Paper: The impact of the global financial turmoil on China garment enterprises?

There are various indications that a new round of "shuffling" era has arrived in China's clothing market in the future, and market segmentation will follow. China's clothing market will be full of drama. For many manufacturers, opportunities and challenges coexist.

"Shuffle" brings market differentiation

In recent years, with the continuous expansion of domestic demand and rising price index, domestic demand has really become the driving force for the development of China garment industry. Domestic enterprises are maturing, international famous brands flock in, more overseas brands are eager to try the China market, and domestic small and medium-sized enterprises are looking for a way to survive in the cracks. Therefore, it can be judged that a new round of "shuffling" era has arrived in China's clothing market in the future.

With "shuffling" comes "market segmentation". In fact, this round of market segmentation is not only limited to the further segmentation of varieties, grades and regions, but also characterized by the deep segmentation of product styles and consumer groups. Therefore, it can be judged that this round of segmentation not only provides a rare opportunity for the survival and development of brands, but also creates conditions for the multi-brand development of enterprises. In this process, processors and distributors will be further divided, export-oriented enterprises and overseas brands will enter China, and market competition will be further intensified.

Need to be alert to the export crisis

It is worth noting that this year, the clothing industry will also face the impact of "export tax rebate reduction". Although the last round of export tax rebate reduction does not involve clothing products, it is still possible to reduce it.

The national development and reform commission estimates that the export tax rebate for ordinary clothing products will be reduced by 2 percentage points, and the profit of enterprises will be reduced by more than 15 percentage points. Once the export tax rebate is adjusted, it will inevitably lead to certain turmoil, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises that mainly produce road products and have low bargaining power. Although the reduction of export tax rebate can optimize the enterprise structure of the industry and promote industrial upgrading in the long run, in the short run, enterprises and industries should plan ahead and make preparations in advance.

In fact, in addition to the impact of export tax rebates, experts said that this year's service industry should actively respond to the potential crisis brought about by rapid export growth.

Experts here said that 2007 was the year of China-EU Memorandum, and the EU paid close attention to the export trend of China's textiles and clothing to Europe and even the world. Despite the quota restrictions of the European Union and the United States, in 2006, the growth of China's clothing export value still exceeded that of 2003, creating a record high. However, at the beginning of the year, the EU industry asked China to take self-restraint and other measures to control exports after the expiration of the restrictions in 2007, and the United States is also closely watching the trends in China and Europe. Clothing is a high-risk product in trade protection, and the rapid growth of exports is bound to aggravate the rise of trade protectionism.

In addition, technical barriers can not be ignored, and the European Union has successively promulgated relevant bills to improve the requirements for imported products. In 2006, the recall frequency of clothing products made in China increased significantly in the United States, especially in the name of "safety", and the recall of children's clothes, baby clothes and articles made in China was very frequent.

The financial turmoil in the United States will inevitably aggravate the credit crunch in the real economy, and the turmoil in global financial institutions will directly impact the financial markets and real economy in many countries, including the local textile industry. The slowdown in China's export growth is mainly concentrated in traditional labor-intensive enterprises, the most typical of which is the clothing industry.

The spread of the US financial crisis has two main impacts on China's textile industry: First, the proportion of the United States in the global market has shrunk; The second is to shrink the global market. It is predicted that the textile export of China will slow down further in June 5438+ 10 or June 5438+065438+ 10 this year.

The impact on China's manufacturing industry depends on several aspects. The first aspect is the rescue policy of the United States. The rescue of the American market mainly depends on the government's central bank lending money to the financial system to maintain their survival. This will lead to a substantial increase in the money supply, the depreciation of the dollar, and a sharp rise in oil prices. Our Asia is dominated by manufacturing, which has a great influence on us.

The second aspect is to look at the demand. In the United States, Japan or Europe, its demand will decline. Our economy is driven by exports. Although the impact of exports on the overall economy is lagging behind, it may not be felt for a while, but it will be felt after a while, so this is a very huge economic downturn and will have a great impact on the world.

The dollar will weaken in the banking recession, and now it has become a huge constraint on the prosperity and development of the world economy. Because of the falling dollar, the purchasing power of American residents has fallen sharply, and the demand for products from China is weak, which is the first impact. This kind of influence is enough to blow the overall economic development momentum of China. At the same time, a stronger RMB will inevitably raise the overall price level of China's exports to the United States, which will also affect the economic situation in China.

I don't want this financial storm to hurt China. Obviously, the impact of this storm on China's trade will not be too great. If every family in the world shows slow or negative income growth, but they still want to buy clothes, toys, tools or kitchen appliances, they will buy cheaper products, which are likely to come from China.

Point, that is, the impact of the US economic slowdown on China's economic exports and growth. The decline in GDP growth in the United States will not only directly affect China's exports, but also affect the economic growth of other countries, especially now that the global economy is slowing down and the economies of Europe and Japan are worse than expected, which will affect China's exports. The decline of exports may lead to the decline of GDP, investment and imports, and through these changes, China's economic growth will be affected. Researchers at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the China Academy of Social Sciences preliminarily estimate that the impact of the US economic slowdown on China is: if the US economic growth rate slows down by 0.7 percentage points, China's economic growth rate will drop by 0.94 percentage points; If the US economic growth slows down by 1.7 percentage points, China's economic growth will drop by 2.28 percentage points.

The impact on import and export is indirect. After the expectations and confidence in the future are affected, they may become more pessimistic and the situation of excess liquidity will be reversed. Once there is a shortage of liquidity, the problem will be serious, and many enterprises will not get loans, which will affect their exports. "

We can understand the impact of this crisis on China from two aspects: export and import. On the export side, under the impact of the financial crisis, the US economy is still likely to decline in the second half of the year, which will lead to the continued decline of its national consumption power and desire, while investment expenditure will increase, which is not good news for China's foreign trade exports. If the consumer demand of American citizens decreases and the manufacturing industry gradually recovers its vitality due to the increase in investment, it will inevitably reduce the number of goods imported from China.

It can be predicted that the external environment of China's macro-economy will be more severe due to the financial turmoil sweeping Wall Street. According to the import and export data of the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export slowed down obviously in the first eight months of this year. As the United States is the largest export market for China's goods, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports, which surged once in June and July, will be tested again. The decline in external demand means that the demand of foreign consumers for high value-added products and low value-added products will decline at the same time. In this environment, exporters may not have the motivation to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of China's export enterprises.

On the import side, the policy of weak dollar seems to have been recognized by the market in the short term. As a result, the cost of importing goods denominated in US dollars in China has also increased greatly.