What is the development prospect of building assembly?

Major listed companies in the industry: Shanghai Construction Engineering (600170); China Architecture (601668); Yuanda residential workers (02 163. HK)； Youzhu Zhizao (00726. HK)； Hang Xiao (600477), etc.

Core data of this paper: prefabricated building area; Distribution of structural types; Output of PC prefabricated components

General situation of industry

1, definition

According to the Technical Standard for Assembled Concrete Building GB/T issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China

51231-2016 ",the prefabricated building refers to the building in which the main part of the structural system, the peripheral protection system, the equipment and piping system, the built-in system and the prefabricated components are integrated.

Prefabricated buildings can be divided into prefabricated concrete structures, prefabricated steel structures and prefabricated wood structures according to the main structural materials; Prefabricated houses are mainly divided into three development modes: prefabricated reinforced concrete structures, prefabricated light steel structures and prefabricated container houses.

2. Analysis of industrial chain: The industrial chain covers a wide range.

The upstream of the industrial chain where prefabricated buildings are located are mainly suppliers of raw materials such as cement and steel, as well as suppliers of related equipment needed for prefabricated buildings. Representative suppliers of raw materials include Jinyu Group and Conch. In the midstream field, the participating entities, such as prefabricated architectural design companies, are mainly responsible for the overall planning and detailed design of prefabricated buildings, and China Building Science and Technology Group and Shanghai Modern Architectural Design (Group) Co., Ltd. have strong competitive advantages in this field. R&D prefabricated components enterprises include Zhong Jian Steel Structure and Beixin Building Materials. Prefabricated components production and processing enterprises include Yuanda Residence, Seiko Steel Structure, Hangxiao, Youzhu Zhizao, etc. In terms of building construction, there are a large number of prefabricated building construction enterprises, and large enterprises represented by China Construction Group Co., Ltd., Baoye Group Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Construction Engineering Group Co., Ltd. have certain competitive advantages in this field. The downstream of the prefabricated building industry is mainly the management, operation and maintenance of prefabricated buildings. The main participants are major property companies, with Vanke Property Development Co., Ltd as the representative.

Greentown Property Services Group Co., Ltd. and Poly Property Development Co., Ltd. ..

Development course of the industry: The industry has ushered in a new stage of rapid development.

China's prefabricated buildings have developed for nearly 70 years, from manual operation to mechanized production, from reference to independent innovation, with highs and lows. In 1950s, China used the experience of the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries for reference to promote prefabricated buildings in China, and domestic industrial construction was enthusiastic, and prefabricated buildings with concrete structures developed rapidly. In the 1980s, the development of prefabricated buildings entered a trough due to poor seismic performance, waterproof and sound insulation. 2 1 century, under the background of "stricter environmental protection+labor shortage", prefabricated buildings have ushered in new development opportunities. Since 20 13, the central and local governments have continuously issued relevant policies to vigorously promote prefabricated buildings. In addition, the development of precast technology is becoming more and more mature, and various forms of architectural technology such as precast frame structure and precast shear wall structure have been formed. China's prefabricated building industry has ushered in a new stage of rapid development.

Industry policy background: vigorously promote prefabricated buildings

Under the background of manufacturing transformation and upgrading, the central government has continuously introduced relevant policies to promote the development of prefabricated construction industry. 20 16 is the first year of prefabricated buildings in China. The Guiding Opinions on Vigorously Developing Prefabricated Buildings issued by the General Office of the State Council pointed out that the prefabricated building industry should be developed from multiple levels and angles. In recent years, in the environment of energy conservation and environmental protection, prefabricated buildings have been strongly supported by national policies because they can shorten construction time, reduce material waste and reduce manual and wet operations on site.

Current situation of industry development

1. The area and proportion of prefabricated buildings are increasing year by year.

At present, China's construction industry is still a labor-intensive traditional industry with cast-in-place construction as the main mode, and the building products provided by traditional construction methods can no longer meet people's beautiful demand for high-quality building products. Therefore, China needs to vigorously develop prefabricated buildings.

With the active promotion of prefabricated buildings in various places, the scale of new prefabricated buildings in China is growing. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, from 20 16 to 202 1 year, the area of newly built prefabricated buildings in China increased year by year. In 20021year, the newly started prefabricated building area in China reached 740 million square meters, an increase of 18% over 2020, accounting for 24.5% of the newly started building area. Prefabricated buildings show a good momentum of vigorous development.

2. Assembled concrete structure is the main type of assembled building.

According to the types and structures of prefabricated buildings, in 20021year, 490 million square meters of prefabricated concrete structures were newly started, an increase of 13.95% compared with 2020, accounting for 67.7% of newly started prefabricated buildings; Assembled steel structure buildings are 2 1 10,000 square meters, an increase of 10.53% compared with 2020, accounting for 28.8% of newly-started assembled buildings. Among them, the assembled steel structure residential project was 6.5438+0.509 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 25%. The rapid popularization of prefabricated steel structure integrated modular buildings has played an important role in the prevention and control of epidemic situation in COVID-19.

3. There are many provincial-level assembly construction industrial bases in China.

With the enhancement of policy-driven and market endogenous power, the related industries of prefabricated buildings have developed rapidly. According to the data of "2020 National Prefabricated Building Development Bulletin" issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, by 2020, 328 national prefabricated building industrial bases have been built nationwide, accounting for 27%. There are 908 provincial industrial bases, accounting for 73%.

Note: As of September 2022, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has not released the latest data, and the data in 2020 are used in the above table.

4, efforts to promote the rapid growth of regional prefabricated building area.

According to the division of labor of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the three major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are the key areas to promote prefabricated buildings, while other cities with a permanent population of more than 3 million are actively promoted areas and the rest are encouraged areas. According to the statistical data of 20 17-20 19, the area of newly-started prefabricated buildings in key promotion areas is increasing year by year, and the prefabricated buildings in developed eastern areas continue to lead the national development. At the same time, other provinces and cities are gradually developing on a large scale.

In 20021year, the newly started prefabricated building area in key promotion areas was 385.7 million square meters, accounting for 52.1%of the whole country; The newly-started prefabricated building area in the active promotion area and the encouraged promotion area is 354.6 million square meters, accounting for 47.9%. The newly-started prefabricated building area in key promotion areas, active promotion areas and encouraged promotion areas has increased compared with 2020, showing a trend of going hand in hand and sustained and rapid growth.

5. The market demand of the prefabricated construction industry continued to be released.

According to the consumption quota of prefabricated buildings, the average cost of prefabricated concrete structure buildings is about 2284 yuan /m2, and the average cost of prefabricated steel structure buildings is about 2776 yuan /m2. According to the proportion of two types and two newly started prefabricated buildings released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development over the years, the market scale of prefabricated buildings in recent years is calculated. It is preliminarily estimated that the market size of China's prefabricated buildings may reach 1702 1 billion yuan in 20021year, in which the market size of prefabricated concrete structures is about1192 billion yuan, and the market size of prefabricated steel structures is about 583 billion yuan.

Note: The market size is calculated according to the newly-started prefabricated building area * average cost per square meter.

Industry competition pattern

1. Regional competition: Hunan and Jiangsu have the highest productivity of concrete structures and steel structures.

The production capacity of prefabricated building concrete structures in China is mainly distributed in Hunan, Jiangsu, Shandong, Jiangxi and other places, among which Hunan Province has the highest production capacity, mainly PC structure. This is mainly because China's largest PC component manufacturer and PC equipment manufacturer-Yuanda Residential Engineering is headquartered in Changsha, Hunan Province, which provides convenient conditions for the development of prefabricated PC buildings in Hunan Province. According to the data released by the Ministry of Construction, in 2020, the production capacity of assembled concrete structures in Hunan Province accounted for 19.8%, and Jiangsu Province ranked second with 1 1.5%. Shandong ranked third with 9.6%.

Note: As of September 2022, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has not released the latest data. The above table is based on data analysis in 2020, the same below.

In terms of steel structure, China's assembled steel structure production capacity is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region, and Jiangsu Province's steel structure production capacity accounts for about 1/5, ranking first; Anhui, Shandong and Zhejiang ranked second, third and fourth respectively, with production capacity accounting for 9.8%, 8.6% and 6.0% respectively.

2. Enterprise competition: Central enterprises and state-owned enterprises occupy the dominant position in the industry.

At present, the competition in China's prefabricated construction industry is divided into two echelons: the first echelon is the national team represented by China Construction Group, including large and medium-sized central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises at all levels; The second echelon is a private enterprise represented by Vanke, Sany, Yuanda and Hangxiao.

In June, 2022, China Concrete and Cement Products Association released the output data of national key PC prefabricated components enterprises. Shanghai Construction Engineering ranked first with the output of 623,700 cubic meters, and the total output of the top ten PC prefabricated components reached 333 1.400 cubic meters.

Industry development prospect and trend forecast

-In 2035, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings will reach more than 30%.

In June 5438 +2022 10, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" for the development of construction industry, and put forward the key tasks of vigorously developing prefabricated buildings. It is estimated that by 2035, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings will reach more than 30%, and its specific objectives are as follows:

-Project management integration and core technology upgrading are the main development trends of the industry.

Because the traditional market concept will make many users think that the quality of prefabricated buildings cannot be guaranteed, the relevant government departments should continue to carry out relevant publicity and guidance. In addition, the assembly building construction technology has turned the whole building production into a production mode with relatively high management requirements, which puts forward the integration requirements for design, production and construction, and also puts forward the integration requirements for engineering management supervision, which poses a higher challenge to the ability of engineering management supervision units. Therefore, the establishment of a new integrated production management system for prefabricated buildings must take this as the core.

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Investment Planning of Assembled Construction Industry in China by Prospective Industry Research Institute.