The sudden "black swan" makes China automobile industry face unprecedented challenges.

An automobile industry, related to 100 related industries; 1 auto workers, driving employment in related industries above 10; Automobile consumption is a big part of consumer goods. But now, production stagnation and cold demand are testing this huge industrial industry in both directions.

Tragedy! On February 3rd, China, Shenzhen and Shanghai finally ushered in the delayed opening holiday.

Among the 50 auto-related listed companies in K-line statistics, except Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., all the other A-share auto listed companies have experienced different degrees of decline (note: there are several growth in Hong Kong stocks), among which 30 stocks have fallen below the limit. There are many vehicle manufacturers such as Changan Automobile, Beiqi Blue Valley and Zotye Automobile, as well as parts and distributors such as Guo Xuan Hi-Tech, Sheng Jun Electronics, China Automobile and SINOMACH.

Although the five departments jointly issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Financial Support to Prevent and Control novel coronavirus on February 1 February, on February 2, the central bank officially announced that it would invest10.2 trillion yuan in the open market reverse repurchase operation to ensure sufficient liquidity supply, and invested 900 billion yuan more than the same period last year, but on February 3, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2746.6 1, down 7.72 year-on-year. The Shenzhen Component Index fell below the 10000 mark, closing at 9779.67 points, down 8.45%, and about 3200 stocks in the two cities fell. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose slightly by 0. 17%.

It is not difficult to find that on February 3rd, China stock market broke out the mood of saving for the holidays for nearly 10 days, and the two major stock indexes consolidated at a low level all day. The data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has the biggest decline in 23 years, and only the concepts of medicine and masks have strengthened in the two cities.

For auto-related listed companies, it is roughly the same as the broader market. Are there any eggs left under the cover of the nest? This strategic pillar industry and manufacturing pillar of the national economy also encountered the biggest challenge in 10 years because of the epidemic.

Then, as an important pillar of the real economy, what challenges are listed companies in the automobile industry facing? How to deal with it?

Most companies have pressure on their annual income and net profit.

Judging from the geographical distribution of the epidemic, except Northeast China, Hubei, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hunan, Anhui, Sichuan, Anhui, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Beijing and Shanghai are all "automobile production towns" and also key epidemic areas (as of February 3rd, the first batch of confirmed cases ranked 15). However, the resumption of work in these areas has been postponed again, indicating that there is great pressure to fight the epidemic.

The author roughly estimates that the automobile production capacity in the above-mentioned areas with serious epidemic situation exceeds the national overall automobile production capacity by about 80%. Therefore, in the face of the long-term impact of the delayed start of the factory and the reduction of demand and income caused by the national epidemic, automobile enterprises will face double pressures.

After all, one shot went off, and there were two thousand gold. Once the production line is started, the vehicles will not be sold, and there will be a series of problems such as inventory and impairment. Of course, even if the resumption of work is postponed, as we all know, compared with other industries, automobile enterprises still face huge fixed costs and huge expenses, such as personnel salaries, equipment maintenance, asset impairment, property and rent.

According to the 20 19 performance forecast published by the relevant automobile companies, many companies issued profit warnings, predicting that profits would decrease and losses would occur. For example: 65438+1October 13, SAIC issued a performance forecast, and estimated that the net profit last year was 25.6 billion yuan, down 28.9% year-on-year; On June 365438+1October 3 1 day, Changan Automobile, which has just improved, released a performance forecast of 20 19. It is estimated that the company made a pre-loss of 2.4-2.9 billion yuan last year, and will make a profit of 680 million yuan in 20 18. ...

Closer to home, aside from the heavy 20 19, back in 2020, the first two months of the new year were so "thumped" by the external environment, and it is conceivable how big challenges the listed companies in the automobile industry will face this year.

Even for Zotye Automobile, Haima Automobile, Lifan, Huatai and other companies, it will accelerate its disappearance. Although the epidemic situation is ruthless, it may accelerate the integration and reorganization of China's automobile industry to some extent.

Policies may be needed to help the auto industry again.

On February 3rd, according to CCTV4, Li Lanjuan, a member of the senior expert group of National Health Commission and an academician of China Academy of Engineering, said that there might be a "peak period" of the epidemic. Therefore, it is not excluded that the epidemic will continue to affect the start-up and consumer demand of enterprises. Especially the impact on the stock market should not be underestimated.

Therefore, K-line believes that in addition to the war epidemic, China needs to consider boosting consumer confidence and helping enterprises to reduce operating pressure.

On the one hand, manufacturing enterprises in the real economy, including automobile manufacturers and their suppliers, need further support in tax reduction and financial subsidies; On the other hand, on the consumer side, it may be necessary to reduce the purchase tax, or even introduce a subsidy policy like 20 10 to reduce the car cost of car consumers.

In addition, support should also be given to automobile dealers in various regions. At present, there are more than 20,000 car dealers in China. Although the number is large, the ability to resist risks is weak, and many of them are personal investments. Because no one is in charge of the store, the loss is hundreds of thousands or even millions a month, and the capital chain is likely to break, triggering a "domino effect" and causing instability.

So it is of course important to fight the epidemic. For the automobile industry, it is necessary to make contributions and plan well in the process. At the same time, consider reviving the confidence of yourself and consumers after the outbreak, and plan ahead.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.