What is the relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries now?

Since the establishment of a good-neighborly partnership of mutual trust between China and ASEAN from 65438 to 0997 in the 20th century, the cooperation between the two sides has become increasingly close. In 2003,165438+1October18 ~165438+1October 23rd, Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong visited China. Goh Chok Tong believes that China leaders understand the concerns of many countries about the rise of China, which is not only a challenge brought by the rapid economic development of China, but also a challenge brought by China's growing political influence.

Based on this understanding, China actively extends a hand of friendship to all countries, making them feel that a prosperous China is a peaceful and beneficial force. People feel the acceleration of the "pulse" of cooperation between China and ASEAN.

China's first big move to participate in regional cooperation in Southeast Asia is to actively promote the "ASEAN and China (10+ 1)" plan.

Transport cooperation with ASEAN can be said to be the second big move.

265438+20th century: From the perspective of peripheral security and development, it is most appropriate to develop economic and trade relations between China and Southeast Asia at present.

Ding Xueliang: What I said last time was the explanation I gave to the Thai public when I gave a speech at Hosei University in Thailand on September 5 this year, which coincided with the annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.

When we observe China's economy, the first thing we see is the imbalance of regional development: some poor areas are in the primary stage of industrialization, a few coastal metropolitan areas are in the post-industrialization stage (mainly developing IT industry), and most areas are in the intermediate stage of industrialization, which consumes a lot of resources. Under this framework, if China wants to maintain a high development speed, it will rely more and more on external resources, so it is necessary to expand the international market of resources.

Secondly, as far as the domestic market is concerned, the production capacity in many parts of China is saturated, which means that it is necessary to increase exports-China has benefited a lot from its accession to the WTO, although it has also been countered by "trade wars" in other countries-and at the same time, it is necessary to take the road of transnational operation of enterprises. Developed countries did this long ago when faced with similar problems.

From the perspective of security, development prospects and geographical advantages, Southeast Asia can be both a resource supply place and a potential product sales place for China.

2 1 Century: What raw materials can China obtain from Southeast Asia?

Ding Xueliang: Resources such as rubber, wood, nonferrous metals and various agricultural products. China is increasingly dependent on foreign energy-and onshore oil pipelines, whether from Central Asia or Russia, are difficult to handle, so China mainly imports oil by sea, and Southeast Asia becomes the only way for China to transport oil.

Except for a few countries, most economic systems in Southeast Asia are market-oriented and underdeveloped, so it is convenient for China to expand its economic and trade relations with them.

265438+20th century: What progress has been made so far in the process of promoting China-ASEAN Free Trade Area?

Ding Xueliang: We need to understand: What does this free trade zone that will take shape in 20 10 mean? It is a big platform for more than a dozen countries1700 million population! In this range, first of all, products and technology, and gradually, capital and people are moving more and more freely; This provides us with huge space and diversified possibilities, creativity and development potential! China in 265438+the first half of the 20th century will jump out of the unusual "development dance" because of this big platform.

China's first major initiative to participate in regional cooperation in Southeast Asia is to actively promote the "ASEAN and China (10+ 1)" plan, and China is determined to become a long-term dialogue and cooperation partner of ASEAN. Of course, now "ASEAN/KOOC-0/0+/KOOC-0/"has become "ASEAN/KOOC-0/0+3", plus Japan and South Korea.

Japanese industrialization is ahead of China, but natural resources are scarcer than China, and domestic production capacity is more saturated than China. The demand for raw materials and products in Southeast Asia is more urgent in Japan than in China. Therefore, in this case, Japan is not willing to just watch China and ASEAN "dance hand in hand".

Judging from the current investment in Southeast Asia and the experience of Japanese colonialism before World War II, the relationship between Japan and Southeast Asia is broader and deeper than that of China, and Japan's experience in managing the raw materials and products market in Southeast Asia is also better than that of China. Therefore, Japan will not be satisfied with ranking behind China in this region. This is a model of long-term competition.

2 1 century: Japan's history as an Asian aggressor may make Asian countries wary of it.

Ding Xueliang: Although most countries in Southeast Asia have a history of being bullied by colonists, in Southeast Asia, the historical experience of some countries is different from that of China; Some people hate European colonists more, while others hate Japanese colonists more. For example, Indonesia has a better impression of Japanese colonists than European colonists; Thailand has a similar situation.

In some important circles in Southeast Asian countries, many elites in political circles, intellectual circles, media circles and business circles are very dissatisfied with American policies and styles. They believe that the United States pays attention to this region only for strategic security motives and does not care about the well-being of Southeast Asia itself. Sometimes Japan did some practical things to Southeast Asia, such as 1997 providing assistance during the financial crisis. This feeling is quite strong in Thailand.

265438+20th century: It is reported that the cooperation between China and ASEAN includes land and water transportation, agriculture, finance, environmental protection, human resources development, non-traditional security and culture.

Ding Xueliang: China has promoted cooperation with ASEAN, and has done several good things in Southeast Asia-the first one is that RMB will not depreciate1997-which has triggered a positive interaction. The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Initiative has received enthusiastic response in Southeast Asian countries.

The response of most industries in most countries is positive, and the response of some industries in some countries is worrying. They think that once the free trade zone is opened, the products that ASEAN can sell to China will not be as competitive as those that China sells to ASEAN, because the labor force in China is cheap. They also believe that the obstacles that ASEAN products encounter when selling to China market are far better than those that China products encounter when selling to ASEAN countries.

For example, China is now open to "individual outbound travel". In Thailand, many China tourists go there and travel as international "profiteers". He took a lot of China goods to Thailand and set up a stall on the roadside. As long as he can sell it, he can not only earn back the travel expenses, but also make a lot of money. However, it is impossible for Thai tourists to come to China, because the industrial and commercial authorities in China will not allow them to set up stalls on the roads in China.

"2 1 century": It is reported that the Kunming Highway jointly built by China, Laos, Thailand and ADB will be started soon. China also proposed the "Asian Highway Network" plan. After the East Route of Trans-Asian Railway is determined by ASEAN, China will transform its domestic routes.

Ding Xueliang: The transportation cooperation between China and ASEAN can be said to be the second big move. There is a historical origin here, that is, the "Eurasian artery" was conceived for more than 0/00 years: starting from Singapore Port, passing through Southeast Asia, entering China-coming in from the southwest border and going out from the northwest border-and then passing through Central Asia and Russia, reaching the port of Rotterdam in Europe.

The envisaged railway has ready-made railway lines in most areas of most countries. Now we have to do two things, one is to modernize the aging railway line, and the other is to connect the sections that are not connected. The Eurasian arterial railway passes through many countries or regions, involving political, military and ethnic relations there. Therefore, this railway line has not been fully implemented.

Another project of Southeast Asia transportation network is actually being done, namely Kunming-Bangkok high-grade highway, which is the main road of Greater Mekong Subregion cooperation. This road is basically ready-made in Thailand, and it only needs to be widened and reinforced. In China, the highway from Kunming to Yuxi is already very good, and the highway in Xishuangbanna is under construction. The hardest part is the section from Yuanjiang to Mojiang, which is the bottleneck of Kunming Highway because of its steep terrain and difficult construction. Now, this section of the road is advancing inch by inch, and it is expected to open to traffic in 2005. In the face of huge natural obstacles and technical difficulties, the perseverance of Chinese builders is touching!

Kunming Highway passes through Laos, where the level of economic development is low and it is not very active. To this end, China proposed to invest 30 million US dollars for the construction of Laos section, including interest-free loans and grants, and provide technology and manpower to help build roads.

2 1 century: How strong is the economic complementarity between China and Southeast Asia?

Ding Xueliang: At present, the countries with demand and ability to pay for China products are mainly Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, as well as some regions and departments in Vietnam, Myanmar and Indonesia. There are also 200 million people in this market. If we consider the comprehensive economic and social effects brought by transnational transportation networks, it will be considerable.

Southeast Asia is worried about the competitiveness of China's industrial products, because its economic development is comparable to that of China. I suggest to the Thai side: in view of the great geographical differences in China, some of their products, such as fragrant rice, are easier to sell in the southeast coastal areas of China; Not suitable for the central and western regions. Another example is tropical fruits in Southeast Asia, which are very good consumer goods for large and medium-sized cities in China, because there is no such variety there; In underdeveloped areas of China, many people can't afford it. I also suggest that the service industry in Southeast Asia can develop in China.

265438+20th century: What progress has been made in deepening China-ASEAN cooperation and cooperation in the cultural field?

Ding Xueliang: Southeast Asian countries attach great importance to the competition with China products, but most of them don't know the detailed and timely situation of China except Singapore. I suggest that they strengthen their research on China; China is so big and changing so fast. They should choose several better universities in the west of China-Kunming, Chengdu, Chongqing and Xi 'an-to exchange students and teachers with the better universities in Southeast Asia regularly, and cooperate to cultivate talents in business and law. The economic level and living expenses of the two sides are similar, and exchanges and cooperation are easy, which will produce comprehensive benefits. Thailand has now chosen Empress Dowager University in northern Thailand as the base for studying China, and Hosei University in Bangkok and Chulalongkorn University also have institutions for studying China.

At present, important media in China have begun to set up outlets in Southeast Asian countries. Domestic news organizations have made great efforts in this regard and established partnerships with other media organizations to increase Southeast Asia's understanding of China.

Southeast Asian countries feel the threat of "economic war" against the rise of China. Most of China's products are not high in science and technology, and the products of Southeast Asian countries are at the same level. Studies have shown that the repetition rate of product exports between China and the United States is about 6%, and economic wars cannot be fought; The export repetition rate of Chinese and Japanese products is about 10%, and the economic war is also difficult to fight. However, the export duplication rate between China and Southeast Asian countries is as high as 60%, and there is indeed competition for the market.

Therefore, in this regard, China should continuously introduce important measures to ease their concerns about the development of China. China let their various agricultural products freely enter the China market first, which is very "warm-hearted" in itself. If China pays attention to getting along with them in this way in the future, it will greatly dilute the "China economic threat theory".