Will artificial intelligence replace human beings?

At present, AI has surpassed human beings in many scenes and tasks? Don't eat, drink or sleep, just need a little energy and maintenance costs. In the future, AI will gradually replace human employees in some fields, which has now become a * * * knowledge.

With the participation of AI, what will the future work become? Which human employees can be replaced by AI? What jobs are beyond AI's power?

Or, do humans need to reconstruct their cognition of employment and formulate a brand-new social contract for this purpose?

In addition, in the AI era, if we don't spend most of our time at work, will our lifestyle undergo subversive changes?

In order to answer these questions, next, I will begin to analyze how AI replaces human employees and explore the possibilities of human employment in the AI era.

How will 1.AI replace human employees?

First of all, it is obvious that AI has amazing advantages in dealing with massive data.

Take financial lending as an example. In the process of lending audit, after a financial institution receives a loan application, the manual auditor will generally carefully check all kinds of information of the applicant, such as net assets, work income, family status and so on. And then decide whether to approve the loan application. This is a complicated process.

But AI doesn't have to do this. It can directly input thousands of variables into the "risk control model" according to the public records of loan applicants, facial information, data in downloaded applications and various browsing history tracks on the Internet, and then quickly give detailed evaluation results.

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This process is not only efficient, but also its evaluation results are more accurate than those of experienced human auditors.

As can be seen from the above example, it may not be too difficult for AI to replace some white-collar workers in daily work, and similar things have indeed happened. For example, human employees who used to do specialized transactional work such as bookkeeping and data entry are now replaced by computer software.

Then, in the future AI era, to what extent will human employees be replaced by AI? Which industries are most vulnerable to AI impact?

In the book AI Future, I predict that by 2033, 40% of human employees in jobs will be replaced by AI and automation technology.

Of course, this replacement process cannot be completed overnight. The way that AI replaces human employees is gradual, and it is gradually replaced by robot process automation (RPA) technology.

Simply put, RPA can be regarded as a "software robot" installed on a computer, which can observe all the work done by human employees through software. As time goes by, this kind of "software robot" will master the whole process of human employees' repeating daily work according to the workflow of millions of human employees observed by itself.

At some point, enterprises will choose to let robots completely take over the work of human employees, which is a "cost-effective" move? As the overall workload decreases, the number of employees on the enterprise payroll will decrease.

Imagine that in the human resources department of a 100 employee, the main job of 20 employees is to screen resumes? Compare the job seeker's information with the job criteria in the job description.

If the screening efficiency of RPA doubles after it goes online, 10 employees will lose their jobs. After RPA completes further study based on more data and experience, it may replace the remaining 10 employees at some point.

At the same time, RPA has great potential in e-mail communication with job seekers, arranging interviews, feedback and coordination, employment decision, and even basic employment negotiation. If these tasks are also entrusted to RPA, more human employees will be replaced.

It is not difficult to imagine that AI's intervention in human work is gradual, but the final result is clear? AI will completely replace human employees.

Some optimists believe that the productivity increase brought by emerging technologies can always bring corresponding economic benefits, while economic growth and prosperity mean more employment opportunities.

However, unlike other emerging technologies, AI is an all-round technology, which will directly impact hundreds of industries and millions of jobs. This influence includes not only the substitution of manual labor, but also the cognitive challenge.

Most technologies will create some new jobs while replacing some human employees. For example, the assembly line has completely changed the automobile industry? From craftsmen who assemble expensive cars by hand to ordinary workers who make cheaper cars.

However, AI is different. Its goal is clear, that is, to take over human tasks, which will directly lead to the reduction of human employment opportunities. Moreover, AI will not be limited to a single technical field, it will "invade" all walks of life.

Second, what jobs do people do that are not easily replaced by AI?

In order to calmly cope with the employment situation in the AI era, we must first understand the characteristics of AI, such as what kind of work AI does not have and what kind of work it cannot accomplish.

Then, we can seize the time to supplement the positions that AI can't take over in advance, provide people with corresponding vocational guidance and carry out targeted vocational training, so as to achieve a balance between job supply and demand in the AI ? ? era.

I think AI has obvious shortcomings in the following three aspects. Even in 2042, AI may still not be able to fully master these capabilities.

First, creativity.

AI does not have the ability to create, conceive and plan strategically.

Although AI is very good at optimizing tasks in a single field and making the objective function reach the optimal value, it cannot choose its own goals, cross-disciplinary ideas, creative thinking and self-evident common sense for human beings.

Second, empathy.

AI has no feelings of "empathy" such as "sympathy" and "care", and can't really interact with human beings emotionally, nor can it bring care to others.

Although researchers have been committed to improving the defects of AI in this respect, it is still difficult for human beings to get the sincere care they expect from a robot and get spiritual comfort when they need emotional interaction. This is the so-called lack of "humanization".

Third, flexibility.

AI and robots can't accomplish some precise and complicated physical tasks, such as dexterous hand-eye coordination. In addition, it is difficult for AI to cope with unknown or unstructured space and perform tasks in it, especially in the space that it cannot observe.

So, what impact will these shortcomings and defects of AI mentioned above have on the future employment situation of mankind?

It is not difficult to predict that some repetitive tasks that do not require social interaction may all be taken over by AI, such as telemarketing, insurance auditing and loan auditing mentioned above.

Those tasks that require high social skills and are relatively repetitive will be carried out by human beings and AI***, and both of them will give full play to their respective advantages in their work and realize man-machine cooperation.

For example, in the classroom, AI can be responsible for correcting daily homework, correcting exams, and even completing some standardized course teaching and personalized practical guidance; Human teachers can focus on becoming considerate teachers, use their own empathy to understand and motivate students, accompany them to study in practice, provide them with personalized counseling and enlightenment, and help them cultivate good habits and emotional intelligence.

For those jobs that need creativity but don't need socialization, AI will become a weapon to help human beings exert greater creativity and potential. For example, scientists can use artificial intelligence technology to improve the speed and accuracy of drug research and development.

There are also some jobs that require both creativity and social skills. They will become the "bright spot" of the future human workplace, and it is difficult to be replaced by AI.