Analysis of natural gas supply and demand situation in

(A) the status of natural gas resources in the world

By the end of 2009, the global remaining proven natural gas reserves were 187.49 trillion cubic meters (table 1), an increase of 1.0% over the previous year. According to the current mining level, the remaining natural gas reserves in the world can be mined for 62.8 years. Resources are mainly concentrated in Russia and the Middle East. Regionally, the Middle East is the region with the richest natural gas resources in the world, with 76.2 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 40.6% of the world. From a national perspective, Russia has proven natural gas reserves of 44.38 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 23.7% of the world's reserves, ranking first in the world; Iran's proven natural gas reserves are 29.6 1 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 15.8% of the world's natural gas reserves, ranking second; Qatar's natural gas reserves are 25.37 trillion cubic meters, accounting for 13.5% of the world's reserves, ranking third. These three countries account for 53.0% of the world's total natural gas reserves (Figure 1). At the same time, according to the output of various countries in 2009, the remaining recoverable life of Russia is 84. 1 year, which is the longest among the main natural gas resources. The available data show that the world's natural gas reserves are basically increasing, but the growth rate is not large, and the average annual growth rate in the past 10 years is less than 3.0%.

Figure1Distribution of global proven recoverable reserves of natural gas in 2009

Table1Distribution of Natural Gas Resources in Major Countries in the World in 2009

Source: BP Review of World Energy Statistics, 20 10/0,7.

(B) China's natural gas resources

By the end of 2009, the remaining technically recoverable reserves of natural gas in China were 3.7 trillion cubic meters (of which the remaining economically recoverable reserves were 2.8 trillion cubic meters), an increase of 8.8% over the previous year. The natural gas output is 84.07 billion cubic meters, and the newly proven technical recoverable reserves are 38610.60 billion cubic meters. The newly-increased proven technical recoverable reserves mainly come from PetroChina Changqing Sulige (1 127 billion cubic meters), PetroChina Tarim Tazhong Phase I (88.8 billion cubic meters), PetroChina Southwest Hechuan (5 billion/kloc-0 billion cubic meters), Sinopec Southwest Xinchang (48.4 billion cubic meters) and CNOOC Shenzhen Liwan (344.4 billion cubic meters). In recent years, the remaining technically recoverable natural gas reserves in China have maintained a relatively stable growth trend, with an increase of 8.8% in 2009 over the previous year. However, the natural gas reserves in China are characterized by uneven distribution and unsatisfactory quality, which makes exploration and development more difficult and production costs higher (Table 2; Figure 2).

Analysis and Research on the Supply and Demand Situation of Major Mineral Products in China in 2009

Figure 2 Distribution Table of Remaining Economically Recoverable Natural Gas Reserves in China in 2009 and Distribution Unit of Natural Gas Reserves in China in 2009: 100 million cubic meters.

Figure 3 Changes of remaining (technical) recoverable reserves of natural gas in China from 2000 to 2009.

In recent years, the development of natural gas resources in China has been in the process of development and growth. The investment in natural gas resources exploration has increased year by year, and new resource reserves have been continuously discovered. In 2009, the remaining technically recoverable reserves of natural gas increased by 8.8% over the previous year (Figure 3). Judging from the current situation, China's natural gas resources reserves will further increase in the future. On the one hand, the exploration degree of natural gas resources in China is low, and there is still great exploration prospect; On the other hand, China's energy demand potential is huge, and there is a big oil resource gap within the oil and gas resource system, and natural gas can make up for this gap to a great extent. At the same time, natural gas, as a clean energy source, has good development potential.

Second, the production situation at home and abroad

(1) World Natural Gas Production Situation

Affected by the global financial crisis, the world natural gas production showed a downward trend in 2009, with a total output of about 2.99 trillion cubic meters, down 2.4% year-on-year. The United States and Russia are still major natural gas producers, and their natural gas production accounted for 37.5% of the world total in 2009. However, Russia's output decreased significantly in 2009, reaching 12.3%, while the United States still had a growth of 3.3%. The main reason is that Russia is a big exporter of natural gas, and overseas demand accounts for a large proportion of its total demand. Due to the global economic crisis, overseas demand is weak, leading to a decline in domestic output. The natural gas supply in the United States depends on imports, so domestic natural gas production is less affected. In addition, among the countries with the top output of 10, Iran and Qatar increased significantly, reaching 12.8% and 16.0% respectively (Table 3).

Table 3 World Natural Gas Production from 2004 to 2009

Source: BP World Energy Statistics Review, 20 10.

Regionally, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region are still the main growth regions. In 2009, the natural gas production in the Middle East reached 407.2 billion cubic meters, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year. The output of the Asia-Pacific region was 438.4 billion cubic meters, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. The growth point mainly comes from India and Australia, with an increase of 28.9% and 1 1.0% respectively.

(B) China natural gas production situation

China's natural gas production keeps growing, and in 2009, China's natural gas production reached 83 billion cubic meters (Table 4; Figure 4), a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. From the perspective of regional distribution, China's natural gas production is mainly concentrated in the western region. The data show that Changqing, Tarim and Southwest gas fields (enterprises) of China Petroleum Group are the main suppliers of natural gas, accounting for 62.7% of the national total, and more than 80% of domestic natural gas production is concentrated in China Petroleum Group. In 2009, China Petroleum Group produced 68.32 billion cubic meters of natural gas, an increase of 65.438+00.7% over the previous year. In addition, the output of China Petrochemical Group and China Offshore Oil Corporation is 8.328 billion cubic meters and 7.477 billion cubic meters respectively.

Table 4 Natural Gas Production in China from 2004 to 2009

Source: China Oil and Gas Group Corporation; Sinopec group; China Offshore Oil Company; China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association

Note: "National total" data comes from the National Bureau of Statistics, and the statistical caliber is slightly different.

Figure 4 Changes of natural gas production and consumption in China from 2000 to 2009.

Judging from the growth trend of natural gas production in recent years, the performance of various regions in China is different. In 2009, the natural gas output of Changqing, one of the three major producing areas, increased by 365,438+0.8% over the previous year, and maintained a high growth trend for several consecutive years. In addition, Tarim gas field also showed a good growth trend, but the growth rate slowed down in 2009, only 4.1%; The output of the third-ranked Southwest gas field has remained basically stable in recent years, with a slight increase in 2009 (1.3%). The output of other producing areas is relatively small, and some gas fields (enterprises) show a trend of decreasing production year by year. According to the trend of national production, the growth rate of natural gas production in China has slowed down year by year in recent years, from 2 1.9% in 2005 to 7.7 1% in 2009.

Third, the domestic and international consumption situation

(a) World natural gas consumption

In 2009, the world's natural gas consumption reached 2,940.4 billion cubic meters, down 2.3% year-on-year. From 200/kloc-0 to the early stage of 2008, the world's natural gas consumption kept increasing, with an average increase of 2.78%. The country with the largest consumption is still the United States, which consumed 646.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2009, slightly lower than the previous year. As a big producer of natural gas, Russia's domestic consumption is also 389.7 billion cubic meters, ranking second in the world. The third country is Iran, whose consumption in 2009 was 1, 310.70 billion cubic meters, with a large increase of 10.4% (Table 5).

Table 5 World natural gas consumption in recent years

sequential

Source: BP World Energy Statistics Review, 20 10.

Regionally, Europe, Asia and North America are the two largest natural gas consumption regions in the world, accounting for 35.9% and 27.8% of the total global consumption in 2009 respectively. However, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, it decreased to different degrees compared with the previous year (6.8% and 1.2% respectively). However, the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East region still maintained their growth momentum, increasing by 3.4% and 4.4% respectively over the previous year.

(B) China natural gas consumption.

In 2009, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China was 87.4 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.3%. In addition, the domestic economy continues to maintain a steady pace, and the demand for energy consumption will continue to rise. As an important part of energy development, the consumption of natural gas will further increase. During the Ninth Five-Year Plan period, natural gas consumption increased by1010.70 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 9.57%. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, consumption has increased to 24.64 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 12438+0%. Statistics show that in 2008, China's natural gas consumption was mainly concentrated in the industrial field, accounting for 65.4% of the total consumption. This huge consumption is mainly generated by its manufacturing industry, reaching 33.792 billion cubic meters. Followed by the extractive industry, reaching 65.438+0.0967 billion cubic meters, but from the development trend, the proportion of extractive industry in consumption has been decreasing. In addition to the industrial sector, domestic consumption also reached 1, 706,543.8+0.2 billion cubic meters, with a large year-on-year increase (27.54%) (Table 6). From the analysis of the proportion of natural gas consumption, it is concluded that the proportion of consumption in the construction industry is decreasing, while that in other fields is increasing. Judging from the structure of consumption areas, China's natural gas consumption is mainly in production areas, mainly concentrated in southwest, northeast and northwest regions, namely Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Xinjiang, accounting for more than 80% of the national consumption. At present, with the development of pipeline construction, many large and medium-sized cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Chengdu, Shenyang, Zhengzhou and An have used pipeline natural gas.

Table 6 Structural unit of natural gas consumption in China from 2003 to 2008: 100 million cubic meters.

Source: China Statistical Yearbook, 2003-2008.

Per capita consumption has increased steadily, but it is still very small. In 2008, the per capita consumption was 12.8 cubic meters (China Statistical Yearbook), an increase of 17.43% over the previous year. At the same time, China's total natural gas consumption accounts for a small share in the world, which is extremely disproportionate to China's huge population. In 2009, China's natural gas consumption accounted for 3.0% of the world's total natural gas consumption (BP data), and there is still room for further growth.

Four. Domestic and international trade situation

(A) the international natural gas trade situation

In 2009, the global natural gas trade reached a record high, with a total trade volume of 876.54 billion cubic meters. The trade volume of pipeline natural gas and LNG (liquefied natural gas) is 633.77 billion cubic meters and 242.77 billion cubic meters respectively. The trade volume of LNG reached a record high, among which Asia has the greatest growth potential, with the trade volume reaching 654.38+052.27 billion cubic meters. Pipeline natural gas trade is still dominated by Europe. In 2009, its trade volume was 444.38 billion cubic meters, accounting for 70. 1% of the total pipeline natural gas trade.

In 2009, affected by the global economic downturn, the trade volume of Japan, South Korea and Spain, the top three LNG importers in the world, all decreased by about 6.0%, but their total imports still exceeded 60% of the total global imports. After the trough in 2008 in the United States, LNG imports began to pick up. The countries with good growth momentum are India, China and Britain. As emerging economies, China and India have become increasingly dependent on external energy in recent years, and there will be growth momentum in the future. As a big economy in western Europe, Britain has insufficient domestic energy supply and long-term pressure on energy imports. Developing LNG imports may be an important choice (Table 7).

Table 7 Major countries and regions importing/entering LNG in the world from 2004 to 2009

Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review, 2005 ~ 20 10.

In terms of pipeline natural gas import, the United States, Germany and Italy imported the most in 2009, reaching 93.03 billion cubic meters, 88.82 billion cubic meters and 66.465438 billion cubic meters respectively, accounting for 39% of the global pipeline natural gas import. In addition, the imports of France, Russia and Britain all exceeded 30 billion cubic meters. The countries with the largest annual increase are Canada and the United Arab Emirates, reaching 24.8% and 12.0% respectively. In 2009, pipeline natural gas imports dropped sharply in the United States, Italy, Britain, Turkey and Belgium, all of which dropped by more than 10%, with Belgium dropping by as much as 17.8% (Table 8).

Table 8 Major importers of pipeline natural gas in the world from 2004 to 2009

Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review, 2005 ~ 20 10.

In terms of pipeline natural gas export, Russia is still the largest exporter, reaching 65.438+07.648 billion cubic meters in 2009, an increase of 654.38+04.3% over the previous year, accounting for 27.8% of the total pipeline natural gas export. Followed by Norway and Canada, the export volume of pipeline natural gas is 95.72 billion cubic meters and 92.24 billion cubic meters respectively. In recent years, Canada's export volume has been around 654.38+00 billion cubic meters, and in 2009 it decreased by 654.38+00.6% compared with the previous year. However, Norwegian exports have been increasing. In addition, in 2009, the export volume of pipeline natural gas in the Netherlands, Algeria and the United States was 49.67 billion cubic meters, 365.438+77 billion cubic meters and 29.46 billion cubic meters respectively, ranking fifth, sixth and seventh in the world respectively. Turkmenistan is implementing the diversification strategy of natural gas export, and the export momentum is developing well. In 2009, the export volume of pipeline natural gas reached 654.38+06.73 billion cubic meters, with a large increase (Table 9).

In terms of LNG export, the global export volume in 2009 was 242.77 billion cubic meters. Like the export trend of pipeline natural gas, the global export volume of liquefied natural gas has been increasing, with an annual growth rate of 7.2%. Among the world LNG exports in 2009, Qatar exported the largest amount, reaching 49.44 billion cubic meters, the largest increase, reaching 24.6%. Followed by Malaysia and Indonesia, the export volume of LNG reached 29.53 billion cubic meters and 26 billion cubic meters respectively, ranking second and third respectively. However, from the perspective of export development trend, there is little room for future growth of the two countries, and Indonesia basically shows a downward trend year by year. In addition, affected by the global financial crisis, some LNG exporting countries were greatly affected, especially Nigeria, with a decrease of 22.2% (table 10).

Table 9 Major Exporters of Pipeline Natural Gas in the World from 2004 to 2009

Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review, 2005 ~ 20 10.

Table 10 Major LNG Exporters in the World in Recent Years

Source: BP World Energy Statistical Review, 2005 ~ 20 10.

(2) Domestic natural gas import and export trade status

In 2009, the import volume of LPG and other hydrocarbon gases (hereinafter referred to as LPG) reached 9.69 million tons, an increase of 63.0% over 2008. The import value was about 3.4 billion US dollars, an increase of16.4% over the previous year; Excluding the export of 3 1.7 million tons, the net import of liquefied petroleum gas in China in 2009 was 6.52 million tons. China's liquefied petroleum gas mainly depends on imports. In recent ten years, only 65,438+0,997 showed negative net import value, which was mainly affected by the economic bubble of 65,438+0,996. In the following years, the net import volume maintained the overall growth momentum (Table 65,438+0,654,38+0). In recent years, the import of LNG in China has also made new progress. In 2006, the first batch of LNG imported from China entered lng terminal. In 2007, Guangdong LNG project was officially put into commercial operation. In that year, China imported 29 1 10,000 tons of LNG, more than three times that of 2006. Among them, 2.48 million tons were supplied by Australia's Northwest Continental Shelf Project under long-term contracts, accounting for about 85% of the total imports, with an average price of 20 16 USD/ton. In 2009, the import of LNG in China reached 5.53 million tons, up 65.8% year-on-year, and the import value was 654.38+28.7 million USD, up 38.2% year-on-year.

It is predicted that by 2020, 49% of China's natural gas supply will come from imports, of which 39% will come from liquefied natural gas imports and 10% will come from Russian and Central Asian countries' pipeline natural gas imports.

In terms of export, in 2009, China's natural gas export was 2.325 million tons, down 1. 1% compared with the previous year, and the export value was nearly 500 million US dollars, up 4.3% year-on-year.

Table11Import and Export of LPG in China from 2006 to 2009

Source: China Customs Statistical Yearbook. From 2006 to 2009, in terms of importing countries, the main sources of China's LPG imports in 2009 were Australia, Iran, Qatar, Malaysia and United Arab Emirates, and the imports from the above five countries accounted for 77.5% of the total imports (Table12); Australia is the main source of liquefied petroleum gas resources imported by China, with an import volume of 3.85 million tons, accounting for 39.7% of the total import volume, an increase of 36.0% over the previous year; Qatar is the country with the largest increase in the import of liquefied petroleum gas in China, with an increase of 323% in 2009 compared with the previous year. Russia has achieved a zero breakthrough and has great potential for future growth; On the other hand, Kuwait shows a downward trend year by year. In 2009, it imported 260,000 tons from Kuwait, a decrease of 49.0% over the previous year.

From the perspective of import areas, except Australia, the largest import source, other important import sources are mainly concentrated in the Middle East and Algeria in Africa, and Indonesia is the main import target in Asia. From the perspective of foreign dependence on imports, Australia's proportion is too heavy, and it is necessary to further expand imports from other regions to reduce the concentration of foreign imports and reduce the risk of resource supply. According to the current distribution of import areas, China should strengthen its political diplomacy with these areas, expand its cooperation with Middle East and Central Asian countries in oil and gas resources, and combine the construction and development of domestic LNG receiving stations to gradually disperse import areas to reduce risks.

Table12 Main Sources of LPG Imports in China from 2006 to 2009

Source: China Customs Statistical Yearbook, 2006-2009.

Five, natural gas price trend analysis

From 1990 to 2009, the world LNG price generally showed an upward trend (Figure 5). In 2008, the international natural gas price reached the highest level in history. Then, affected by the financial crisis, the global natural gas trade was hit, and the price fell back to a rational level. Take Japan's LNG CIF price as an example, which was $9.06/million British thermal units in 2009. With the global economic recovery in 20 10, the import price of LNG will continue to rise in the future.

Figure 5 1984 to 2009 CIF price of LNG in Japan

In 2009, the price of pipeline natural gas also dropped sharply. According to the statistics of the world's four major natural gas trading centers, the transaction prices have declined to varying degrees, among which Alberta in Canada and Henry Center in the United States have the largest price declines, basically returning to the level of 2003. In contrast, the decline of CIF price in the EU is slightly smaller, mainly because the EU region is a big importer of natural gas, with a large gap, which can support the price fundamentals to some extent (Figure 6).

Figure 6 1984-2009 World Natural Gas Price

The current pricing policy of natural gas industry in China is based on cost additive process. With the continuous development of natural gas industry, the pricing policy of natural gas has been adjusted several times according to the shortage of natural gas resources and the change of market structure, which basically shows the basic characteristics of market pricing under government supervision. From the perspective of considering the cost level of natural gas production enterprises and the affordability of market users, the current pricing policy of natural gas industry in China is summarized as follows: pricing method based on cost-plus process, proper consideration of market demand, ex-factory price as government pricing, natural gas pipeline price as government guidance price, and old line and old price as adopted. In order to change the existing price system, the government has begun to reform the natural gas pricing, and the direction of the reform is to be in line with international standards.

Conclusion of intransitive verbs

(a) World natural gas supply and demand trends

Since 1990s, the world natural gas supply has basically maintained a relatively stable growth trend. The expansion of global energy demand and the increase of proven reserves of natural gas resources have brought new opportunities for the development of natural gas supply market. Since 1990, the world's natural gas supply is only1991800 million cubic meters. By 2008, the supply reached 3,060.7 billion cubic meters, an increase of 53.7%. Although it was affected by the financial crisis in 2009, it still shows an increasing trend in the future. At the same time, under the current situation of tight oil and energy supply, the exploration and development of natural gas is constantly increasing, which further urges natural gas to play an important energy role in the 2 1 century and makes its supply continue to grow.

On the demand side, with the continuous expansion of global energy demand, the demand for natural gas has steadily increased due to its advantages of clean and environmental protection, occupying an important position in the energy consumption structure. 1990, the world demand for natural gas was only1981700 million cubic meters, and by 2009 it had reached 2,940.3 billion cubic meters.

In the balance of supply and demand, natural gas has always been relatively balanced. For example, in 2009, the global natural gas surplus was 46.6 billion cubic meters. It is predicted that the supply and demand of natural gas will be balanced in the next few years.

(B) China natural gas supply and demand trends

In recent years, China's natural gas supply capacity has been strengthened, and natural gas production and imports have been increasing. From 200 1 to 2009, the average annual growth rate of supply reached 13.34%, with a good growth momentum. On the demand side, China's natural gas has maintained a growth trend in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 15.24% in 2006 and 88 billion cubic meters in 2009.

Judging from the import and export situation in the past 10 years, the net import scale of natural gas in China has been expanding, and the import methods have been expanding, especially the import of liquefied natural gas has developed rapidly. In 2006, the import of LNG entered a new era, and the cooperation with overseas countries entered a new stage. In 2009, China imported 5.53 million tons of LNG, a year-on-year increase of 65.8%. Pipeline natural gas imports have also made breakthroughs. In June 5438+February 65438+April 2009, the first transnational natural gas pipeline in China, the Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline, was put into operation, and the annual natural gas imported from Turkmenistan and other countries will reach 30 billion cubic meters.

The field of natural gas consumption continues to expand. By the end of 2009, the length of natural gas pipelines built in China reached 38,000 kilometers, initially forming a national-level backbone natural gas pipeline network with pipelines such as West-East Gas Transmission, Sichuan-East Gas Transmission, West-East Gas Transmission (Western Section), Shaanxi-Beijing Line and Zhongwu Line as backbones, and Lanyin Line, Wuhuai Line and Jining Line as connecting lines. At the same time, Jiangsu LNG and Dalian LNG projects are progressing smoothly, Zhejiang LNG project has been approved by the state, and imported LNG resources have been continuously implemented, forming a new pattern of natural gas resources supply. The natural gas consumption market has expanded to 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) and more than 200 cities above the prefecture level.

Judging from the future energy consumption structure and development trend, China's natural gas is under great pressure to rely on domestic production and supply, and it needs to be imported and exploited overseas to ensure the supply balance and market stability of China's natural gas. In recent years, China has made new breakthroughs in terms of import sources and methods. In terms of pipeline import, new agreements and cooperation have been reached with Russia and Central Asia. In terms of LNG import, the construction of receiving stations in coastal areas is rapid and the development momentum is good. It is believed that it can promote the overall rationalization of the future energy supply pattern, on the one hand, broaden the resource supply mode of coastal cities, on the other hand, ease the supply pressure of long-distance pipelines.

(Yu Lianghui)