Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. does not need to be the first in the world, and China does not need an offensive giant.

Produced by: Quantum Technology Group

Tu Tu Author: Zhou Kang

According to the data of Forbes Real-time Rich List, Zeng Yuqun, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., has a net worth of US$ 34.5 billion, not only surpassing Lee Shau Kee's US$ 32,654.38 billion, but also surpassing Li Ka-shing's US$ 34.4 billion, making him the richest man in Hong Kong.

Some people say that the essence of the change of ownership of the richest man in Hong Kong is that science and technology capital officially surpasses real estate capital in status, so can it be said that the best time has finally arrived?

This paper is devoted to solving the following two problems:

1. How does Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. become an era?

2. The hidden worry of its times development.

3. My opinion on the future development of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd..

Wang Xing once shared such a message at the dinner:

Both Wang Xing and Zeng Yuqun are from Fujian, and they both have a trait of daring to take risks and struggle. They like gambling. Gambling here doesn't mean gambling or taking risks, but knowing that everything is likely to fail, especially in some areas that few people try, but you still have to bet that you can win.

Yes, you can bet that you can win and you can do it. "Strong gambling" is not a simple idea of "all in", nor is it what gamblers believe in "taking a chance and turning bicycles into motorcycles". "Gambling" represents strategy and courage, while "being strong" represents patience and firmness.

Lei Jun said that pigs can fly on the tuyere, and the logic behind this is the same. In fact, everyone is saying that life can't just love fighting. If you just work hard, it is not enough. Success always requires some luck.

The performance of luck can be to bet that you stand on the cusp and bet that you stand on the right cusp.

China is the largest new energy vehicle market in the world. Relying on policy subsidies and China's huge automobile market, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. enjoys many "window benefits".

Zeng Yuqun once said: "The Japanese invented the lithium battery, the Koreans made it bigger, and China made it the first in the world."

Previously, because the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries could not meet the subsidy standard, Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., which is mainly based on ternary lithium batteries, became the biggest winner. The subsidy policy can be said to be a tuyere or even a typhoon. What happened after the typhoon left?

As a result of this gamble, Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., which was dominated by ternary lithium batteries at that time, temporarily became the winner, while Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., which stood on the cusp, did not relax.

Zeng Yuquan once sent an employee a letter entitled "The typhoon is coming, can pigs really fly?" "E-mail is mainly to remind those complacent employees, hoping that they will be alert to the cruel market environment after the liberalization of policy barriers.

"Can pigs really fly? What happened to the pigs when the typhoon left? "

This is not Zeng Yuqun's first gamble. After graduating from college, Zeng Yuquan was assigned to work in a state-owned enterprise. In the past three months, he gave up this "iron rice bowl" and joined Dongguan Shinco Electronics Factory as an engineer. He began to gamble on a different life.

Ten years later, Zeng Yuqun became the technical director of the company. Some companies pay a high salary to dig corners, and their superiors want him to stay and March together to develop lithium batteries. This time, he began to gamble on a different direction of life.

In that golden age full of opportunities, few people dared to gamble like this. Most people will choose a more stable life, and Zeng Yuquan, who gambled on his own fate, founded contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., which is now famous all over the world. This high-profile star company has also kept him in the spotlight, and has created nine billionaires so far, comparable to the records of Amazon and Google.

On the choice of battery, Zeng Yuqun made two key decisions. One is that when most mobile phone manufacturers choose hard-packed batteries, ATL decided to find another way to make soft-packed batteries, which will be mentioned at the end of the article; The other is that Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., a latecomer in the field of automobile batteries, did not choose the same lithium iron phosphate battery as BYD, but chose ternary lithium batteries, which was even less optimistic.

These two bold and crucial decisions seem to be "gambling", but they are all based on Zeng Yuqun's sober judgment of the current situation.

So how did Zeng Yuqun's next step "gamble"?

The first is to open up new tracks-around the upstream and downstream to open up new tracks.

First, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will spend 654.38+0.9 billion yuan to invest in high-quality listed companies in the new energy automobile industry chain. According to incomplete statistics, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has more than 45 wholly-owned subsidiaries that have invested or established joint ventures abroad.

Secondly, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will join hands with its old club ATL to set up two joint ventures-one to manufacture batteries and the other to manufacture battery packs for the domestic energy storage and electric two-wheeled vehicle market.

Let's see how Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. opened up a new track upstream. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and Luoyang Molybdenum Industry launched comprehensive strategic cooperation in the field of new energy metals. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. invested in the Kisanfu project of Luoyang Molybdenum Industry in the Democratic Republic of Congo through its holding company, and jointly invested with Luoyang Molybdenum Industry to develop this world-class copper-cobalt mine.

In addition to opening up new upstream and downstream tracks around the battery field, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has also begun to test the field of automatic driving. It participated in the financing of C2 Round Horizon, a self-driving chip manufacturer, and also participated in the investment in Aichi Automobile, and cooperated with it to develop new battery technology.

Looking at these layouts as a whole, we can see that contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Ltd. wants to build its own energy Internet, which involves not only the replacement of fossil energy, but also the construction of innovation.

The grand layout may also confirm Zeng Yuqun's ambition to be the world's number one, but there are always hidden concerns behind the attack.

First of all, the most intuitive worry of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is the gross profit margin.

Although the sales volume and revenue are rising steadily, the gross profit margin is falling instead of rising. This situation is embarrassing. In a quarterly report, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. explained this phenomenon with "intensified market competition, industrial policy adjustment and changes in raw material prices".

In fact, this is also one of the bottlenecks facing the automobile industry today. The cost of power batteries can't continue to decline with the decline in the price of new energy vehicles, which also means that the profit rate of power batteries may not be able to make a higher breakthrough in a short time.

That is to say, since the price of battery is so low, other manufacturers will have the opportunity to approach this cost through technological upgrading, while Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. cannot make higher profits in this respect, so the possibility of increasing revenue by reducing the cost of power battery in a short time is basically zero.

Secondly, although the current domestic power battery field is showing a situation of "one super and many strong" around contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., it does not mean that this situation will not be broken.

Although Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. currently ranks first in the world with 24.82% installed capacity, its status as a king is not from beginning to end.

Affected by the epidemic last year, contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited once fell behind its old rival LG Chem in the first half of the year-from March to August last year, the monthly installed capacity of LG Chem surpassed that of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited.

To sum up, these two key issues are that the barriers that look like moats are not reliable, and all the advantages accumulated by Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. in the past may be broken one by one in the future. On the track of rapid development of power batteries, no one can always be the winner. You used to be the king, but you may be pulled off the throne at any time.

In the early days, many car companies cooperated with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. because they didn't have very high-quality battery technology. Facing the cruel market competition, everyone has to buy batteries from Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.

But how can the situation never change? Although we maintain cooperation with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. on the one hand, considering the long-term development in the future, most car companies are planning to build their own battery factories or independently develop battery technology.

For example, Great Wall Motor is developing "hydrogen lime technology", and Geely Automobile has also invested 30 billion yuan in battery research and development.

The author especially believes in one sentence-neither time nor the world has the obligation to wait for anyone.

The rapid development of power battery industry will not give contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. any chance to relax. Even if contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. has been standing at the forefront, it will not necessarily become a "pig" after the typhoon.

Fear of attack is everywhere. Can Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. "gamble" on the track forever?

It must be admitted that Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. is a unicorn in the field of power batteries today, and this out-and-out giant dominates this track, which can be described as infinite scenery.

However, countless histories have also warned investors that when unicorns gradually establish their own thrones, there will be a lot of quick cash-out moves, and some people will choose to continue fighting with enterprises to the next stage. Is the enterprise itself confident enough for its own development?

On the way to attack Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., many major shareholders sold their shares to cash out. How to interpret and understand this?

Let's go back to the topic of "world first". The value of an enterprise comes from its contribution to society. If it makes a contribution, it has the value of its existence. So can it be said that contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. does not have to be the first in the world?

It is very necessary for contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to become the first in the world.

Looking back on the above, we know that there is no eternal king in the field of power batteries. This is a track where you don't advance or retreat. If you don't always strive to surpass the first, you may always be abandoned by the times.

In the past, China faced various difficulties in the chip industry, and now it finally has a chance to break through the dilemma stuck in one field-power batteries. China needs such opportunities, and China also needs such enterprises.

But do you need to do it right away? It is necessary for Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to become the first in the world, but it is unnecessary for Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. to be the first in the world, because China does not need an offensive giant.

Have we heard the story of the collapse of tall buildings? How many kings have faded out of history in the past? For example, Nokia, I won't go into details. See, naturally understand what I mean.

Above, we still have a question to talk about, that is, Zeng Yuquan's early key decision on the selection of mobile phone batteries.

At that time, Japanese battery companies were producing square or round hard-packed batteries. Hard-packed batteries are easy to produce, but the disadvantages are obvious-they are easy to explode.

At that time, ATL chose a different track from most people-flexible battery, that is, polymer flexible battery.

Unlike hard-packed batteries, soft-packed batteries are flexible to manufacture and will not explode, and the worst case is bulging.

Interestingly, this decision was not very eye-catching at that time, but after more than ten years, everyone applauded this decision.

Samsung's own SDI battery was the main cause of Samsung's battery explosion, but Samsung's mobile phone using ATL battery did not explode.

We all know the later story. ATL began to occupy the market quickly and even won the favor of Apple.

Completely different choices have led to different fates after more than ten years. I put this story at the end of the article, and I believe readers who read through the article can understand what I mean.

Yes, in the pool of power batteries, no one can relax easily, and must always be competitive.

However, the story of this track can't be finished in five years or ten years. Do you want to be a strong man for a while or a lean man for a lifetime?

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., don't worry, the story needs to be told slowly.