Will a city in the future break the current ranking of Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen?

Will there be a city in the future that will break the ranking of Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen? The answer is obvious: yes.

Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen are now the four first-tier cities in Chinese mainland, and they are also well-known internationally. However, since there are rankings, there are competitors, and the championship throne is never fixed.

In fact, about 10 years ago, there were only three first-tier cities in Chinese mainland. At that time, Shenzhen and Suzhou had been fighting for the fourth city in China, and it was obvious that Shenzhen won later. Later, Shenzhen's GDP not only surpassed Guangzhou, but even surpassed Hong Kong, which is well-known internationally.

Time goes back to 20 years ago. At that time, the four first-tier cities were actually Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Tianjin. The backwardness of Tianjin began 10 years ago. So the ranking will never be static, but the time span may be longer.

If GDP is the only theory, the order of Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen should be: Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Now, the statement of going north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is smooth, and secondly, it is also the embodiment of comprehensive strength. Shenzhen is still at the end, that is, it lost in comprehensive strength.

The rankings of the four front lines will also undergo internal changes. I think it will probably become Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou in 20 years. In 20 years' time, Shanghai will become a first-tier city in the world and a global head city on par with new york and Tokyo. New york is still thriving, Tokyo is declining, and Shanghai has never stopped.

Shenzhen's comprehensive strength will gradually improve, and it is expected to replace London and Hong Kong and become a new financial city with global influence within 20 years.

After 20 years, Xiong 'an has become a big city, and many central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises in Beijing may move to Xiong 'an. Beijing's economic aggregate will decrease accordingly, but its comprehensive strength can still rank third.

Then, will other cities challenge the status of the fourth Guangzhou in the future? The answer is, of course, yes.

Within 20 years, the cities that really have the strength to challenge Guangzhou's position as the fourth city are: Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Wuhan and Xiong 'an.

Based on 20 years, this challenge may succeed or fail. But in any case, these six cities will become new first-tier cities. Yes, in 20 years, China should have 10 first-tier cities, namely: Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan and Xiong 'an!

Wait and see!

Hangzhou is most likely to break this ranking and replace Guangzhou's economic status.

The long-term domination of TOP4 by the North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen mainly refers to economic development. Personally, I feel that there is still great hope that Hangzhou will surpass Guangzhou in the next 20 years. Even now, some areas of Hangzhou have surpassed Guangzhou.

1, strength of listed companies

The strength of listed companies can best reflect the achievements of local economic development. Well-known listed companies in Hangzhou are no worse than those in Guangzhou. Judging from A-share listed companies, the market value of leading A-share listed companies in Hangzhou is higher than that in Guangzhou. In addition, A-share listed companies in Hangzhou include leading technology companies such as Hikvision, Dahua, Tiger Pharmaceutical and Hang Seng Electronics, while there are fewer listed companies in Guangzhou, and the top three are not technology companies.

If we compare overseas listed companies, the differences between them are even greater. An Alibaba in Hangzhou is basically equivalent to the sum of the market value of overseas listed companies in Guangzhou.

2, the income of ordinary people, if we look at the per capita disposable income in 2020, Hangzhou is only slightly lower than Guangzhou, and the two are very close.

Judging from the personal income tax paid by the city and the monthly salary ranking of Zhaopin, Hangzhou has already surpassed Guangzhou.

Therefore, just looking at the economy, Hangzhou has been narrowing the gap with Guangzhou. Of course, it is still too early to talk about transcendence.

I think the top five cities, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Chongqing, will hardly change in 20 years, for the following reasons!

1. From the total GDP, there is still a gap of more than 500 billion between Suzhou and Chongqing. If the gap is reduced by 2% every year, it will take at least 30 years! It will take 30-40 years for Chengdu to narrow the gap of 5% from Chongqing every year!

2. In terms of political importance, Suzhou lost without competition at all, which, to a certain extent, determined Suzhou's later resource investment. To a certain extent, I admire Suzhou. It is very rare for a city that is neither a provincial capital city nor a sub-provincial city, nor an ordinary city in the SAR, to develop into a national 10 top city! There is also the development model of Chengdu, I am not very optimistic, one Chengdu pulls a crotch and one Sichuan! This development is based on blood-sucking, and the stamina is insufficient!

To sum up, I personally think that Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Guangzhou and Chongqing, the top five cities in the future, will not change much, and Beijing will be surpassed by Guangzhou in five years because of its national positioning. But it is impossible to quit the top five!