Can PTA industry boom cycle continue in the future?

Since 20 17, PTA industry has entered a bull market cycle and has maintained a good momentum so far. In addition, it is worth mentioning that pta has recently started a new wave of rising prices. Then the question is, can the boom cycle of pta industry continue in the future?

At the end of June, the reporter visited the upstream and downstream of pta industry chain in Zhejiang Province and learned that pta inventory is tight at present, and the market is likely to be in a tight balance in the third quarter. Judging from the overall situation of the current industrial chain, most polyester enterprises are optimistic about the market outlook, the inventory of downstream manufacturers is generally low, and the profitability of the industrial chain has reached a high point in recent years. In the eyes of the industry, the current pta boom cycle is still halfway up the mountain.

The business cycle continues until the industry knows that the tight balance between supply and demand "supports" the pta market.

From turning losses into profits last year to continuing profits this year, pta industry has ushered in a long-lost boom cycle. There are many large polyester enterprises in Zhejiang. Recently, the reporter of Futures Daily followed the Zhejiang pta industry delegation in the second quarter of 20 18, and visited large pta production enterprises, polyester enterprises and a number of small and medium-sized chemical fiber enterprises in Zhejiang. When investigating the production and operation of pta market and the inventory, sales and orders of downstream enterprises, the reporter found that the surveyed enterprises were basically optimistic about the future trend of the industry.

During the discussion of Rong Sheng Petrochemical Company, which integrates polyester, spinning, pta-PX and future refining, Shou Baichun, general manager of Rong Sheng International Trade Co., Ltd., introduced that the current polyester production capacity of the company headquarters is 6.5438+0.3 million tons, the total polyester production capacity of Shaoxing Film Company is about 6.5438+0.3 million tons, and the pta production capacity of Yisheng Petrochemical Company is 6.5438+0.35 million tons.

Xinfengming Group, another large chemical fiber enterprise under investigation, mainly produces polyester filaments. It is estimated that the total filament production capacity will reach 3.6 million tons by the end of 20 18. In addition, in 20 19, Xinfengming Group has two sets of filament production capacity of100000 tons, which is planned to be put into production in the second half of the year. By then, the polyester production capacity of Xinfengming Group will reach 4.6 million to 4.7 million tons. Regarding the progress of pta projects that have attracted much attention from the market, Yang Jianfei, vice president of Xinfengming Group, introduced that the company has planned to build two sets of pta projects with 2.2 million tons each in Pinghu. At present, the first phase of the project is already under construction, and it is planned to be put into production at the end of the third quarter of 20 19, and the second phase is being declared. It is planned that the pta production capacity will reach 4.4-5 million tons in 2020.

Hu Axiang (China) High Fiber Co., Ltd. specializes in producing differential fibers. At present, the polyester production capacity is 400,000 tons. Wei Zugui, deputy general manager of the company, said that the company has no plans to build new pta projects in the future, but there are plans to further expand polyester production capacity. The second phase plans to expand the polyester production capacity by 850,000 tons, and the expected production time is around 2020.

Analyzing the data obtained from various research enterprises, the analysts of the research group generally believe that the basis and logic behind the judgment of the whole industrial boom cycle is actually the change of supply and demand pattern. Xu Lin, a senior researcher at Cinda Futures, said that the new capacity of pta in 20 18 is not much, and the new capacity in 20 19 may not be put in place until the fourth quarter, while the supply will be released in 2020, so it is foreseeable that the supply side will be tight in 20 19.

From the demand side of polyester, the polyester production capacity began to reach a new peak in the second half of 20 16. The production capacity of 20 18 polyester is maintained in a large quantity, and 20 19 is at least about 3.5 million tons. Therefore, the demand for pta is increasing. "In the next two years, pta is likely to be in the upward cycle," he said.

In addition, Xu Lin also mentioned that from the upstream situation, the peak of domestic PX production is from the end of 20 18 to 20 19, and the substantial increase of domestic production will depress the price of PX in South Korea and Japan, including Taiwan Province Province of China, and even restrict its import. The profit at the PX end will turn to pta, which is also the supporting factor for the relative determination of pta price in the later period.

According to Shou Baichun, Rong Sheng Petrochemical has not expanded the industrial chain of polyester spinning in recent two years, mainly focusing on the expansion of upstream oil refining. The aromatics production capacity of CICC Petrochemical, which was put into operation on 20 15, is 2 million tons, including PX production capacity10.6 million tons, and the aromatics production capacity of CICC Phase II is 2 million tons, which is initially expected to be put into operation in 2020. In addition, the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 40 million-ton large-scale refining and chemical project will be put into production at the end of 20 18, the second phase will be started in the middle of 20 19, and the second phase will be officially put into production in 2020. By then, the PX production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to reach 8 million tons in 2020.

Different from other chemicals, pta industry has high transparency of market information and many channels to obtain industry data. Therefore, the cognition of market situation and industry situation will tend to be consistent.

Wang Guangqian, a senior analyst of Soochow Futures, also agrees that pta industry is welcoming the boom cycle, and thinks that the market is in the middle of the boom cycle. "From the perspective of supply and demand, the market in the third quarter is more optimistic. There was no problem on the demand side before September. From the survey and visit to the enterprise, it was obviously better than the expectation of polyester demand at the beginning of the market. " He said that before September, the probability of pta is still the cycle of destocking, and the inventory of pta is also at a relatively low level. In addition, the off-season from July to August is not weak, and the demand for "Golden September and Silver 10" will have a peak season, but there is no obvious increase from the supply end to 1 1.

B Multi-factor superposition The uncertain factors that will affect pta price in the future still exist.

After understanding the inventory situation of pta enterprises, the investigation team generally believes that the key point of pta market situation at present is low inventory, but it should be noted that other uncertain factors affecting the market in the future also exist.

When talking about the company's pta and finished goods inventory and its later environmental impact, the relevant person in charge of Zhejiang Huaxin Group said that compared with the inventory level of last year's highest hour 10 day, the current pta raw material inventory is 3-4 days. "Since June, the sales of end products have weakened, but the overall order volume is acceptable. Due to the negative impact of strict environmental protection on the traditional weaving printing and dyeing process, the impact of colored yarn products is not great, and there may even be a substitute demand for colored yarn in the application field of traditional white yarn. It is expected that there will be limited room for falling back in the off-season from July to August this year. " He predicted that this year will be the best year for the company to start work and make profits.

Shou Bochun said that Rong Sheng Petrochemical's polyester inventory level is higher than the industry average, and enterprises have their own pace of production and sales, and will not focus on price reduction and clearance to disturb the market order in a certain period of time. The current inventory is 16- 18 days. "The inventory structure of polyester finished products is mostly woolen products in the peak demand season in the second half of the year. At present, the law of textile off-season is not as obvious as before. With the gradual release of terminal demand in the second half of the year, there is not much room for polyester finished product inventory to continue to accumulate. " He said.

In addition, the continuous upward movement of pta processing fee center has also been mentioned by many surveyed enterprises. "The processing fee level of pta industry this year is better than last year. It is expected that the processing fee level of PTA 700-800 yuan/ton can be maintained in the second half of the year, and there will be no major macro and systemic risk impact. " A person in charge of a polyester company told the Futures Daily reporter.

According to the person in charge, in previous years, market funds will keep a close eye on pta processing fee operation, forming a set of fixed operation ideas. That is, short when the processing cost exceeds 700 yuan/ton, and long when the processing cost is low. "In the past two years, the polyester industry has entered a boom cycle, and pta processing profits have also increased simultaneously. Especially after the price of acetic acid and catalyst rose sharply, the poor processing of pta with 800 yuan/ton or above became the norm, which was recognized by funds outside the industry. Therefore, the original idea of pta processing fees has withdrawn from the market. " He said.

Pang, a senior analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures, believes that apart from the overhaul of several major production facilities, whether the operating rate of the polyester industry can maintain the current level is also worthy of attention. The impact of the decrease in operating rate on the decrease in demand will be very obvious. "The rise of crude oil has also made a great contribution to the strength of pta. In addition, the price elasticity of pta is not great, which is related to the relatively high contract goods of pta. If the contracted goods are reduced later, the trade atmosphere will be stronger and the price fluctuation may be greater. " She said.

The person in charge of Yisheng Petrochemical Company said that in recent years, the settlement price of pta contract goods is basically the average spot price, and the future contract goods signing mode is still under consideration, but it should reduce the proportion of contract goods. "On the one hand, after the proportion of contract goods increased, the enthusiasm of downstream polyester enterprises for stocking decreased. Regardless of whether the spot supply is tight or loose, the price elasticity of PTA is weaker than MEG and polyester products. " On the other hand, he said, the proportion of contract goods is too high, and the spot market has less negotiable spot, which leads to the loss of the function of the reservoir in the trade link, leading to the inelastic price of pta, narrowing the fluctuation and obviously decreasing the activity. Therefore, under the condition that the 20 19 market is still in a tight balance, appropriately reducing the proportion of pta contract goods can give full play to the market pricing function and the price fluctuation can better reflect the real supply and demand situation.

The gradual rise of industrial concentration is also a trend of pta industry at present. It can be predicted that the future industry will be an orderly oligopoly market competition. Li Xuechang, general manager of the sales department of Xinfengming Group, said that polyester is a cyclical industry, but after so many years of development, the polyester industry has developed from disorderly competition to orderly competition. "At present, the production capacity growth is basically concentrated in several big factories such as Xinfengming, Tongkun, Hengyi, Rong Sheng and Hong Sheng. With the increasing concentration of industries, industrial barriers have begun to form. It is difficult for peripheral funds to enter the polyester industry again, and the launch of new production capacity is also conducive to eliminating some backward production capacity. " He said that in addition, the environmental pressure in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces from 20 16 to 20 17 led to the transfer of some water-jet looms to northern Jiangsu, Anhui and other regions, and this part of production capacity is likely to be released in the third quarter of this year, which will increase the marginal demand for polyester, which is good for the polyester market from the second half of this year to next year. "There will definitely be cyclical fluctuations in the future, but the gap between peaks and valleys will not be as big as in previous rounds."

Domestic sales and exports are also influencing factors of downstream demand boom. With the improvement of the national economic environment, the demand of residents has increased, and the export of polyester industry has also performed well. According to reports, at present, the production capacity of multi-color silk products of Zhejiang Huaxin Group has reached 400,000 tons, and the operating rate has improved to some extent compared with last year. It is estimated that this year's export volume will double that of last year, reaching 40 million US dollars.

This year, the export situation of bottle tablets is relatively optimistic. Zheng Yang, Minister of Foreign Trade Department of Zhejiang Wan Kai New Materials Co., Ltd., said that at present, the global bottle chip production capacity is 30 million tons, and China accounts for about 28%. On the surface, it is a foreign merger and acquisition; G, JBF, these giants' long-term parking caused up to 2.5 million tons of equipment failure, which is actually the inevitable result of vicious competition in the whole industry in the past five years. The profit of the industry quickly changed from the previous loss to profit. The profit of domestic trade orders can reach more than 2000 yuan/ton, and the export profit is about 1500 yuan/ton. Profit is the best level in 10 years.

"In 20 17, the export growth rate of bottle chips in China was about 10%, and this year the export growth rate may reach 15%-20%, and the total amount is expected to be 2.5-2.6 million tons." He introduced that about 40% of the company's current output is used for export, mainly for Asia, Africa and Latin America. By the end of June this year, it had exported 250,000 tons, compared with 6.5438+0.5 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of order cycle, foreign trade lasts 30-60 days. In recent years, due to the increase of export volume, the characteristics of bottle chips in off-season are not as obvious as before.

Liu Jian, a senior researcher at Xinhu Futures, believes that this year's exports should pay attention to the foreign exchange market. "Brazil, Argentina, Turkey and some other countries in Southeast Asia, this year's currency depreciation is very severe, leading to a decline in the international purchasing power of these countries. The incremental contribution of China's exports is mainly in Southeast Asia, India and Africa. The decline in purchasing power in emerging markets this year may be bad for exports. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether the polyester peripheral market can have the same performance as the bottle market. " He said.

C the enthusiasm for participating in the futures market is constantly improving.

Based on the confidence in the continuation of the industry boom cycle, upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry have shown their magical powers in business development.

Judging from the situation reflected by the surveyed enterprises, a large number of upstream manufacturers in pta industry will be put into production in 2020-202 1 year, and the trade structure of PTA industry may change greatly. When talking about the impact of a large number of aromatic hydrocarbon projects put into operation by private large-scale refining and chemical companies on the entire industrial chain, Shou Bochun said that from the general trend, the process of transformation and upgrading of the entire aromatic hydrocarbon industrial chain is inevitable.

It is worth noting that pta industrial enterprises have increasingly realized the importance of using the futures market to avoid risks, and their enthusiasm for participating in futures is also constantly improving. The relevant person in charge of Hengyi Petrochemical, a large chemical fiber enterprise visited by the survey, said that the enterprise has been actively participating in the futures market, and its trading company has actively participated in polyester hedging by relying on raw materials to cooperate with futures trading.

Not only actively participate, but also the way enterprises use the futures market is more flexible. As a pta manufacturer, the operation mode of Yisheng Petrochemical in PTA futures is constantly updated. According to the relevant person in charge of the company, the company actively participates in futures trading, but mainly focuses on hedging positions, with the goal of reducing the risk of business operation and sales. "Last year, we reduced the hedging ratio according to market conditions and appropriately increased the hedging space according to the increase in processing fees." He said that in the future, the company's hedging will be more combined with the market situation, and the hedging strategy will be decided based on the judgment of the future market and the calculation of the actual cost. Generally, the amount of hedging will be reduced in good times, and the amount of hedging will be appropriately increased in bad times.