Since 1998, how many adjustments have been made to China real estate?

The development of China's real estate industry has experienced three stages: the state-led planning (construction and distribution) stage before 1978; Commercial development pilot stage 1978-1998

Segment; The financial development stage is from 65438 to 0998. After more than 30 years of real estate marketization, China's real estate industry has greatly improved the housing problem, consumption problem and urban appearance of China's huge population, and promoted

The development of nearly 60 industries has a great impact on China's economy. In the future, the real estate industry in China will develop towards urbanization, internationalization, intelligence, industrialization and financialization.

Under the influence of the situation, it will continue to play a decisive role in the development of China. ?

1949- 1978, real estate has not yet become an industry.

Before 1978, under the highly centralized planned economy system, real estate did not become an industry in China. The development plan and plan of "real estate" has never appeared in several "five-year" plans for national economic development.

At that time, urban housing was built by the state. After completion, urban residents will be allocated in kind according to different standards. Housing is one of the employee benefits of work units, and there is no real estate market. In rural areas, due to the dual management structure of urban and rural areas including land system, household registration system and welfare system, rural farmers' houses are mainly built on their own homesteads owned by collective land.

Before 1978, the number of cities in China was 50, and the improvement of urban appearance and urban environment (business) depended on the state-led urban construction planning, construction and operation, with few masters.

Real estate or ... Due to the lack of market factors, the city lacks sufficient development momentum and vitality. The improvement of urban residents' living environment mainly depends on family inheritance and housing distribution, and the living environment is poor and crowded.

Unbearable.

1978 per capita living area12m2.

1978- 1998 under the catalysis of the "market", the real estate industry in China was formed and developed rapidly.

From 65438 to 0978, China implemented the national development strategy of "reform and opening up". As an important link, real estate first entered the decision-making level, 198 1 year, and as important "reform and opening-up special zones" cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

Start the commercial housing development pilot. Starting from 1982, the central government began to promote the implementation of substantial housing reform. By the end of 199 1, the central government had adopted housing reform plans in 24 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities.

Keith. The marketization of real estate started.

From 65438 to 0993, the central government successively promulgated and implemented the housing accumulation fund system and issued housing bonds, which directly gave birth to the first round of real estate bubble for two consecutive years under the background of overheated macroeconomic environment. This round

Bubbles are characterized by oversupply, insufficient consumer demand, land speculation and imperfect financial systems in local markets (Hainan, Beihai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) with distinctive characteristics of the times. exist

Under the administrative intervention of the central government, such as stopping bank loans and clearing land, the bubbles in some markets such as Hainan, Beihai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were punctured.

1993- 1998, the total GDP of China is increasing by 8% every year on the basis of 20 trillion yuan. China's per capita GDP is around $65,438+0,000, ranking 200 in the world. Therefore, in

The consumption of urban residents in China still stays at the level of daily life such as food and clothing, and the real estate market is limited by insufficient consumption power. The annual completed area in China is only 5 million square meters, aiming at the urban population of 800 million,

Housing area 12 square meter, poor housing environment and huge potential gap.

During this period, the first batch of real estate development represented by Vanke was born in China, with a number of about 20,000. However, due to the shortage of its own funds and the restrictions of financial policies on private capital, the real estate market in this period was mainly state-owned assets. Such as Beijing Huayuan and Shanghai Cheng Kai.

1998-2003, the accumulation period of real estate development: canceling welfare housing allocation, mortgage consumption, land purchasing and storage, and loose monetary policy.

1998 is a crucial year for the real estate industry in China. Many developers failed in the first half of 1998, and they sold their land and withdrew from the market. But around June 1998, in Southeast Asia.

Under the influence of the financial crisis, China's economy made a hard landing, and its economic growth rate declined for eight consecutive quarters. In order to contain the danger of further decline, the central government is determined to cultivate new economic growth points. The real estate market has entered the decision-making level.

Wild, the policy began to change. At that time, the central government issued a series of policies to stimulate the development of real estate, the most representative of which was the abolition of welfare housing distribution and mortgage loans to buy a house, which was solved through market and personal credit.

Housing and housing consumption capacity are insufficient, and a series of policies have caused effective demand to erupt in a short time and rise sharply and rapidly.

In 2003, China implemented the land management policy of unified purchase, unified storage and unified transfer, and 1993 formed a fiscal and taxation management system in which local financial power and administrative power were separated. Local governments have limited financial power, but they must bear more.

More local power. Under this system, local governments pursue extra-budgetary revenue mainly from land transfer to make up for the shortage of local financial expenditure. In addition, urban construction based on real estate development,

Investment attraction, tax revenue and GDP are only the main indicators of official assessment under China's administrative system. In this way, real estate has become the main or only engine of local development. In the following ten years, "land finance" became more and more intense, with strong local color.

Industry is shrinking, and real estate has achieved unprecedented development with the support of local governments.

1998 after the southeast Asian financial crisis, in order to boost the depressed economy, China ended its prudent and tight monetary policy and entered a loose track. After China's entry into WTO, in order to stimulate exports, the monetary easing policy was extended.

Go on. Excessive currency has also become an important force to promote real estate. In the loose monetary policy environment, a large number of private real estate began to glow, and the situation that the real estate market was dominated by state-owned assets was reversed. ten thousand

A large number of private enterprises, such as Keke, Hesheng Chuangzhan and Sunco, achieved the first round of rapid development, and the number of real estate soared to about 80,000.

Of course, the development of real estate in this period can not be separated from the changes in the overall economic environment and consumption capacity of China. In 2002, China joined the WTO, China participated in the world economic division, and a large number of agricultural population entered cities and towns.

With the employment of industrial workers, a large number of college graduates and international students in cities, China's economic development has accelerated, and its GDP growth rate has entered a double-digit era. Under the premise of rapid economic development, the consumption structure of urban residents has changed.

In order to change, from the daily consumption of food, clothing, housing and transportation to the commodity consumption and emotional demand of tourism, cars began to enter ordinary citizens' families, and housing improvement was generally put on the family consumption agenda.

In this initial stage of the real estate market, the typical characteristics of the market are the transition from planned economy to market economy, the establishment of the fundamental driving force for market development, and the market transaction structure dominated by independent demand. Among them, the famous passage guided by public opinion is the story of the old lady's housing consumption concept in China and the United States, which is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and plays an indirect role in stimulating the consumption desire of urban residents.

2004-20 13, during the macro-control, the real estate market broke out and the derivative structure was poor.

From 1998 to 2003, various driving forces for the development of China real estate market were firmly established, and China real estate achieved unprecedented development in the following 10 year. Huge demand, consumer demand, politics

The government's promotion and cancellation of price controls have made the real estate industry develop like a runaway wild horse. Major cities in China have become "huge construction sites". Since 2004. China real estate has maintained 20% continuously.

Year-on-year growth, the price rose by 200%, and the annual completed area was 5 million square meters, which was 1.5 times of the total before 1998 and 1.2 times of the annual completed area of American real estate. At the same time, the premise is that

The housing problem of most urban residents in China has been solved, and the per capita living area of the city has increased from 12 square meters to 32 square meters. Real estate provides opportunities and models for the upgrading of China city. The number of cities ranges from

From 50 years in 1949 to 150 years, a large number of cities have been significantly improved, and market-led commercial real estate has flourished, with the per capita commercial area reaching 20 square meters in 20 12 years.

In the development cycle of 10 years, China has gradually formed a troika of consumption and export trade. Among them, exports and exports constitute the core of China's growth, and real estate is an important force. place

The "China model" refers to the development of the domestic real economy, which has solved the employment problem, increased the income of residents, brought huge foreign exchange reserves and taxes to the country, and then transformed into

Used for infrastructure and people's livelihood construction; The development of real economy, infrastructure construction and the improvement of people's income level have formed the demand for urbanization, which has promoted the rapid development of real estate and further promoted economic growth.

Very long. Therefore, it can be said that exports and real estate are three important forces in the driving force of "China's growth". Since 20 10, the real estate industry economy has accounted for more than 25% of GDP. Real estate has brought

All kinds of income generally account for more than 70% of local finance and are regarded as pillar industries. This series is the so-called real estate "kidnapping China economy" theory.

Although China real estate has achieved unprecedented development with the overall economy of China, it has also solved the accumulated housing problem. However, more problems have been exposed in the process of industry development. For example, the market dominated by consumption has become consumption and merger.

Heavy; The urbanization rate increased from 22% in 1978 to 5 1% in 20 12, but the farmers who contributed the vast majority of statistical caliber did not obtain property housing; Urban families are in debt because they buy houses.

High, a suite consumes the savings of three generations and bears heavy debts; The redistribution of social wealth represented by real estate leads to class differentiation and social injustice; Social problems related to real estate, such as demolition, disputes and groups.

Physical events are getting worse. There are voices questioning China's real estate development model, complaining that housing prices are too high, rising too fast, and various social contradictions appear, and the real estate industry has become the focus of social attention.

From 2004 to 20 13, under a series of social pressures, the central government began to implement regulation, mainly through supply-side land supply, demand-side housing supply, administrative market management and other means.

System. However, due to the failure to touch the fundamental driving force of real estate development (as mentioned above), the previous regulation ended in failure. In 2008, the financial crisis broke out in the United States and the global economy declined. In order to stimulate economic development, China introduced a wider.

Loose monetary policy directly promoted the rise of real estate prices. On the contrary, the real estate market broke out again and again because of administrative intervention in the market, and the price rose rapidly. As of 20 12, it is international.

As an indicator to measure the housing price level, the ratio of housing price to income in China's first tier cities is 25 times, which is higher than that in international cities such as new york and Tokyo. However, in second-and third-tier cities, a large number of houses are vacant. Therefore, all the previous real estate regulation and control were promoted by the central government, which formed a deformed real estate market and left a negative impression on the public.

At present, the China real estate market is characterized by unbalanced development. It is manifested in the imbalance between the coastal and inland markets, and the markets are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu) and the Pearl River Delta (Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhou).

Border cities), Bohai Rim region (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Liaolu, etc. ), the mainland and the central and western regions have a small market share; Urban and rural areas are unbalanced, and real estate mainly develops in cities; With the imbalance of customer groups, customers mainly get rich first.

The urban affluent class, which accounts for the vast majority of low-income people in the city, has not obtained housing; The quality of real estate products is unbalanced, the quality of ordinary houses is low, and high-grade houses are luxurious.

In this round of development cycle, the number of real estate in China has increased sharply with the increase of market scale, but with the further merger and integration of supervision, the industry concentration has increased rapidly. In 2005, before 100.

Strong only accounts for 1 1% of the market share, and by the end of 20 12, the top 50 real estate companies account for 2 1% of the market share, and the phenomenon of survival of the fittest caused by competition is obvious.

The trend since 20 13?

Set the direction, adjust the structure, and change.

At the end of 20 12, the new session of China established the development idea of "urbanization". China is trying to change the former real estate development mode with "land" as the core, and change to the development mode with "people" as the core. Zaijiu

Under the new model, urban residents attached to land have not shared the real fruits of economic development, and urban shanty towns are flooding; Rural residents' land and housing resources have not been fully developed; The household registration system hinders cities.

Free flow of labor force; Local positioning deviation, etc. Under the guidance of the new development model, the central government will carry out a series of reforms aimed at promoting the healthy development of the real estate market, rather than passive "regulation". Zaiwei

In the past few years, the real estate development dividend released by the reform may have the following aspects:

From the cultivation of world-class central cities to the real estate development needs of second-and third-tier cities and small towns brought about by the development of urban agglomerations.

2.

The upgrading of urban quality will bring about the transformation of shanty towns and old cities in nearly 100 cities and bring trillions of real estate development opportunities;

3.

A new round of land reform, urban land use mode, rural construction land, homestead property right confirmation and other opportunities for coordinated development of urban and suburban areas;

4.

The product upgrading of residential real estate, the development potential of commercial real estate, tourism real estate and pension real estate brought by economic development;

5.

The purpose is to adjust the real estate-based property tax-the property tax will be introduced soon, adjust the stock of real estate, squeeze the bubble and promote social equity;

6.

Due to the inward migration of coastal industries and the development of urban independent industries, the focus of real estate market development has shifted from coastal areas to central and western cities;

7.

The end of the household registration system and the urban-rural dual management system has brought a large demand for migrant workers to buy houses in cities, and urbanization has played a real role in promoting;

A series of real estate development trends will guide real estate to develop in a healthier direction, and make real estate change from leading to consumption-led, from short-term to medium-and long-term and from land-centered to product-oriented.

Centralized transformation, from incremental marketization to incremental and stock development, from general expansion to ups and downs, from general expansion to market segmentation. In short, real estate will become a "town" in China.

The engine of development strategy is the industrial model based on people's livelihood, not the paradise of home.

The direct reasons for the development of China's real estate market are: population factors (and family fission), traffic factors and technological upgrading. Due to the two rounds of baby boomers in the 1960s and 1980s, the demographic dividend will be greatly promoted.

China's economic development and real estate consumption. It can be predicted that China will soon reform and implement the family planning policy for 30 years and face a new round of birth peak, which will directly promote the economy and real estate of China in the future.

30 years of development. In addition, due to the current demographic changes, the aging rate is accelerating. By the end of 2020, the elderly population will account for 43% of the total population, the per capita GDP will increase and a large-scale elderly population will be born.

Tourism real estate and pension real estate developed rapidly. China made a major breakthrough in high-speed rail technology in 200 1, and quickly started the construction of the national high-speed rail network. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, 2000 kilometers of high-speed rail will be built in China.

, connecting 100 large and medium-sized towns. China's expressway network has also been basically completed, with a mileage of 5,000 kilometers. High-speed rail and expressway will greatly shorten the distance between cities and upgrade the space and consumption of real estate.

Provide possibilities. In the future, the extensive application of Internet technology and terrestrial carbon ecological building technology in real estate and property management will also make it possible to upgrade real estate products and services and improve the living environment. These are all porcelain houses.

The huge engine of future real estate development.

Therefore, no matter how the central government will promote the reform measures and implementation plans, China's real estate industry will surely develop further, but the result of development will be a more benign or abnormal choice. The quality of real estate development will mainly depend on whether China has the foresight and wisdom to reduce the weight and size up the situation, as well as the courage and execution of reform.