When did China’s urbanization begin?

China’s urbanization is different from the human urbanization path in other countries and regions. It has actually gone through three major stages. The first major stage is the urbanization in the UK, which is driven by industrialization. . It took 200 years for Britain to urbanize. The second stage is the urbanization in the United States and North America, which was larger in scale, but it took 100 years; the third stage is the urbanization in Latin America and other developing countries, which was basically completed in only 40-50 years. After this process, China’s urbanization began. How is China's urbanization different from that of the United Kingdom, the United States, and Latin America? In terms of population size, China is the largest urbanizing country in the world with population transfer in a single country. During the entire urbanization process in China, more than 800 million people will be transferred from rural to urban areas. Moreover, because the country is large and the situation is complex, , there are many poor people, and the urbanization rate is lower than other countries expect. The urbanization rate is about 1% per year, unlike Africa's 3% or 5%. We think this urbanization rate is appropriate. More importantly, you can see that China is almost the only major country that pursues urbanization behind closed doors. When Britain was urbanizing, it had more than 100 colonies. These colonies accepted many British immigrants, thus reducing a lot of pressure on resources, energy and the environment. Latin American countries, especially countries like Mexico, have immigrated to the United States alone for 40 million people in the process of urbanization. But China does not have this condition. In the past, Deng Xiaoping once said that in order for China to be responsible for the world, we will not export refugees to the world. China strives to complete urbanization behind closed doors. Moreover, during the first and second urbanization processes, energy and raw material prices were very low. Oil was only two or three dollars a barrel. However, when it was China's turn to urbanize, the price of oil was very low. skyrocketing.

The dynamics and background of urbanization are also different. The first and second urbanization were driven by industrialization, but when it was China's turn to urbanize, the impact of globalization and informatization, including the need for industrialization in order to complete urbanization, led to China's population transfer and employment arrangements being relatively consistent. countries, this is the effect of China’s policy formulation. In the United States, a large number of slums appeared after the African population transfer occurred in the former employment arrangement.

Finally, it is China’s turn to urbanize, but when we urbanize we encounter very strict environmental protection requirements and low-carbon emission requirements, which is as it should be. But when we look back at the past, during the first and second urbanization, the leading countries emitted a large amount of carbon dioxide. Now that China is superimposing this on top, everyone feels that it is unbearable. However, the process of urbanization is bound to increase energy consumption and In the process of carbon emissions, China’s annual cement consumption so far is 40% of all cement production in the world and 35% of all steel; 2 billion square meters of houses have to be built every year to meet demand, so raw materials are needed in the urbanization process. , energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. It is impossible to complete urbanization without emissions. This poses a huge challenge to China.

?Challenges of China’s urbanization China’s urbanization has just entered the middle stage and has only completed about 47%. We still have 30 years of urbanization, and in this process of urbanization, we still have to With the transfer of 15 million people, carbon dioxide emissions have not yet reached the world average. However, if China chooses the wrong urbanization model, there will be a sharp increase in carbon dioxide emissions when we complete urbanization in the near future. This is very scary. There is no A Chinese person is willing to see such a prospect, and no one wants China to do this. The Chinese people are completely consistent with all people in the world on this opinion. We should find another urbanization path of ecological civilization that saves energy and reduces emissions.

In this way, you can see that we are facing more challenges now.

First, China is a country with water shortages and acute conflicts between man and land. The land suitable for human habitation is less than 50% of the entire land area, and what is suitable for human habitation and large-scale urbanization is precisely high-quality cultivated land. However, the per capita cultivated land is only 1.4 acres, and about 18 million acres of cultivated land are reduced every year due to urbanization; China The per capita water resources are classified as water-poor countries by relevant international organizations. Everyone should pay attention to the fact that the distribution of water resources in our country is very uneven. For example, in North China, the population accounts for 1/3 of the country, but the water resources only account for 6%, while in the southwest, the population is very small, but it has most of the water resources. . Compared with other major countries, China's water and land resources are only 1/20 of other countries' arable land, and only 1/20 of their water resources and forest area. Under such circumstances, what should China do? On the issue of resources, I can say this: China uses 7% of the world's arable land and 7% of fresh water resources to support the urbanization of 21% of the world's population, and it also has to engage in urbanization behind closed doors. For such a problem, we need 30 Years to respond.

Second, China has a very special group of "migratory bird" migrant workers, and their flow distribution is very uneven. China's land system stipulates that urban land belongs to the government and the whole people, while rural land belongs to collective organizations. This causes farmers to move to cities, but the land remains there. This is an economic mistake. , but in China it plays the role of an efficient social security system.

During this financial crisis, China's exports dropped sharply by 30%, causing tens of millions of migrant workers to lose their jobs. However, these migrant workers returned to farming, so no major social problems arose. However, this system is also being adjusted. Urban villages in China's big cities play the role of "slums" where many migrant workers live. Judging from the employment distribution of migrant workers in cities from 2001 to 2004, big cities play an increasingly important role, from 57% to 62%, while the attractiveness of small cities is declining. This has a very dangerous tendency that Beijing, The population of megacities like Shanghai will continue to grow.

Third, China’s energy stock structure is completely out of balance, and energy consumption in buildings and transportation has increased significantly. China's per capita oil and natural gas reserves are only 11% and 4% of the global average, so when developed countries used to use coal as industrial fuel and now switch to natural gas, their carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by half, but China does not have this Conditions, China can still only use its relatively abundant coal reserves, while China's natural gas reserves are very small, and it is impossible to shift the energy structure like the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States. In addition, China's climate is very cold in winter and very hot in summer, which is different from the world Compared with the average temperature at the same latitude, all cities are 3-15 degrees cooler in winter, so China's unit building energy consumption should be higher than the world average. Therefore, during the period of rapid urbanization, we had to build 2 billion square meters of new buildings, that is, 40% of the world's construction volume occurred in China, and the 40 billion square meters of buildings we built in the past needed simple renovation. As we all know, with the improvement of living standards, the consumption of our air conditioners and building energy consumption will gradually increase. This is a rigid consumption, which will cause energy problems in the future to be greater than industrial energy consumption problems and more difficult to overcome. China's per capita energy consumption is very low. About 40% of the energy consumption is due to the energy consumption produced by the production of foreign trade products. Therefore, China has transferred part of the carbon dioxide emissions from developed countries. On this issue, our per capita figure is very low, but the total amount is large.

Fourth, China’s motorization and urbanization occur simultaneously. Why are European cities relatively dense, while American cities are becoming less dense? I personally understand that urbanization in Europe comes first and motorization comes later. However, urbanization and motorization occur at the same time in the United States. With the exception of New York and Boston, cities in the United States are actually experiencing serious urban sprawl. Once urban sprawl occurs, the problem will be huge. What is very unfortunate for China is that, like the United States, motorization and urbanization occur at the same time, which means that China is very likely to experience American-style urban sprawl. Fortunately, China's land system is a "retention dam." The introduction of cars into homes is a temptation for everyone. Once they own cars, people can choose a wide range of places to live in geographical space. At this time, urban sprawl is difficult to stop. Therefore, China must maintain the basic stability of the land system at this time. It is a very critical policy to deal with motorization and urban sprawl.

Fifth, the driving force of China’s urbanization is unbalanced. China relies on industrialization to promote urbanization, resulting in a lag in the development of the service industry. As a result, industrial discharge pollution is relatively large. We have also experienced the water pollution and air pollution problems experienced by developed countries in the industrialization stage. Coupled with the insufficient sewage collection pipe network, industrial and urban sewage discharge has increased very rapidly. In the first two five-year plans, the Chinese government was determined to strengthen sewage treatment. The sewage treatment rate is the fastest growing in the world's urbanization process, rising from 20% in 1995 to more than 50% now. However, the pollution problem in China's coastal and other river basin areas is becoming more and more serious, and sudden accidents are very serious.

Sixth, China is a country with abundant natural and historical cultural heritage. However, during the entire urbanization process, it also encounters the problem of blindly copying foreign urban development models. We yearn for the urbanization model of developed countries, but that model makes our cities have the same style. Urban planning and design lack local characteristics. Natural and cultural heritage are destroyed. National scenic spots and nature reserves are the most essential world culture. Heritage and natural heritage, but protection is very difficult.

Seventh, the income gap between urban and rural residents is widening. China's Gini coefficient has exceeded 0.4. This expanding trend has caused the rapid transfer of rural population to cities, and has also caused the income gap between different classes to expand.

Eighth, urbanization has brought about the development of regionalization. That is to say, cities have become regionalized, and regions have become urbanized. Competition between cities has emerged. Some of this competition is benign, and some is bad. The Chinese have never encountered these problems. The concentration of urban agglomerations The degree of urbanization is increasing, and urban decision-making not only affects the city but also affects surrounding cities. Everyone can see that 20 years ago, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta were just two small red dots on the map, but now these red dots are connected together. This is a kind of regional urbanization, and there is an urgent need to comprehensively integrate urban agglomerations. Plan, design comprehensively, and guide comprehensively. China's Countermeasures In this way, we need everyone to contribute ideas and suggestions to the challenges China faces. This is not only a problem for China, but also concerns all mankind. I personally think of the following:

First, in urban planning we must use mandatory control measures to delineate protected areas for basic farmland to effectively stop the spread of cities, this disordered Spread can have very serious consequences.

Second, we must adhere to a compact urban development model and prevent American-style urban suburbanization. As you can see, during the urbanization that the United States has experienced over the course of 100 years, its population density has dropped from 8,000 people per square mile to only 3,000 people per square mile now, and it continues to decline. In the past 50 years, the population density of large and medium-sized cities in China has remained at 10,000 people per square kilometer, so all cities in China are called compact cities. We must continue to adopt such a policy, and this policy now encounters the challenge of motorization. If China takes the wrong path, results like the United States will occur. Low-density urbanization will bring car dependence, which will lead to car dependence. Due to private dependence, one American consumes as much gasoline as five Europeans.

Third, adopt rural settlement improvement to balance the pressure of urbanization and avoid African-style poverty urbanization. We cannot drive farmers to cities. The Chinese government has invested a lot of money to improve farmers' production and living conditions to balance the pressure of urbanization. This is a requirement for healthy urbanization. Many economists believe that farmers should be gathered in cities quickly, but they forget the ecological and energy carrying capacity. When it comes to energy carrying capacity, our data is completely different from that of developed countries in the world. According to our actual survey, the energy consumed by a city's residents is equivalent to three farmers. Chinese farmers still mainly work by hand, so their energy consumption is very low. China Farmers cultivate less than 3 acres of land per capita, which is only 1% of American farms.

Fourth, strict energy conservation goals and policies must be implemented. Building energy consumption will rise rapidly. According to our calculations, if energy conservation is not carried out, China's building energy consumption will rise from 350 million tons of standard coal now to 1.1 billion tons of standard coal in 2020; if we promote building energy conservation, we are expected to save 350 million tons of standard coal, which is a huge area of ??energy conservation and emission reduction. We now strictly implement the 50% energy saving standard for all new buildings and the 65% energy saving standard for large cities. We can reach the level of developed countries in two steps. Now I can tell you that more than 80% of new buildings have implemented this standard, but we are not satisfied yet and require more public buildings to follow the path of green buildings.

Fifth, we must implement a transportation strategy that prioritizes bicycles and buses. China will build the most subways in the world in the next ten years, with a total investment of more than 1 trillion yuan; the number of bicycles in China is now stabilizing, and is expected to gradually rise; China's electric bicycles have reached 120 million, and are growing by 30% every year %, already accounting for more than 60% of the world. Preferential policies in various countries favor electric vehicles, and China's bicycles play a big role in saving space.

Sixth, we are implementing solar rooftop plans and distributed energy plans. The solar roof plan provides a subsidy of 20 yuan per watt for installing solar photovoltaic panels, making China the largest solar panel producer in the world. At present, more than 30 million households in my country have installed solar water heaters, accounting for 70% of the world's usage. This alone reduces the emission of 20 million tons of carbon dioxide gas every year. Recently, solar water heaters have been sent to rural areas with state subsidies.

Seventh, we are taking steps to significantly increase investment in urban sewage pipe networks and treatment plants. It is estimated that RMB 200 billion will be invested in the next five years, and all cities and counties will build sewage treatment plants.

Eighth, establish laws and regulations for the protection of famous historical and cultural cities and counties. China has a history of five thousand years of civilization, and it has been preserved continuously to this day. It has preserved a large amount of cultural heritage, which is very precious. We are starting to do such protection work.

Ninth, we need to build a large number of low-rent housing and affordable housing to improve the living conditions of low-income families.

Tenth, regional plans are being prepared to build infrastructure in a coordinated manner throughout the urban agglomeration to ensure maximum sharing of resources, ecological environment protection, and pollution control. . More importantly, we are building a large number of low-carbon eco-cities. China builds about 50 new satellite cities every year, making it the world's largest country in building new towns. We are cooperating with many countries to build eco-cities and at the same time carry out ecological transformation of existing cities. For example, in Tianjin, we are building the China-Singapore (Singapore) Eco-City. It will take eight years to build a new city with a population of 300,000 to 500,000 on saline-alkali land. The use of renewable resources in this city will exceed 30%.

I would like to use this platform to appeal to all my friends that in China, which is at the climax of urbanization, we must learn from the experience and lessons of leading countries and reform urban planning and public policies based on China’s actual conditions. At the same time, we will make China's urbanization on the right track, adhere to the basic principles of resource conservation and environmental friendliness, and comprehensively promote green buildings, green transportation, and low-carbon eco-cities. We hope everyone will join our team, because only if China takes the path of green development, will the world be able to Will be green.

(Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Qiu Baoxing)