Shenzhen real estate annual report forecast

The Performance of Agile in 2020

The performance reached a new high, exceeding the sales target and expanding the revenue and profit space.

Sales: In 2020, Agile achieved sales of13810.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17 1%, exceeding the annual sales target of199.6 billion yuan for three consecutive years.

Operating income: By the end of 2020, Agile achieved an operating income of 80.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%.

Profit indicator: Agile's net profit in 2020 was 65.438+0.225 billion yuan, up 365.438+0.3% year-on-year; The net profit returned to the mother increased by 2.6 1% year-on-year, reaching 9.48 billion yuan; The gross profit margin of 30% for the whole year is basically the same as last year; The ROE was 65,438+09.9%, up 2.3% year-on-year.

If you step on the line again, the asset structure still needs to be optimized.

Three red lines: Agile Real Estate has still stepped on one of the "three red lines" for 20 years and continues to belong to the yellow file. After deducting the 20-year advance payment, the asset-liability ratio is 72.2%, which is 4 percentage points lower than last year, but still higher than 70%. The net debt ratio was 62.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 265,438+0%; Short-term cash debt ratio 1.29, up 0.29 year-on-year, so we need to be vigilant.

Planning 20021:On March 23rd, Agile 2020 Performance Meeting will be held online. At the performance meeting, Pan Zhiyong said that Agile's real estate sales target in 20021year is150 billion yuan. At the same time, Agile said that its total investment this year is about 40 billion yuan, including 32 billion yuan in real estate and 8 billion yuan in other industries. "Even better, it may be added a little, and the total investment will reach about 45 billion yuan."

Table: Report Card of Agile in 2020

Based on the comprehensive evaluation of 33 three-level indicators corresponding to nine factors, such as scale, growth ability, profitability, operation ability, capital and solvency, soil storage capacity, market share, liquidity and enterprise nature, Agile's comprehensive strength rating in 2020 was A+, and its comprehensive strength rating was 8, which was the same as last year, but the rating echelon increased slightly.

one

Company development strategy

Brand real estate enterprises in Guangdong Province, with eight businesses developing in coordination, create multi-win advantages: established in 1992, it is a comprehensive enterprise group with real estate as its main business and multi-business developing in coordination. After 28 years of development, Agile has formed a parallel operation pattern of eight industrial groups: real estate, elegant life (property), environmental protection, elegant city (ecological human settlement service), housing management, capital investment, business management and urban renewal, with total assets exceeding 36,543.8+03.7 billion yuan.

Deeply cultivate Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta and prudently expand overseas markets: by the end of 2020, Agile's business scope covers 200 cities at home and abroad; The total land reserve is about 53,065,438+0,000 square meters, distributed in 84 cities in South China, East China, West China, Central China, Hainan and Yunnan, North China, Hong Kong and overseas. Among them, the land reserve in Greater Bay Area is about 6.5438+0354 million square meters, accounting for 25.5%, and the land reserve in the Yangtze River Delta is 6.94 million square meters, accounting for 654.38+03.1%; Five projects have been developed in overseas cities such as Kuala Lumpur, Phnom Penh and San Francisco, with a land reserve of about 360,000 square meters, accounting for 0.7%.

Deepen the national layout and adhere to the diversified strategy of land purchase: In 2020, Agile will add 40 new projects through bidding, auction, land application and equity acquisition, with a total new construction area of 836 1 0,000 square meters, accounting for 18.7% of the total land reserve. The equity area is 6.368 million square meters (76%). Six markets including Baoji, Guiyang, Qidong, Taixing, Taiyuan and Zhaoqing were opened during the year.

two

Financial ability analysis

(1) revenue scale

Diversified business development accelerated the overall performance growth, driving the gross profit to increase by 365,438+0.3% year-on-year.

Since 17, Agile's operating income, net profit and sales have been on the rise. In the past 20 years, the year-on-year growth rate of revenue and net profit attributable to the mother has further expanded to 33.2% and 26. 1%, while the gross profit has increased by 3 1.3%.

Under the double squeeze of high land price and new house price limit, the profit space of housing enterprises is gradually compressed, and the decline of gross profit becomes a common phenomenon in 2020. Agile rose by 365,438+0.3% against the trend, and the support behind it was not only the increase in sales, but also the outstanding performance of property management and environmental protection.

In the past 20 years, the income growth rates of property management and environmental protection are 1 19.3% and 5 1.7% respectively. In terms of business proportion, the diversified business of the Group accounted for 65,438+04% in 20 years, up 4% year-on-year, with a view to expanding operating income.

The growth rate of sales area weakened, and the proportion of sales carry-over income decreased. It is necessary to speed up the project cycle operation and speed up the withdrawal of funds.

Compared with other indicators, Agile's sales area growth rate in 20 years is relatively slow. From the perspective of sales carry-over income, only 50% was carried over in 20 years, which was 4 percentage points higher than that in 19, but still lower than that in 17 and 18.

Restricted by various regulatory policies, many traditional housing enterprises have also expanded diversified businesses to balance risks, improve profit margins and continue to develop. We expect that the proportion of Agile's diversified business will gradually increase.

(2) Profitability

The proportion of non-operating income is high, so it is necessary to strengthen the profitability of the main business to improve the quality of income.

By comparing Agile's 20-year net profit, return on net assets and operating indicators of net income with the echelon average, it is found that Agile's 20-year net profit (122 1 billion yuan) and return on net assets (19.9%) are higher than the echelon average (9.58 billion yuan and 16.8%).

Mainly due to its relatively high proportion of non-operating income, of which Agile's income from selling subsidiaries, joint ventures and associated enterprises is about 2.66 billion yuan.

Agile's net income operation index has been lower than the echelon average for two consecutive years, but all the indicators have improved compared with last year. In the future, it is necessary to further adjust the business structure and increase the sales growth rate.

(3) Operational ability

The overall operating capacity is low, and the turnover rate will increase slightly in 2020 after a continuous decline.

From 17, Agile's turnover rate continued to decline. After 20 years, the turnover rate of total assets and inventory began to accelerate. We also saw that last year, the whole real estate industry was shortening the project operation cycle and speeding up the sales repayment.

With the introduction of the "two concentration" policy this year, the demand for the turnover speed of housing enterprises will be higher in the future, and Agile needs to continue to improve its operational capacity to ensure its market share and competitiveness.

Capital and solvency

Still stepping on one of the "three red lines", the loan ratio and financing cost are high, and the listing of sub-components will provide more funds.

In the past 20 years, Agile's net debt ratio was 62.3%, down 2 1 percentage point year-on-year; After deducting the advance payment, the asset-liability ratio was 72.2%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year; Short-term cash debt ratio 1.29, up 0.29 year-on-year. After deducting the 20-year advance payment, the asset-liability ratio will still step on the red line, and the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities in the future will be limited to 10%.

At the same time, we also see that Agile has begun to adjust its asset structure. The 20-year net loan ratio is 6 1%, down 2 1.8% year-on-year, but the financing cost of 6.6% is still relatively high in the industry.

In the past two years, Agile's debt structure was relatively stable, and 70% of its loans mainly came from bank loans and other loans. In June 2020, the Group has applied for listing its Yacheng property rights document on the Hong Kong stock market. With the expansion of financing channels, it is expected that the future debt pressure will be controllable.

three

Analysis of development ability

(1) Soil storage capacity

The increase in sales area did not drive land acquisition, the investment-sales ratio was lower than the average level of the echelon, and the capital utilization was not sufficient.

Since 18, the new soil storage area of Agile has been decreasing year by year. In the past 20 years, the new soil storage area of Agile was only 8.36 million square meters, down by 23.3% year-on-year, but the sales area increased by/kloc-0.5% year-on-year, reaching/kloc-0.025 million square meters, the highest in three years.

Comparing Agile's land sales ratio since 18, it is found that Agile's land sales ratio in 20 years is only 0.82, which is 0.4 lower than 19, which is lower than the echelon average of 0.87 for the first time, and the land sales ratio of equity has also shrunk to 0.5. Prior to this, Agile sold more land in 18 and 19 than the industry average.

Judging from the increasing sales volume year by year, Agile's capital utilization efficiency is low, and it has failed to make full use of funds to expand land reserves.

The cost of land acquisition is properly controlled, and the premium rate continues to fall. The premium rate of land acquisition in 20 years is lower than the average level of the echelon.

In 20 years, the average floor price of Agile land was 3,627 yuan/m2, up 7.8% year-on-year, but the premium rate dropped from 15.6% in 9 years to 10.6%, which was lower than the echelon average 16.2%.

This is mainly because Agile has adjusted its land acquisition cities in Greater Bay Area and East China in the past 20 years, reducing the land acquisition area of high premium second-tier cities and increasing the layout of first-tier cities to balance the overall premium rate and land acquisition cost.

In addition, Agile also actively develops urban renewal projects, further reducing the cost of land acquisition. It can be seen that Agile is becoming more and more cautious in land acquisition strategy.

The quality of soil storage has improved, and the proportion of new soil storage in first-and second-tier cities has increased to 50%. Insist on deepening Greater Bay Area, focusing on East China.

In the past 20 years, the proportion of new soil reserves in first-and second-tier cities of Agile Real Estate reached 50.5%, up by 15 percentage points year-on-year, but still lower than the echelon average of 6 1%. South China accounts for 30.5% of the newly added soil reserves, followed by East China, accounting for 25.8%. Agile took 25.2% of the land in Greater Bay Area in 20 years, which is directly equal to the whole East China.

The area and amount of land taken by key cities account for 70%, among which Guangzhou, Zhongshan, Tianjin, Wuxi, Kunming, Chengdu, Changzhou, Zhaoqing and other cities all have a high proportion of volume and price, but the cultivation depth is not enough, so we can count on urban renewal projects in the future.

In the past 20 years, Agile's nine key cities have taken a total land of 65.438+0.63 billion yuan, accounting for 70%, of which a single city in Guangzhou has taken a land of 2.75 billion yuan, accounting for 654.38+02%, and Greater Bay Area has taken a total land of 32%.

In terms of land acquisition area, Agile's total land acquisition area in 1 1 key cities is 5.84 million square meters, accounting for 70%, of which the land acquisition area in Zhongshan alone is 920,000 square meters, accounting for 1 1%. Compared with real estate enterprises with the same sales scale, the average land acquisition in key cities is 80%. Agile's deep-ploughing ability is still insufficient, and the urban layout is scattered.

In the past 20 years, six markets have been added, bringing the total land coverage to 84 cities. Compared with Yuexiu Real Estate, which is also deeply involved in Greater Bay Area, Agile's land acquisition ratio in Greater Bay Area is 32%, which is far less than Yuexiu's 68%, and its deep-ploughing ability needs to be strengthened.

(2) Market share

The annual sales target of 1 15.2% was exceeded, the increase of sales area exceeded the average sales price, and the average land sales price ratio continued to fall, and the product line was "just needed".

In the past 20 years, Agile has achieved the annual sales contract of13810.90 billion yuan, up by 1% year-on-year, exceeding the annual target of1/0.5%, and the average contract sales price is about13,482 yuan/. Judging from the proportion of sales in Agile first-and second-tier cities, this average sales price corresponds to most of the "just-needed" products in the city.

The average proportion of land sold has been declining since 18. Although it is still higher than the average level of the echelon on the whole, Agile's land reserve needs to be strengthened to support sales. At the same time, we can consider improving the quality of the project to increase the average selling price.

Sales of key cities accounted for 765,438+0%. Except Guangzhou and Zhongshan, the sales contribution of other cities is small, and the sales cities are scattered. It is necessary to strengthen deep cultivation and ensure the sales contribution of a single city.

According to the statistics of Zhongke Jincai Artificial Intelligence Research Institute, the sales rationality difference of Agile in 2020 is-65.438+0008 billion yuan, which is 36.7 billion yuan lower than the difference of 65.438+09, but it is still far below the current echelon average of-67 billion yuan.

The reason for the difference in sales volume is that Agile has been deeply cultivated in Guangzhou and Zhongshan for many years, while other cities are scattered. The proportion of land acquisition and sales in key cities is about 70%, which is lower than the average level of the echelon. There is no way to guarantee the contribution of a single city in terms of quantity and price.

Judging from the sales distribution this year, the sales achieved in new key second-tier cities such as Tianjin, Foshan, Nanjing, Chongqing and Wuxi have not exceeded 5 billion. How to increase the land acquisition of key cities in other regions in the future is also an expansion strategy that Agile needs to consider.

(3) Liquidity

The liquidation speed has been improved, and the inventory clearance cycle is faster. Therefore, the storage value of high-quality soil should be appropriately increased to increase sales.

Agile's 20-year sales value is 220 billion yuan, divided by 20-year sales of 654.38+0382 billion yuan; It is concluded that it takes about 20 months to digest the current year's goods value, which is lower than the echelon average of 30 months; At the same time, the inventory destocking cycle is also relatively fast, about 22 months.

Judging from the three-year liquidation trend, the land-to-sales ratio (amount) is also decreasing year by year, only 0.22 in 20 years. We have analyzed before that Agile's land acquisition funds have not been fully utilized. In the future, it is necessary to appropriately increase the reserve of high-quality soil, increase the intensity of deep cultivation in a single city, and further accelerate the development of the company.

spend freely

sales forecast

The inventory value at the beginning of 20265438+the value of commodities locked by urban renewal can support the overfulfilling of its planned sales target of 202 1 year150 billion yuan.

By the end of 2020, Agile has a land reserve of 53,065,438+10000 ㎡. Calculated by the average selling price13,482 yuan /m2, the final commodity value is about 714.7 billion yuan, which is 5.2 times of the sales in 2020, and the final commodity value reserve is sufficient. At the beginning of 20021,the saleable value of the company's new soil storage and projects was about166.2 billion yuan, and it is estimated that Agile will achieve annual sales of104.5 billion yuan in 20021year.

However, Agile did not completely turn the urban renewal project into land reserve before. At present, the total value of the company's urban renewal projects is 360 billion yuan. We expect Agile to exceed its sales target of 65.438+05 billion yuan in 265.438+0 years.

conclusion

Agile experienced a difficult 19 year, but unexpectedly ushered in another 20-year epidemic. I thought that Agile's performance in 20 years would be more worrying than that in 19, but Agile unexpectedly handed over a seemingly perfect report card. A number of core indicators increased by about 30% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin remained at 30%. After in-depth dialysis, it is found that Agile has inevitably stepped on a red line. Although it has begun to step off the stage of highly leveraged games, the financing cost of 6.6% is still relatively high in the industry.

For real estate enterprises, in addition to looking at financial indicators, we are actually more concerned about how the land of the enterprise is taken, how much it is taken, and how the house is sold. Behind the rapid growth of Agile's operating income and net profit, we found that the company's houses were sold slowly, land was taken less, house prices rose slowly, the profitability of its main business began to decline, and diversified businesses such as property management and environmental protection began to rescue the market. The traditional development lost its market share and began to turn to urban renewal to find a way out.

2 1 year, Agile has set itself a sales target of150 billion yuan, an increase of only 8.5% year-on-year, which is half of the growth rate this year. Combined with its urban renewal project, we predict that Agile has the ability to exceed the sales target, but it remains to be seen whether its financial indicators will be as bright as 20 years later.