* * * Behind the economic collapse: burning 1000 billion, the business model can't compete with street vendors.

From the peak of life to the trough, it took only four years for Dai Wei, founder and CEO of Little Yellow Car (ofo). At the peak, there are so many investment institutions that they can break through the threshold of Xiaohuangche's headquarters. Dai Wei was judged by foreign media as a business elite under the age of 40, and boarded the Hurun Rich List, bearing the aura of the post-90 s rich.

Now, Dai Wei, because whether the company can refund the deposit in full has become a problem, and I am on the verge of bankruptcy, so I am restricted from spending. The roller coaster life experience really surprised the outside world.

Ma, chairman of Tencent's board of directors, made a rare voice in the circle of friends, arguing that ofo's defeat was due to the veto power: Dai Wei, Ali, Didi and Jingwei all had one veto power, and the result was "nothing can pass".

However, the problem of equity design is actually only the reason for the collapse of ofo, and the design of business model that * * * enjoys economic inhumanity is the root of failure. The lack of accurate assessment of human evil makes it difficult for * * * to enjoy the economy and its competitiveness is not as good as that of street vendors. Only by relying on the continuous blood transfusion (financing) of the organization can we continue our life. Once the organization withdraws its capital, Xiao Huangche will immediately go into shock.

Regarding human nature, the British economist Adam Smith explained it very clearly in The Wealth of Nations: "The reason why we can have dinner every day is not because of bakers, butchers or winemakers. They love us and their charities, but because they are selfish, they want to pursue their own interests. "

However, to achieve Smith's ideal result of "selfishness can be altruistic", it is inseparable from credit constraints. Without credit constraints, the selfishness of human nature will erupt into the evil of human nature, profiteers will take power, scum users will run amok, and the market will eventually fall apart.

Before the emergence of bicycles, there were many bicycle rental booths in various cities. You can ride a bike with a deposit. When the bicycle is returned, the seller will check it. If the user damages the bicycle during the lease period, the corresponding deposit will be deducted. If the returned bicycle is intact, the user's deposit will be refunded in full.

In the traditional bicycle rental industry, there are special people (vendors) who impose credit constraints on users.

However, * * * enjoying a bicycle does not form an effective credit constraint for users.

When the user pays the deposit, scans the QR code to ride a bicycle, and there are behaviors such as damage, discarding and personal use, the company simply cannot grasp it. Credit constraint depends entirely on the conscious behavior of users, and the life and death of bicycles depends entirely on the public morality of users.

No matter the small yellow car or the venture capital investment in the small yellow car, the consideration of human nature is completely ignored, so the business model design launched looks promising and the prospect of enjoying the economy is colorful.

According to the published information, the bicycle cost of ofo is 399 yuan -750 yuan/vehicle, and the cost of other bicycles such as mobike is about 1 1,000 yuan. Roughly estimated, the cost of each bicycle is around 800 yuan.

Under normal use, the service life of each bicycle is about 1500 hours, and the average maintenance fee is calculated according to 80 yuan every 200 hours. The maintenance fee for the normal life cycle of each bicycle is 600 yuan.

In this way, in the normal life cycle, the enjoyment cost of a bicycle is about 1400 yuan/vehicle.

* * * The charge for bicycle enjoyment is generally not less than 1 yuan/hour. Based on the service life of 1.500 hours, each bicycle can bring a gross profit of at least 1.000 yuan. Considering that a bicycle platform like ofo is Party A and is in a strong bargaining position with bicycle factories, the purchase cost and maintenance cost (mainly spare parts) of bicycles will drop from 200 yuan to 300 yuan, so the gross profit of each vehicle will rise to 300-400 yuan, and the gross profit margin can reach nearly 30%.

Moreover, * * * enjoys a huge bicycle scale, and ofo only put in100000 vehicles in 20 16. It is estimated that the gross profit should be 3 billion, and * * * enjoys cycling as another user entrance in the era of mobile Internet, and the imagination space in the future is broader.

Inspired by the illusory beauty, coupled with the Internet entrepreneurial routine of harvesting the market first and then harvesting profits, venture capitalists such as Ali, Didi and Xiaomi were completely confused, so ofo obtained 10 financing, with a total financing amount of nearly 10 billion RMB. 20 16, the scene of competing for ofo investment is no less than job hunting, and ordinary venture capitalists simply can't get in.

However, once the evil of human nature breaks out, the enjoyment of riding is shattered like a gorgeous soap bubble.

* * * 2065 438+06, the problem of man-made destruction began to surface. "* * * 100 how to die by riding a bicycle" has been circulated on the internet, and bicycles have become a punching bag for some people, with deliberate damage, discarding and unauthorized occupation emerging one after another.

According to the network survey, the damage rate of bicycles is 30%-40%. This is a terrible number. The high damage rate shortens the maintenance cycle, makes many bicycles scrapped directly, and embezzles most of the gross profit margin.

At the same time, the high damage rate has also pushed up the labor cost of * * * enjoying the operation and maintenance of the bicycle platform. Ofo began to recruit offline operation and maintenance personnel from 20 16, and calculated that every 50 vehicles need to be equipped with 1 operation and maintenance personnel. According to the scale of launch at that time, only ofo needed to be equipped with 30,000 operation and maintenance personnel nationwide.

The monthly income of each operation and maintenance personnel is 4,000 yuan, and the annual operation and maintenance labor cost of ofo alone reaches about 65.438+0.44 billion yuan. If you add spare parts for maintenance, it is actually a loss to enjoy a bicycle. Gobee, a Hong Kong bicycle brand, withdrew from the French market on February 24th, 20th18th, because the high damage rate caused by man-made destruction raised the operation and maintenance costs, which eventually led to the company's loss.

Ofo is similar, 50 vehicles are equipped with 1 operation and maintenance personnel, and normal operation requires 30,000 operation and maintenance personnel. This kind of operation efficiency is actually lower than that of street vendors who used to rent bicycles. 1 Street vendors manage more than 100 bicycles, which can easily keep the breakage rate of rented bicycles at a very low level and make profits.

* * * Enjoy the bike and nothing else.

If * * * enjoys a bicycle like a bicycle rental company, users need to rent a car and return it at a fixed place, and the condition of the returned car will be checked by specialized personnel. Although the damage rate can be controlled within the normal range and the profit can be guaranteed, it has lost the great advantage of convenience, and enjoying a bicycle will become a traditional car rental; If we insist on the convenience of self-use cars, it will be difficult to prevent the evil of human nature, and the damage rate will reach the abnormally high level mentioned above, and it will be difficult for operators to make profits and lose money.

In a word, the business model of * * * enjoying bicycle is difficult to prevent the evil of human nature, which leads to the damage cost devouring all profits, which is the main reason for killing people in ofo and the biggest risk of investing in * * * enjoying the economy. It can be said that 654.38+000 billion * * enjoys the burning of economy, which is not lost to the disappearance of tuyere, but to humanity.