What is the best time for the French extreme right to win the presidency?

The presidential election is about to begin

There are still about two months before the first round of voting in the French presidential election, but a series of recent events have made the election once again confusing. First of all, at the beginning of this month, black youths in the suburbs of Paris were brutally enforced by the French police, which triggered protests and riots among residents in dozens of towns in the suburbs, once again exposing the long-term integration difficulties of French African-American immigrants and the tearing of suburban society. Last month, an attempted terrorist attack on patrol soldiers occurred near the Louvre Art Temple in France, which aroused strong concern of the French people about security issues. At the same time, the traditional mainstream political parties in France are also "leaking in the house". The right wing and party candidate Fillon, who are very likely to win the presidency, lost their popularity because of the "empty door" crisis. The left-wing Socialist Party exposed the problem of political division after the current President Hollande withdrew from the election, and Amon, who finally won, did not win the overwhelming support of the Socialist Party. The uneasy social situation, coupled with the depressed election situation of mainstream political parties, has made Le Pen, a candidate of the far-right National Front, increasingly popular, and has now become the number one favourite ahead of other candidates in the first round of voting in the French presidential election.

Is it the best time for the right wing to win the presidency?

Does the high vote mean that the French extreme right has the best chance to win the presidency? I'm afraid not. First of all, according to the author's observation, whether it is the recent suburban riots or the attempted terrorist attacks, their intensity and influence are very limited, and they have not changed the daily political and social order in France. It is expected that the impact on the election will not be too great. Secondly, the beneficiaries of the trust crisis of mainstream political parties are not only far-right parties, such as Fei Yong's "empty pay gate" and the split of the left. In fact, the fastest increase in support rate is actually the independent candidate Malone who left the socialist camp to start a business, indicating that the recognition of the National Front among the French people is still limited. Finally, the two-round electoral system with French characteristics makes the final winners always those candidates who are not disgusted by most voters. The fierce political opinions of the extreme right can attract many supporters, but at the same time it also attracts more opposition. Therefore, it is very difficult for the extreme right to turn the advantage of the first round into the victory of the second round, as exemplified by the failure of the National Front candidate in the second round of the French presidential election in 2002.

From a deeper perspective, the resistance of the extreme right forces in power in France comes not only from institutional factors, but also from the historical and cultural level. From a political point of view, France's national motto is freedom, equality and fraternity. Its political culture can be traced back to the French Revolution and the European Revolution in the19th century, and it has a distinctive universal color. Since the Third Republic, it has been rooted in France for nearly 150 years and has already penetrated into every corner of political and social life. The isolationism and populism behind the extreme right-wing political views are completely contrary to the French political tradition, which is an important reason why most people can't agree with the National Front. Historically, the Vichy government controlled by Nazi Germany during World War II was the only extreme right ruling experience in France and the most unforgettable memory in modern France. The leaders of the National Front praised racial inequality and anti-Semitism under Vichy regime many times, and put forward similar xenophobic political platforms, which made many French people associate the extreme right with fascism. Because of this, whenever the extreme right-wing election is bullish, mainstream voters will unite to vote for their competitors regardless of left and right. 20 15 The National Front was invincible in the first round of the French regional election and failed in the second round, which is the best interpretation of this situation. ?

Expert opinion?

In fact, although the National Front's political program is extremely inflammatory, it is not feasible. To a great extent, they borrowed the propaganda words of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union and Trump, put forward the slogan of "France first", and promised to restore the franc once they came to power, quit the euro zone, and re-implement protectionist economic policies. The National Front also claimed that as long as the job opportunities and social welfare of foreigners in France are abolished, the unemployment and social security problems of French people can be solved. The idea of the National Front is very attractive to the French underclass, who feel that social inequality is increasing in the process of globalization. However, people of insight can see that France's economic scale, market capacity and industrial comprehensiveness cannot be compared with the United States, and its economic prosperity depends more on its connection with the outside world, which is why Britain, whose economic scale is similar to France, should immediately start the strategy of "globalizing Britain" after Britain withdraws from the European Union. Moreover, France has been deeply involved in European integration for nearly 70 years, and all aspects are inextricably linked with Europe. Therefore, if we leave European integration and turn to self-isolation, the cost and harm to France will be incalculable.

To sum up, although the French presidential election was shrouded in riots, terrorist attacks and the crisis of mainstream political parties, the National Front did not put forward a feasible campaign platform. Moreover, the electoral system, political culture, historical understanding and other factors that hinder the ruling of the French extreme right have not changed. Therefore, when the "Trump whirlwind" blows in the western world, the French far right will gain more voters' support in this election, but there is still a long way to go to win the presidency.