What are the companies that benefit the most from real estate reorganization and merger?

Recently, the only two hot spots in the market are real estate and central enterprises. After the implementation of the "second arrow", many real estate companies obtained more than10 billion credit, which greatly eased their liquidity and became one of the few rising sectors in the process of market adjustment. Yi Huiman, Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission recently emphasized "exploring the construction of a valuation system with China characteristics", and the construction and real estate sectors rose again.

On the evening of 28th, the CSRC reported that real estate companies in AH and other places resumed equity financing (which could not be used for land acquisition). The leaders selected $ Joy City (SZ00003 1)$, a real estate company of central enterprises, to publish a paper quickly and share with you my views on the company and the real estate industry.

First, central enterprises/state-owned real estate companies have strong business resilience.

Under several rounds of control policies, the real estate industry has reached the "March 9" of the preseason. Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that in June-1October this year, the national investment in real estate development was 1- 1.3945 billion yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 0.8 percentage point higher than that in June-September.

Other key indicators, such as building construction area, newly started area, completed area and commercial housing sales, are completely misfiring.

The Research Report of Top Real Estate Enterprises 100 in China in 2022 released by Central Reference Institute shows that the number of seats in the top real estate enterprises 100 in China has undergone earth-shaking changes this year. The ranking of central enterprises/state-owned real estate companies moved forward as a whole, with Poly, China Shipping and China Resources all among the top 5, and Joy City Holdings, which has a more balanced business, rose to 23rd place.

Joy City signed a contract worth 28.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, down 265,438+0% compared with the same period of last year, which was better than the market performance of real estate in the same period. Compared with the ranking at the end of 20021,Ke Rui's transaction amount list rose by 17 places to 32nd place. Joy City's performance can outperform the real estate market, mainly because it is backed by COFCO and has a greater cash flow advantage.

Second, the changes of the times! The certainty of housing enterprises has changed from land acquisition to cash flow.

The cycle of rising house prices, developers taking land = the guarantee of performance, with the golden cycle of real estate passing, the enthusiasm of housing enterprises to take land has obviously cooled down. In the first half of this year, due to insufficient cash flow, private real estate companies were afraid to take land, lacked money for turnover, and the project delivery rate was poor, resulting in frequent double killings of shares and debts. The "certainty" of the real estate industry has changed from land acquisition to cash flow, and central enterprises/state-owned enterprises usually have no similar problems.

Take Joy City as an example. In terms of bank financing channels, Joy City signed an M&A financing cooperation agreement of 20 billion yuan with China Merchants Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank at the beginning of the year, and signed an intentional credit contract of 30 billion yuan with Agricultural Bank in June 5438+065438+ 10, including fixed assets loans, M&A loans and bonds.

In terms of non-bank channel credit, Joy City applied for a credit line of 7 billion yuan (one for 3 years and one for 1 year) from the controlling shareholder COFCO twice during the year; Taiping Life also granted Joy City a credit line of 7.5 billion yuan with a term of 1, and the financing interest rate did not exceed the loan interest rate of financial institutions in the same period.

In terms of bills, Joy City successfully issued/kloc-0.5 billion yuan corporate bonds in June 2022; On September 16, the company again publicly issued corporate bonds with a total amount of no more than 5 billion yuan. In the first half of 2022, the average borrowing cost of Joy City was 4.84%, slightly lower than the 4.87% at the end of 20021.

On September 6, Leju Finance released the list of housing stock financing costs in the first half of 2022. * * * 1 1 The average financing cost of shares of domestic real estate enterprises is less than 4%, and the financing cost of Hong Kong stock subsidiary $ Joy City Real Estate (00207) is 3.9%, ranking tenth.

Compared with housing enterprises such as Poly, Jindi and Greenland, Joy City has a better turnover rate, and it is one of the few housing enterprises whose turnover rate has been continuously improved in the past five years. In the Report of 2022 Top Real Estate Enterprises in China 100 released by the Central Finger Research Institute, Joy City was rated as the top 10 in financing ability and the top 10 in robustness.

Third, Joy City also attaches importance to local economic development.

In addition to relying on the natural advantages of financing by central enterprises, Joy City rationally allocates light and heavy assets, and its cash flow has always remained stable. Although Joy City's current main income comes from the sale of commercial housing, the change of the company's property style is more worthy of attention.

I believe many investors have found that the more obvious the location advantage, the more complete the comprehensive facilities and the larger the scale, and the high-end businesses are easily favored by consumers.

Last year, Joy City began to export light asset commercial projects. 202 1, the four Joy City projects in Tianjin, Kunming, Anshan and Changsha realized the strategy of light assets. During the year, Joy City signed a new contract for Guangzhou Huangpu Joy Exchange and Chengdu Jinniu Joy City. Before the end of next year, the FTC financial center in Shenyang, the founder's hometown, will be the first commercial light asset project in Joy City.

This year, the Joy City commercial (shopping center) project is obviously different from the past:

(1) Highlight independent stores and do differentiated competition.

The E Hall of Shenyang Joy City is in the state of opening, and the signed brands such as Hetu, May 8th, american born chinese and Raw Materials Store were not available locally before. 10/65438+Shaoxing National Yuecheng, which opened on October 25th, has 45% brand awareness for the first time. Joy City Commercial focuses on introducing new brands this year, and conducts differentiated competition with projects in the same region.

(2) Focus on scene operation and create differentiated and dynamic neighborhood relations.

In addition to the surrounding facilities, Joy City commercial projects pay more attention to internal scene operation. Some Joy City that has been opened have different landscapes, such as exhibition halls, outdoor squares, cultural and creative theaters, creative spaces and Red Guan Ren, so consumers can relax while shopping. During the period of FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 in 2022, some Joy Cities also have joint theme activities of the World Cup.

(3) Enhance consumer stickiness and conversion rate.

During the year, Joy City adopted some marketing models, such as retail, food and beverage discount coupons and membership points products, to attract consumers to Joy City and complete the transformation of drainage, customer acquisition and precipitation.

Take Shenyang Joy City as an example. In summer, 69 yuan launched a number of activities to buy 100 yuan food and beverage vouchers, which were suitable for shopping malls 10 food and beverage stores, and played a role in stimulating residents' consumption and stimulating regional economy. The newly opened Joy City has a more affordable 50% discount coupon purchase activity.

Joy City integrates topics, brands, business districts and scenes through "Yue Purchase Voucher, Yue Live Broadcasting and Yue Fair", and the passenger flow, sales volume and new members of many Joy Cities across the country have reached new heights in a few years.

(4) There is still room for improvement in the occupancy rate of Joy City.

In the first half of this year, the average commercial occupancy rate of Joy City was 90.5% (93% for shopping centers and 90% for office buildings).

After Joy City adopted a new game, even under the influence of the epidemic, the opening rate of Shaoxing Guo Jin Joy City exceeded 90%.

In the first half of the year, affected by the property rent reduction policy of central enterprises, the rental income of Joy City decreased by 680 million yuan from June to June, and the net profit returned to the mother decreased by 256 million yuan. However, after this campaign, tenants will be more willing to choose the property of central enterprises/state-owned enterprises. With the "revival and upgrading" of Joy City in more areas, there is still room for further improvement in the commercial rental rate.

(5) Residential real estate remained stable.

In terms of residential real estate, Joy City acquired seven plots of land in the first half of the year, with a land area of 240,000 square meters and a building area of 4 1 10,000 square meters, with a total land price of 7.7 billion yuan and an average floor price of18,776 yuan/square meter.

By the end of June, the company's land reserves were mainly distributed in the core metropolitan areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu and Chongqing, and the saleable value of the land reserves was about 26,543,806.5 billion yuan.

In addition to the rent reduction, Joy City's profit decline this year was mainly due to inventory impairment. Recently, China has successively introduced policies such as supporting just-needed, tax refund, lowering the interest rate of the first provident fund, granting loans for affordable housing, and "real estate 16". It is expected that house prices in the first-and second-tier core areas of the country will not continue to fall. Joy City's land acquisition cost has dropped significantly in the past two years, and the inventory impairment is unsustainable.

Third, in the wave of industry integration that may be foreseen, central real estate companies such as Joy City are the vanguard.

The "Work Plan for Improving the Quality of Listed Companies Holding by Central Enterprises" requires that the construction of listed platforms should be promoted by classification, supported by absorption and merger, asset restructuring and cross-market operation, or withdrawn by means of free transfer and equity transfer, so as to further focus on the main business and advantageous areas.

165438+1October 28th, the CSRC stated that "the merger, acquisition, reorganization and supporting financing of listed companies involved in housing will be resumed from now on", and it was clear that the funds raised from the issuance of shares can be used for housing-related projects, payment of transaction consideration, replenishment of liquidity and repayment of debts. Can achieve the integration of "the same industry, upstream and downstream", and can not be used to take land and develop new real estate (referred to as "new five articles" of real estate). At the same time, the policy mentioned "ensuring the delivery of buildings and people's livelihood", shantytown renovation and old renovation. During the year, Joy City upgraded its "Yue Brand" with the core concept of "seeing the beauty of life" to meet the residents' yearning for a better life at different stages of life, which met the requirements of "promoting the construction of a complete community and a vibrant neighborhood" in the Action Plan for Further Improving the Quality of Products, Engineering and Services (2022-2025) jointly issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments. Central enterprises/state-owned real estate companies perform well in the field of people's livelihood and are expected to benefit from the "Five Articles of New China" to the greatest extent.

Judging from the stock price performance, although the three major indexes all fell during the year, and the real estate sector of Hong Kong stocks fell, the state-owned real estate company Poly and China Merchants Shekou (SZ00 1979)$ rose against the trend, and the state-owned real estate company Fahua also reached a record high.

COFCO is one of the first batch of 16 central enterprises recognized by SASAC, and has signed cooperation framework agreements with many governments. Joy City is the only real estate investment management platform under COFCO, and it is in an advantageous position in the foreseeable wave of industry integration.

At the same time, the CSRC said that the resumption of the main business of H-share real estate/refinancing of other housing-related H-shares will also be a big plus for Joy City Real Estate, a Hong Kong stock. Joy City has 27 shopping centers (including light assets and non-standardized products) in operation, with a total commercial area of about 3 million square meters. Including 16 Joy City, with a total commercial area of 2.39 million square meters and a single project area of about10.5 million square meters. Both the number and area of projects exceed Yuexiu REIT ... However, the current market value of Joy City Real Estate is less than half of Yuexiu REIT, and it is only a fraction of the REIT, so there is a lot of room for valuation repair.

Another detail that nobody has noticed is that a series of "1+N" indexes of central enterprises, such as "modern energy of central enterprises", "leading technology of central enterprises" and "return of shareholders of central enterprises", are being released one after another, which echoes "not copying overseas development experience" and "China characteristic valuation system".

Last weekend, the economic data of 1- 10 released by the Bureau of Statistics showed that among the four major types of enterprises, state-owned enterprises had the highest revenue growth rate and were the only enterprises with positive net profit growth year-on-year. Whether it is economic transformation or national system, it is inseparable from the continuous efforts of central enterprises/state-owned enterprises.

With the expansion of "1+N" central enterprise index and the expectation that more fund companies will issue central enterprise index products, the proportion of institutional shareholding in central enterprises will increase in the future, and high-quality companies in central enterprises such as Joy City will also indirectly benefit.