The ultimate forecast of Tesla battery day! Who can land four technological "nuclear bombs"?

Text || Fruit juice

In two weeks, on September 22nd, US time, Musk said that the most important battery day in Tesla's history will be held in the California factory, which is the first time Tesla has held a press conference specifically for battery technology.

Why is Tesla's activity so concerned by the industry? Tesla's pre-heated battery technology "nuclear bomb" is likely to be thrown out at this event, including four heavy technology "nuclear bombs" such as million-kilometer battery, cobalt-free battery, dry electrode technology and silicon nanowire technology.

What is the cylindrical electricity used by Tesla at present?

Tesla's conference will cause a huge earthquake in the industry. This conference involves the power battery, the most important component in the field of electric vehicles, which naturally makes countless people full of expectations.

So what will Tesla release this battery day event? What impact will it have on the power battery industry? Will there be any heavy information released on Tesla Battery Day?

Although there are not many clues revealed by Tesla this time, according to the car's continuous attention and tracking of battery technology and industrial chain, it can be inferred that the content to be released by Tesla Battery Day will basically be locked in the following aspects.

First, holding a number of new technologies? Will subvert the battery industry?

After the close layout in the last two years, Tesla has accumulated many new technologies in power batteries, and these technologies may all appear on this battery day.

1, dry electrode technology: the energy density of a single battery can reach 500Wh/kg.

After 20 16, Musk turned and plunged into Tesla mode? 3 production hell, Tesla does not have much action in power batteries.

20 19 February, in the conference call released by Tesla's 20 18 financial report, Musk pointed out that the battery capacity of the super factory was insufficient to limit the Tesla model. 3 the biggest shackles of productivity. The limitation of Panasonic's power battery capacity has prompted Tesla to accelerate its layout in the field of power batteries.

In 20 15, Tesla acquired Maxwell, a battery technology company, at a price of 2180,000 USD (about RMB15.27 million yuan), which also shows that this company is unusual.

Maxwell does not make wet electrode technology like traditional battery companies, but develops dry electrode technology and supercapacitor technology. In the dry electrode production process, the anode and cathode materials do not need to be added into the solvent to coat the electrode sheet material, but the active anode and cathode materials are directly mixed into the viscous substance, so that the anode and cathode materials themselves are fibrillated to form a self-supporting film, which is firmly attached to the electrode sheet.

Introduction of Maxwell dry electrode technology

This process can produce thicker electrodes and greatly improve the energy density of the battery. The highest energy density of ternary lithium battery cells made by this process can reach 500Wh/kg, while the energy density of mainstream ternary lithium battery cells is about 300Wh/kg at present.

Another advantage of the dry electrode is that it can make up for the capacity attenuation of the battery by constantly supplementing lithium metal after the battery is used. However, the electrodes prepared by wet electrode method can not be well combined with each other by adding lithium metal and mixed carbon of lithium metal, which is usually accompanied by strong reactions such as smoke, flame and noise.

In addition, Maxwell is still developing supercapacitor technology, which can be used as a fast energy storage device in the process of energy recovery, and its energy consumption is far less than that of restoring the recovered kinetic energy to the battery. In the process of rapid acceleration, supercapacitors can realize high-power discharge, which avoids lithium dendrites generated by direct high-power discharge of power batteries and irreversible damage to the battery structure.

Maxwell is applying for a patent.

Another great advantage of supercapacitor technology is its wide operating temperature range. Most batteries need to maintain the working temperature between 20℃ and 40℃, and the requirements for the external environment temperature are harsh. The working temperature of supercapacitors is between -40℃ and 80℃, which can be used to start vehicles and heat power batteries in winter.

Although Maxwell is not well-known in battery companies, these two technologies provide more possibilities for power batteries. It is for these two technologies that Tesla is willing to spend a lot of money to win this company.

2. Silicon nanowire technology: the mass and volume of the battery will be reduced by half.

Tesla did not launch this technology before, and the speculation about this technology was also after Tesla released the latest poster of Battery Day at the end of last month.

The poster of Tesla Battery Day is based on black. In addition to introducing the basic information of battery day, there are some abstract lines on the poster, which has also attracted a lot of media attention.

Tesla battery day poster

After careful study, overseas media believe that this is a structural diagram of a new battery material-silicon nanowire, so some overseas media also believe that Tesla will release a brand-new battery based on silicon nanowire technology on Battery Day, instead of the previously rumored dry electrode technology.

Foreign media reported that after adopting silicon nanowire technology, the weight of battery cells will be reduced by half, and the space occupied will be half of that of current lithium-ion batteries. In other words, the energy density of batteries with the same battery volume and mass will be greatly improved, which paves the way for higher energy density power batteries.

Silicon nanowire technology has higher energy density.

In addition, overseas media also found that the structural diagram of this silicon nanowire is directed at Amprius, a leading battery manufacturing company. After searching on Google Maps, foreign media were surprised to find that the company's location has moved to the vicinity of Tesla fremont battery factory. Tesla's battery day will be held in this factory.

Later, a blogger tweeted that Amprius silicon nanowire battery has an advantage in energy density. Musk directly responded under this tweet that the battery with 400Wh/kg, high cycle life and mass production is not far away, and it may be realized within 3 to 4 years.

This response is also reminiscent. When Tesla expanded its battery factory in fremont, Amprius had just moved aside, and Tesla's posters were vague about the company.

Although Musk later said under the tweet of foreign media cleantechnica that Tesla had nothing to do with Amprius, this response was not firm enough (the use of emoticons made this answer informal, and of course the possibility of over-interpretation by the author was not ruled out). As for whether the two companies are related, we need to wait until the battery day to announce it in person.

Musk Twitter screenshot

Second, the new battery or appearance? Longer service life and lower cost.

Although Tesla has been exploring new battery technologies, there is still a certain gap between the above two battery technologies and formal mass production. Tesla's battery day activity is not necessarily just this front-end technology. The battery technology that can really facilitate electric vehicles may be the highlight of Tesla. In this regard, Tesla also has a layout.

1, million kilometers battery: the service life of electric vehicles will increase.

The service life of batteries has always been a headache for car companies and battery manufacturers, which has also led to the rapid depreciation of electric vehicles. For car companies and users, a long-life power battery is very important.

As a leader in the industry, Tesla will naturally have no layout in this respect. In 20 15, musk found Jeff Dane's team focusing on the industrialization of lithium battery technology, hoping to provide him with "considerable research funds for five years" (the? Substantive? Five years? Funding? Package), let it develop a lithium-ion battery with longer life, lower cost and higher energy density for Tesla.

Jeff Dane

Jeff Dane successfully commercialized ternary composite cathode materials by precisely limiting the content of nickel in nickel-cobalt-manganese materials, and is recognized as the real pioneer and inventor of ternary material technology in the industry.

At the end of September last year, Jeff Dane's team published a paper introducing the new generation lithium-ion battery they are testing, which uses the next generation single crystal cathode and new electrolyte.

In the case of using single crystal cathode, the battery capacity will only lose 10% after 4000 cycles, while under the current technical conditions, the battery capacity will lose 1000% after1000 cycles.

In addition, Jeff Dane's team also considered several different electrolytes and used different methods to check the reasons of battery performance degradation and impedance increase. Some tests have even been conducted in secret for more than three years.

Jeff Dane Research Group

Jeff Dane's team believes that the newly developed power battery can drive electric vehicles for more than 654.38+0.6 million kilometers. If it is used for power grid energy storage, it can be used for at least 20 years.

In May this year, Reuters reported that Tesla and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited will jointly develop a battery with a cruising range of over one million miles (about 654.38+0.6 million kilometers). From this perspective, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. may also participate in Tesla's long-life battery project.

2. Cobalt-free battery: It can greatly reduce the battery cost.

At present, Tesla electric vehicles mainly use NCA ternary lithium battery produced by Panasonic, and metal cobalt is needed in the production process.

However, cobalt is a scarce metal with small output and uneven distribution. According to the data of the US Geological Survey, the global terrestrial cobalt resources are about 7 million tons, of which Congo (DRC) accounts for 52%, Australia accounts for 17%, Cuba accounts for 7%, and other countries have very low reserves.

This led to a shortage of cobalt. Yang Hongxin, president of Honeycomb Energy Company, once said: "If recycling is not considered, cobalt will be in short supply after 2026." The scarcity of cobalt has also led to an increase in prices, not to mention a series of problems such as child labor exploitation.

At present, many battery companies are committed to the research and development of cobalt-free batteries. As for Tesla's research in this field, Reuters reported that Tesla is cooperating with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited to develop cobalt-free batteries.

Reuters reports that Tesla is discussing cooperation with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. on cobalt-free batteries.

However, according to the available information, Tesla's cooperation with contemporary Amperex Technology and Limited is more inclined to lithium iron phosphate battery. What is the current domestic version of lithium iron phosphate? 3 has appeared in the new car catalogue of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

However, it is still unknown whether the two companies have discussed other cobalt-free batteries together. The answer to this question may not be revealed until Tesla Battery Day.

Third, the layout of self-produced batteries is perfect? The California factory is hiring.

Judging from the above layout, Tesla has accumulated a lot in the field of battery technology and basically has the ability to produce batteries by itself. However, in addition to technology, the production of batteries must also have sufficient production technology and property insurance. Tesla has also deployed in this regard.

In June 5438+10 last year, some media found that Hibar, a Canadian precision equipment company, suddenly appeared under Tesla and became a holding subsidiary of Tesla.

Hybal is famous for producing high-precision quantitative liquid injection pump, liquid injection production system, automatic battery manufacturing and process equipment, and its product line covers a complete battery production process.

In the past 40 years, Hybal has become the preferred supplier of primary and secondary battery production lines in the battery industry. Very experienced in battery production, which can be of great help to Tesla's self-produced batteries.

Hibar product list

In addition, Tesla is also expanding its battery factory, which is located in Cato Road, fremont, California, close to Tesla's fremont factory, only a few minutes away.

In March of this year, Tesla submitted an application to expand the site, which will increase the workplace by adding floors. After the expansion, it can accommodate up to 45 R&D personnel and 425 front-line manufacturing workers, with a total of 470 employees.

Tesla is expanding its battery factory.

According to foreign media electrek, Tesla is still recruiting production personnel for the battery production line. Tesla's recruitment announcement shows that Tesla's battery manufacturing team is expanding its scale and recruiting production assistants. In addition to these positions, Tesla is still looking for other positions such as engineering managers and engineers.

Based on this information, Tesla's battery production should be one foot short, and this battery day activity may be the last "one foot" of Tesla's battery project.

Fourth, one? More? Things: Models? Y may usher in a big change.

In addition to the layout of the battery, Musk recently said that Tesla will make some important structural changes in automobile production, which will be implemented at the Berlin factory first. The specific content of the change, Musk said that it will be announced at this month's Battery Day event.

In addition, there may be other news announced this battery day.

In a report, Forbes, a foreign media, thought that Tesla might be studying electric aircraft on the grounds that in 20 18, Musk had put forward the concept of electric aircraft when he participated in a podcast. In an interview in February this year, Musk talked about his views on electric aircraft.

At that time, when the media asked Musk if he had any plans to build an electric plane, Musk replied that it was very difficult to put the plane into production and meet the regulations of all countries in the world.

Musk also said that the difficulty in manufacturing electric aircraft is not money, but the need for excellent engineers. Once everything at hand is in an ideal state, he will consider the project of electric plane.

He also said: "except rockets, the power of all vehicles can be changed to electricity."

In addition, Musk once said that as long as the energy density of the power battery reaches 400Wh/kg, the electric plane is feasible, and Musk also mentioned in the process of replying to netizens recently that the power battery of 400Wh/kg will be realized in the near future. This detail is also worth pondering.

Musk Twitter screenshot

Foreign media cnet also believes that Tesla may also disclose that it will participate in the European power industry on this battery day.

Foreign media whichev reported that in May this year, Tesla submitted an application to the British government to become a British energy supplier. Although the British government has not approved it, Tesla has provided a home battery storage system in the UK through Powerwall. We have also registered a solar roof service, and our determination to provide energy supply in the UK is very obvious.

Tesla Powerwall

According to information from Reuters, Tesla has obtained a license to trade electricity in Western Europe, and Tesla has also conducted a survey in Germany, trying to understand the interest of German users in Tesla's energy services, so as to make the next layout.

In fact, Tesla has previously established the world's largest lithium battery storage facility in South Australia, which can store 65,438+000 GWh of electricity and provide 8 hours of power for 30,000 households.

Perhaps the latter two projects will not necessarily appear on Tesla Battery Day, but it is not an exaggeration to speculate on a company like Tesla. No one can guess what Musk wants to do next.

Conclusion: Tesla battery day may cause new technological changes.

The emergence of Tesla has revived the almost eliminated electric vehicles. After nearly 10 years of rapid development, Tesla has become a leader in the field of electric vehicles. Even in the entire automotive industry, Tesla is the car company with the highest market value.

Today, when electrification is irreversible, Tesla's every move will have an impact on the whole industry, and this month's battery day is Tesla's most important activity this year. Musk even called battery day the most important thing in Tesla's history.

This also means that Tesla will release a number of heavy information on this battery day, which may guide the development direction of the electric vehicle industry. When the battery day event is officially held, the car will also participate in the report to fully reveal Tesla's battery layout.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.