Will banks in Guangzhou and Shenzhen lower the mortgage interest rate and enter the market?

Recently, the mortgage interest rate in Shenzhen was lowered for the second time this month. The first set of minimum execution benchmark of several banks is 5%, and the second set of minimum execution benchmark interest rate is 10%.

Prior to this, in early March, some banks raised the minimum executable benchmark of the first home loan interest rate by 8%, and the minimum executable benchmark of the second set of interest rates by 12%.

At the same time, there are some signs of downward adjustment in Guangzhou's mortgage interest rate. At present, the minimum interest rate of bank mortgage in Guangzhou can rise by 3%. For example, the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation of Guangzhou, which deposits 500,000 yuan for 3 months, can enjoy a 3% increase in the benchmark interest rate. 200,000 deposits continued for three months, up by 3.5%. In addition, large banks have sufficient quotas and the speed of lending is getting faster and faster.

How long will the downward trend of mortgage interest rate in Shenzhen and Guangzhou last? Will it go back to the discount era? Is it a good time to enter the market for people who just need it? A number of bankers and real estate analysts told the Economic Observer that it is unlikely that the 20 19 mortgage interest rate will rise. As for whether it can return to 15% discount or 15% discount in the future, it is still not completely certain. However, with the change of the tone of real estate regulation and the possibility that the central bank may further reduce RRR, the mortgage may return to the benchmark interest rate.

Guangzhou-Shenzhen mortgage interest rate lowered

"In early February this year, in order to attract customers, Hangzhou Bank Shenzhen Branch raised the benchmark interest rate of the first home loan to 8%. At that time, the benchmark interest rate of the four major banks rose 10%. Since the beginning of March, we have adjusted the benchmark interest rate from 10% to 5%, and the second home loan interest rate has been lowered from 15% to the benchmark interest rate. The personal loan manager of a branch of CCB Shenzhen told the Economic Observer.

In addition to the Shenzhen area of CCB, the Economic Observer reporter learned from a number of banks in Shenzhen that the overall mortgage interest rate in Shenzhen showed signs of loosening, and the individual housing loan interest rates of major banks in Shenzhen were lowered around the beginning of March. Among them, the benchmark of the first home loan of the four major banks in Shenzhen was adjusted from 10% to 5%, and the interest rate of the second home loan was lowered from 15% to 10%. The first set of minimum benchmark interest rates for Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank is 5%, and the second set is 1 1%- 15%. In addition, according to Rong 360 data monitoring, China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, China CITIC Bank, China Guangfa Bank, Industrial Bank and other banks have also made the same adjustments since last week. In fact, some banks in Shenzhen have lowered the mortgage interest rate for the second time this month. For example, in early March, Guangfa Bank and China CITIC Bank raised the first set of minimum benchmark interest rates to 8%, and the second set of minimum benchmark interest rates to 12%.

The loan is 1 10,000 yuan, with a term of 20 years. The interest rate is 10%, the monthly repayment is 68 16.89 yuan, and the accumulated interest is about 636 10/0,000 yuan. Now, after adjusting the floating interest rate to 5%, the monthly repayment is 6677 14 yuan, and the total interest paid in 20 years is about 602,500 yuan; This also means that at the beginning of this year, the first house loan was 6,543.8+0,000 yuan, which was 654.38+0.39 yuan less than that at the beginning of last year. 75 yuan paid back 33,600 yuan in interest in 20 years.

While the mortgage interest rate in Shenzhen was lowered, it was also reported that the mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou was loose. However, the reporter of Economic Observer visited the outlets of major banks in Guangzhou and found that the mortgage interest rates of major banks in Guangzhou generally implemented the first benchmark floating 10% and the second benchmark floating 10- 15%. In particular, relevant persons from the branches of the four major banks told reporters that the interest rate remained at the original level and no relevant adjustment policies were received.

However, some stock banks and foreign banks give preferential policies on the interest rate of the first suite. Bankers believe that the current quota is relatively loose and they want to win more customers. "VIP and above customers have 500,000 deposits, and we can apply for the benchmark interest rate to rise by 8%, and the unqualified ones will rise by 10%. This preferential policy was only issued two weeks ago, and it has already increased by 10%- 15%. " A personal loan manager of a branch of CITIC Bank in Guangzhou told the Economic Observer. The interest rate of the first home loan of Guangfa Bank can also rise by 5%, but customers need to buy critical illness insurance products with a loan amount of six thousandths. Compared with the first two, China Merchants Bank offers greater benefits. From the end of 20 18, customers in Guangzhou can apply for the first home loan, and there is no problem with credit information, and they can unconditionally achieve 8%.

According to the monitoring of Ke Rui Guangzhou, a real estate big data application service provider, four banks, namely Bank of China, Ping An, CITIC and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, are still floating above 20%, and the remaining floating ranges are mainly floating at 15%. In addition to the decline in loan interest rates, the speed of lending is getting faster and faster. Personal loan managers of several bank branches in Guangzhou told the Economic Observer that compared with before the Spring Festival, the speed of lending has accelerated. If the information is complete, it will be approved in about three days. If the personal transfer is fast, the bank will generally lend money within one week after getting the new real estate license, at the earliest three or four days. "In fact, there is a downward trend from the end of 20 18 to now. 20 18 up to now, the market liquidity is looser than before, and banks lend more than before. " Xiao, chief analyst of Kerry Guangzhou, observed that the government's attitude towards real estate changed on 20 19. The keynote of real estate regulation in the previous two years was "don't speculate on houses, and curb the rise in house prices". From 20 19 to "stable land price, stable house price and stable expectation", the center of the whole market regulation is stability. Xiao said that Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other regions have made some policy adjustments to the real estate market, including partial relaxation. In fact, commercial banks will also feel some changes in the market and relax under the policy tilt.

There is more water in the pool.

"Once upon a time, the first home loan in Shenzhen could be discounted. I witnessed that the benchmark interest rate dropped by 15% compared with three years ago, to 15%, and then to 10% in the second half of last year. I also bought a house with a high loan last year. " The above-mentioned personal loan manager of a branch of CCB Shenzhen told the reporter.

20 15 Shenzhen implemented the new second-home policy, and the down payment of many banks was reduced from 70% to 40%. At the same time, they further adjusted the loan interest rate of the first suite, and many mortgage interest rates dropped to 88%. Some big banks have also introduced preferential interest rates as low as 15%, setting a record low for the first home loan interest rate. This kind of preferential strength lasts until 20 17, and a 10% discount is generally implemented. With the increase of 20 17 capital cost, this kind of preferential mortgage interest rate has become history. Some banks in Shenzhen have raised the interest rate of the first home loan from 10% to 9.5%. After the May Day holiday, some banks in Shenzhen implemented the first home loan interest rate 1. 1 times. 20 18 the government adheres to real estate policies such as "housing and not speculating" and strictly implements "price limit". At the same time, the effect of financial "deleveraging" has gradually emerged in the real estate industry. The interest rates of the first suite of the four major state-owned banks and some stock banks in Shenzhen mortgage market have all risen by 15%, and the second suite has risen by 20%.

The mortgage interest rate in Guangzhou has also experienced many "jumps" in the past three or four years. At the beginning of 20 16, the interest rate of the first home loan in Guangzhou was 15% off, and the lowest was 15% off. Two years later, four state-owned banks in Guangzhou simultaneously raised the interest rate of the first home loan 10% and the interest rate of the second home loan 15%.

A number of bankers and real estate analysts told the Economic Observer that it is unlikely that the 20 19 mortgage interest rate will rise. As for whether we can return to the 15% discount or 15% discount in the future, we are not completely sure, but we are likely to return to the benchmark interest rate.

Xiao Wen believes that there is still room for downward adjustment this year. In his view, the task of steady economic growth this year is very heavy, and it emphasizes moderation. At the local government level, the contribution of real estate to the economy is relatively high, and the "policy for the city" will still be relaxed. Although real estate has always been a strictly controlled industry, as long as the water injected into the pool becomes larger, it can still flow to related industries. He predicted that RRR will be further reduced this year, which will provide more favorable space for more reasonable housing demand.

Cao Kaihong, director of Midland realty transaction management, told the Economic Observer that in the past, the interest rate was too high and the pressure on mortgage payment was too great. Now the downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate is also a response to the policy of "the house is for living". The market has settled for so long that all the water has been squeezed out. Now is a good buying period for those who just need it. "With the release of the Greater Bay Area Outline, the heat in the Bay Area has increased compared with the previous year. Some properties cancelled some preferential policies. For those who just need it, house prices are more critical. It is impossible to wait for preferential interest rates without buying a house. Interest rates are auxiliary, as long as they are not too high, they will not have much impact on their decisions. " George W. Xiao Wen told the Economic Observer.