Hainan increased the purchase restriction, and the property market loosened the "one-day tour"

Since February, more than 60 cities have introduced regulatory policies to stabilize the real estate market. However, in terms of regulatory policies, Zhumadian City, which was the first to announce the down payment reduction, and Guangzhou City, which lifted the ban on residential purchases, have both withdrawn their documents and loosened the "one-day tour" policy. Hainan became the first city to tighten real estate control under the COVID-19 epidemic, and made it clear that it would adjust its industrial structure with the determination of a strong man to break the dependence of economic development on real estate. As a result, the trend of property market regulation under the impact of the epidemic has also attracted much attention from the market.

Hainan has become the first existing province in China to sell houses and get rid of the dependence on real estate.

On March 7, the General Office of Hainan Provincial Party Committee and the General Office of the Provincial Government issued the Notice on Establishing the Responsibility System for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Urban Real Estate Market (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which innovatively proposed to develop housing-oriented commercial housing, stopped selling housing-oriented commercial housing and market-oriented commercial housing to registered households and permanent residents (including couples and minor children) who already own two or more houses in our province, and stipulated that the existing housing sales system should be implemented for new commercial housing built by land transfer.

This is also the first city to tighten real estate regulation under the COVID-19 epidemic.

The "Notice" proposes to reform the pre-sale system of commercial housing and stipulate that new commercial housing built on land should be sold under the existing home sales system. Huo, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Hainan Province, pointed out that at present, a series of problems caused by the implementation of the pre-sale system of commercial housing in Hainan Province, such as quality complaints, contract disputes, delayed delivery, non-implementation of supporting facilities, illegal sales and even developers collecting money to run away, have become the most important factors of real estate complaints and disputes. The implementation of the existing housing sales system is to fundamentally eliminate a series of problems brought about by the pre-sale system.

Hainan began to "de-real estate" from June 20 18. Shen Xiaoming, then governor of Hainan Province, pointed out that in the next five years, Hainan will reduce its dependence on real estate with the determination of a strong man to break his wrist, and never let Hainan become a real estate processing factory. After that, the regulation of the property market was gradually strengthened, and the global purchase restriction was implemented on April 22 of the same year.

Huo pointed out that,

From the end of June, 5438 +2020 10, the COVID-19 epidemic has had a certain impact on the real estate industry in our province. However, by implementing the eight measures of the provincial government to support small and medium-sized enterprises to tide over the difficulties, and seven measures to help enterprises resume their work and production, we can effectively help real estate enterprises solve their difficulties, tide over the difficulties, speed up their work and resume production, and reduce the impact on the real estate industry. The promulgation of the "Notice" is not aimed at relaxing the regulation of the real estate market due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, but to further implement the requirements of the state on establishing a responsibility system for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, consolidate the effectiveness of real estate regulation, and maintain the stability of the real estate market. The original control policies will remain unchanged and be further improved.

One-day tour of Zhumadian and Guangzhou property market

Unlike Hainan, which was affected by the epidemic, many policies on the property market were introduced to ensure that the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market was minimized. From the perspective of policy strength, it is also growing.

/kloc-Before February of 0/3, most of the policies issued by various localities mainly focused on properly adjusting land supply policies, including delaying the signing of land transfer contracts, delaying land transfer fees, delaying the start and completion time, etc.

/kloc-After February of 0/4, some provinces and cities began to introduce a number of policies to promote the healthy development of the real estate market, and the contents of the policies began to expand to provide housing subsidies for buyers, deed tax subsidies, and reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund.

According to the data, according to incomplete statistics, in February 2020, more than 60 cities across the country issued real estate policies.

However, Zhumadian City, Henan Province, which first announced the "down payment loan", immediately withdrew the documents after being interviewed by the provincial government, and the city's real estate policy was still implemented according to the original policy.

On February 2 1 day, Zhumadian, Henan Province issued the Opinions on Further Standardizing and Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions), and issued the policy of 17 to stabilize the property market. This policy is the first demand-side stimulus policy, which proposes to reduce the down payment ratio of residents, and the minimum down payment ratio of the first home loan is reduced from 30% to 20%; Increase the loan amount of housing provident fund, and increase the maximum loan amount of housing provident fund from 450,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan; Reduce the down payment ratio of housing provident fund loans.

On February 28th, the website of Henan Provincial People's Government published an article, and the provincial government interviewed the main responsible comrades of Zhumadian Municipal People's Government, insisting on "staying in the house without speculation" and implementing the main responsibility.

Subsequently, the policy document was withdrawn from official website. The relevant staff of Zhumadian Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that the document had not been implemented and had been withdrawn, and it was implemented in accordance with the original policy.

Coincidentally, Guangzhou's "one-day tour" policy reappeared "lifting the ban".

The "Article 48" New Deal issued by the Guangzhou Municipal Government was re-hanged on the government official website at 22: 00+08 on March 4th. However, the content no longer mentions "optimizing the construction and sales management of commercial and service projects, and no longer defines the minimum division unit for commercial and service projects that have not completed the application procedures for planning and construction; Commercial service projects no longer restrict sales targets, and those that have registered their rights no longer restrict transfer targets. "

The above-mentioned "three unlimited" commercial service projects (no minimum division unit, no sales target and no transfer target) were interpreted by the industry as "residential housing".

The so-called "quasi-residence" is to design some commercial service projects into "quasi-residence" such as hotel-style apartments and apartment-style office buildings for sale under the general environment of residential purchase restriction. Because of its small area, unlimited purchase and low total price, it has become the choice of some customers who just need it, have no housing households and investors.

"The policies of these two places can easily be interpreted by the market as supporting real estate speculation or stimulating the purchase of houses, which touches the policy bottom line, so it is terminated." Zou Hualin, head of the housing big data group of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out.

In the report released by the Institute on February 28th, it was also mentioned that we should strictly control all kinds of behaviors that stimulate the purchase of houses, such as buying houses with leverage. The impact of the current epidemic on the real estate industry is mainly concentrated in the temporary financial difficulties of some enterprises. Take reasonable rescue measures for related enterprises in difficulty, and try to avoid helping real estate enterprises out of trouble by adding leverage to buy houses or other ways to stimulate the purchase of houses. Although the housing demand stimulus policy is easy to implement, it will easily lead to the ups and downs of housing prices in the future and increase macro-financial risks, which need to be strictly controlled.

The article signed by the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reiterated that "housing is not speculation"

On March 6th, Wang, Party Secretary and Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, published a signed article entitled "Promoting the High-quality Development of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction" in People's Daily. The article puts forward that efforts should be made to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Long-term adherence to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, continue to steadily implement the long-term mechanism planning for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, establish and improve real estate regulation and control systems and mechanisms such as policy coordination, regulation linkage, monitoring and early warning, public opinion guidance, and market supervision, implement the main responsibility of cities, implement policies and classify guidance according to cities, and maintain the stable operation of the real estate market.

Prior to this, on February 2 1, the People's Bank of China held a video conference on financial market work in 2020, proposing to maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies and continue to implement the long-term real estate management mechanism.

"The release of real estate control policies is the main responsibility of the city government. Judging from the policy of "one-day tour" between Zhumadian and Guangzhou, Zhumadian was interviewed by the Henan provincial government, which reflected the supervision responsibility of the provincial government. As far as Guangzhou's policy is concerned, because the nature of "quasi-housing" itself violates land use planning, it is necessary to make careful decisions. " Li said to him.

In Li's view, there have been some changes in public opinion and market expectations recently. Under the impact of the epidemic, it is necessary to complete the objectives and tasks of economic and social development this year. So it is expected that the real estate policy will be relaxed. At the same time, with the introduction of real estate liberalization policies by local governments, this expectation has intensified. However, we can see that both the suspension of policies in Zhumadian and Guangzhou and the recent public statements of the central bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have interrupted this expectation and sent a clear signal to the market that it will not release water again because of the epidemic, nor will it boost the economy through real estate.

Where is the property market regulation going?

Then, under the positioning of "staying in the house and not speculating" and keeping the real estate running smoothly, where will the property market regulation go?

Zou believes that in the current policy environment, as long as local governments insist on housing and not speculation, it is normal for them to raise prices or relax appropriately, with the aim of stabilizing the market.

Jaco's point of view is that the objectives of real estate regulation, namely, not speculating in real estate, taking measures according to the city and maintaining "three stabilities", will not change, and will be consistently implemented in 2020. The repeated deregulation policies in Zhumadian and Guangzhou and the cancellation of pre-sale in Hainan are essentially the means and ways to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market. The difference is that the former is more combined with the current market environment, while Hainan's policy is to consider the long-term healthy development of real estate. From the perspective of local real estate regulation, there will be loose and tight, strong and weak in the future, and the overall stable development of real estate in the country will remain unchanged.

"The real estate financial policy maintains continuity, consistency and stability. Under the principle of "no speculation in housing, one city, one policy", the tone of regulation has not changed much, so the property market regulation policy will also maintain continuity and stability. But at the same time, real estate regulation and control implements one city and one policy. It is feasible for local governments to make some policy adjustments in combination with the local property market without violating the principle of' housing and not speculating'. " Li said to him.

"I think the nature and extent of the impact of the current epidemic on the real estate market is still unclear, and the policies at the central level remain unchanged. According to the principle of city policy and the characteristics of local market, all localities have the willingness to adjust. On the whole, the policy of demand-side regulation of the real estate market will not undergo large-scale and substantial changes due to the epidemic, and will not repeat the old road of the past. " Xu Xiaole said.

Bobby Chen pointed out that the real estate control policy will focus more on reducing corporate taxes and fees, delaying the signing of land transfer contracts, delaying the collection of land transfer fees, and so on, in order to give some support to real estate. On the whole, under the principle of staying in the house and not speculating, there will be no major loosening and changes in the real estate policy.

Zou pointed out that whether the overall trend of future policies will be further tightened depends on the economic situation. Generally speaking, if monetary policy is loose, it may be further tightened to prevent funds from fully flowing into the real estate market.