Shanghai: The office market has stabilized the hidden worry of the second landlord model.

"The rental situation in the office market this year is indeed better than last year, which can be said to be' stable'." Li Jie (pseudonym), the head of the investment promotion department of a Grade A office building in Shanghai, described the phenomenon she observed to the Securities Times reporter. "But behind the bright data, there are also some hidden concerns. For example, many office buildings have' second landlords'. Once something goes wrong, it may be' a chicken feather'. "

Since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai office rental market has continued to pick up. Data from several real estate consulting agencies show that in the third quarter of this year, Shanghai's net absorption reached a new high, the vacancy rate declined steadily, and rents also stopped falling and rebounded.

Li Jie told reporters that this year's office market is striving for stability and will not blindly cut prices as it did last year. "When the' price war' was the worst last year, the price was lower than anyone else. If the rent really can't come down, it will subsidize the decoration fee. "

Section 3 Office Building Market

The net absorption reached a new high.

Wang Hong, general manager of China Xintiandi Commercial Management (Office), said in an interview that compared with the slight decline in the overall office market rent and occupancy rate affected by the epidemic last year, the office rental situation of 202 1 has recovered well, and the occupancy rates of the company's office buildings in Shanghai-Qitiandi No.5 and Yingnuo Chuangzhi have reached nearly full capacity. At the same time, Ruihong Enterprise World has been officially completed and welcomed the first batch of tenants, including T 65433.

Zhang Shuaiyin, head of the East China Office Department of China Resources Land Commercial, also told reporters that Lujiazui Riverside Center signed four single-family customers at its headquarters this year, including Puyin AXA Fund, Shanxi Securities, Xinxin Leasing and Reading Group, and also attracted many financial technology companies to settle in. "At present, there is only one single-family office building in Lujiazui Riverside Center, and several interested customers are in close negotiations."

The above office rental situation is the epitome of the recovery of Shanghai office market this year. According to the report released by CB Richard Ellis, the net absorption of office buildings in Shanghai continued to rise in the third quarter of this year, reaching a single-quarter high of 449,000 square meters. The trend of relocation and rent expansion has further expanded, and about 90% of the 19 sub-market has achieved positive growth. As of the end of the third quarter, the vacancy rate of Shanghai office market decreased by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month to 17. 1%.

"From the perspective of transaction types and lots, the demand for relocation and rent expansion accounts for as much as 70%." According to the CB Richard Ellis report, "it is hard to find a room in markets such as Qiantan and Nanjing West Road. The vacancy rate of Qiantan this quarter is as low as 4.3%, second only to the Bund."

Li Jie told reporters that in recent two years, many tenants in core business districts have indeed moved to emerging business districts such as Qiantan. On the one hand, various supporting facilities in emerging business districts such as Qiantan are not bad; On the other hand, the rent is 40% to 50% lower than that in the core business district, and some manufacturing enterprises tend to buy or lease the whole office building in the emerging business district.

While the net absorption reached a record high, the trend inflection point of the rent index also appeared. According to CB Richard Ellis' report, the office rent in Shanghai stopped falling and stabilized in the third quarter, and the quoted price and effective rent increased by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively compared with the previous quarter. In terms of vacancy rate, the vacancy rates of Shanghai's core business district, core expansion area and emerging business district in the third quarter were 1 1.9%, 17.9% and 2 1.7%, respectively, down by 0.9 percentage points, 0.9 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The relief of the epidemic and the economic recovery-this is the reason why Wang Hong has brought a good recovery in office leasing. "As a window city of China's opening to the outside world, based on the blessing of high-quality new supply and strategic emerging capital, the signs of recovery in the office market will continue."

Zhang Yue, East China consultant of CB Richard Ellis and head of the office building department, said: "The continuous growth of the demand for office buildings in 202 1 shows the good economic fundamentals of Shanghai as a window city for China's opening to the outside world. The new policy of "pioneer zone" in Pudong has gradually attracted more foreign financial and professional services to enter the regional market. In the third quarter, Pudong's demand increased by nearly 90% month-on-month, and the proportion of foreign investment increased significantly. " Reportedly, in the next six months, about 690,000 square meters of new office buildings in Shanghai are expected to enter the market, and the annual net absorption in Shanghai will reach a new high, and rents are expected to continue to rise.

The vacancy rate in non-central business district is high.

The second landlord model has hidden concerns.

While the rental market data is improving, in the eyes of the industry, there are also some hidden concerns in the Shanghai office market, such as the vacancy rate of non-central business districts reaching more than 20% and the endless "two-landlord model".

"The leasing situation this year is ok, definitely much better than last year, and basically the same as that in 20 19." A person from property leasing, a non-central business district, told the reporter, "But the surrounding office buildings are endless, and the pressure in the leasing process is much greater."

Although the leasing market in non-central business districts is also active, according to Jones Lang LaSalle's report, the vacancy rate rose by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month to 27.8%. "In recent years, Shanghai Grade A office buildings have developed rapidly, and the annual new supply is between 6,543,800 square meters and 6,543,800 square meters." Huang Zhen, the tenant representative director of Jones Lang LaSalle Shanghai Commercial Real Estate Department, told the reporter, "As for whether the vacancy rate is 15% or 20% tends to be healthy, there is no special figure at present."

Another industry analyst told reporters that from the vacancy rate, the figure of more than 20% is really not low. With the increasing supply, this may be a big worry in the future of non-central business circle.

Compared with the vacancy rate data of non-central business district, the "second landlord" model in the office market is even more worrying to the industry. Some individuals, technology companies or business consulting companies rent a whole floor of office buildings at a slightly lower price, then decorate and configure office furniture, divide them into offices of different sizes, and rent them to small and medium-sized tenants at a higher price. The second landlord's rent to the owner is not high, and there may be "stealing area" behavior.

"There are not a few' second landlords' in Shanghai office buildings. As far as I know, there are two or three' second landlords' in every office building around. " An industry insider told reporters. Li Jie also confirmed this phenomenon to reporters, but she is more worried about the sequelae than the competition brought by the second landlord. "In the past, almost all the modes of renting workstations have withdrawn from the stage. Once the second landlord has a problem, goes bankrupt or runs away, and the tenant is still there, the problem will be left to the owner, and it will definitely be a chicken feather. "