impact of flying equipment, because after people arrive on Mars, your existing technology is not able to survive for a long time, and you have to find a way to leave Mars and return to Earth.

After the two above-mentioned problems have been solved, the rest are some detailed and final things. The reason why there is no way to accurately infer how high the success rate of Mars immigration is is because we don’t know To what extent has someone's technology developed? Even if we were to take an exam and a classmate told us that he could score 100 points, we don't know the extent of his knowledge. Naturally, we can't say whether it is achievable or fictitious.