Facing the real estate market in China, please state your views and opinions. What model essays are there?

House prices are greatly influenced by the market and overall policies. Judging from the current national conditions and policies, house prices in China will not fall in three years.

First of all, the urbanization process has pushed up housing prices.

The urbanization level of China is only over 40%, while the average level of developed countries is over 70%. There is still a big gap between China and this level, that is to say, there are still a large number of farmers entering the city. These farmers need housing, and the housing demand space is huge. China is in the process of economic adjustment and growth, and the urbanization process is accelerating. The acceleration of urbanization is bound to be accompanied by a large number of non-urban population pouring into cities.

You know, China is a big agricultural country, and the rural population accounts for the majority. Farmers who go to cities alone are a very attractive figure in housing consumption. Unless the urbanization process is stagnant, farmers will not go to cities.

Second, the city of China is in a period of rapid development of demolition and construction.

China's urban expansion is only accelerating. Today, the urban area of a city was still very small a few years ago, and after three to five years, the urban area has doubled. Take Guangzhou as an example. A few years ago, the urban area was only 1000 square kilometers, but today it has expanded to more than 3800 square kilometers. The rapid expansion of cities will inevitably lead to large-scale demolition and construction. After the expansion, a large number of people need to match their lives and jobs. In addition, large-scale demolition construction has also led to a large number of demolition needs, and all of them are large houses for small houses, and high-grade houses for ordinary houses. A city cannot become an empty city after expansion. Facts have proved that wherever the city expands, the population will be filled.

Third, economic development is inseparable from real estate, and the status of pillar industries remains unshakable.

A few years ago, big cities regarded real estate as a pillar industry. Now the economic development of big cities is on the right track. Although the status of real estate as a pillar industry is not obvious, it still plays a decisive role. In second-,third-and fourth-tier cities, real estate is still a well-deserved pillar industry, which is also the fundamental reason why the central government regulates and controls, but local governments do not cooperate. For the second, third and fourth tier cities, especially the third and fourth tier cities, the industry is weak and the hematopoietic function of the cities is insufficient. Only real estate can drive economic development. The development of real estate is the leader of urban direction. Where the real estate develops, the city extends. No one can underestimate the driving role of real estate, which has driven the development of almost all industries. For example, clothing and cosmetics seem to have nothing to do with real estate. In fact, the development of clothing and cosmetics also has the credit of real estate, and a large number of clothing and cosmetics theme shopping malls and professional markets are driving its development. Without real estate, all walks of life will be hit to varying degrees.

Fourth, real estate has become the main source of income for local finance.

It is an indisputable fact that real estate has become the main source of local government revenue. We don't say that real estate will stimulate the local economy, but that the land supply needed for real estate development is the support point of local finance. If there is a lack of land revenue, local governments will be short of money, reduce fiscal revenue and affect the administrative power and authority of local governments. Therefore, no matter how the central government regulates it, local governments have their own abacus. If they can't publicly support real estate, they will support it secretly. This is also an important factor for central regulation to become "air conditioning".

For example, the state stipulates that before obtaining the pre-sale certificate, lottery, fund-raising, registration, reservation, etc. are not allowed. Except for first-tier cities, such as second, third and fourth-tier cities, it is basically not implemented. The government turned a blind eye and actually secretly supported real estate development.

Fifth, the surge in luxury consumption has led to soaring housing prices.

Some time ago, it was rumored that China's richest people spent a lot of money in the United States, "I have nothing but money", which is exactly the same as when farmers washed their feet and went to the fields overnight during the reform and opening up. China has just become rich. Due to long-term poverty and backwardness, coupled with a weak cultural foundation, once they have a few small money in their hands, their "small peasant consciousness" will rise, which is one of them. Secondly, because many people in China have money, they live a good life, and their lifestyles have undergone a qualitative change, from having ample food and clothing to enjoying life. At present, China people's enjoyment consciousness is increasing day by day. Spacious and luxurious housing is one of the most important elements to enjoy life, so many people start to change rooms. The larger the area, the higher the grade. China's luxury consumption has shocked the world, and it is surging. These rich people are generous in buying houses. They buy the house they like as soon as they see it, and most of them pay in one lump sum. Because they have plenty of money.

Sixth, pay attention to controlling the excessive rise in housing prices, not suppressing them.

People in the industry will be asked the same question: what will the future real estate look like? Where will it go? Why does the country always have a problem with real estate? People who ask these questions have no idea at all, that is, why should the state regulate real estate? What is the real intention of regulating real estate? Many developers always think that the state is suppressing real estate. Because of this, once there is a regulatory policy, they are restless and at a loss.

Why should the state regulate real estate? Because of the rapid development of real estate, it occupies the "overtaking lane" for a long time, which seriously affects the passage of other vehicles; Because house prices have risen so fast that they are almost upside down, which is not conducive to improving people's livelihood. The purpose of the central government's regulation is clear, but no one understands it. Note that the central government's regulation of real estate is to control the excessive rise of real estate prices, or to "control too fast" and control profiteering. The real intention is not to let the real estate price rise too fast, but it can rise reasonably. It is to control the reasonable rise of real estate prices together, not to suppress real estate. The central government's influence and pulling effect on the real estate economy is very clear, and it is impossible to suppress real estate. In this sense, real estate will continue to make great strides, and expecting house prices to fall within five years is tantamount to dreaming. Of course, house prices fluctuate, and will rise soon after a short-term downward adjustment, and the main line will rise.