Seek the climate change in Dongguan in recent ten years.

Under the background of global warming, the local climate in Dongguan has quietly changed in the process of rapid development. The analysis of meteorological data in the past 5 years shows that the climate in Dongguan has shown a trend of increasing temperature, decreasing humidity, decreasing sunshine and decreasing visibility, which has led to frequent extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy rain, strong thunderstorm, high temperature and haze, and "autumn tiger" and warm winter weather have become more and more obvious. Typhoon Du Fu in 23 killed 3 people and injured 3 others in our city. The continuous rainstorm process from July 14 to 17, 26 caused economic losses of more than 1 billion yuan. Climate change has quietly changed the natural ecosystem in Dongguan, affecting the public safety, people's health and social and economic development in our city. It is necessary to attach great importance to this and take comprehensive measures to slow down and adapt to the impact of climate change.

Characteristics of climate change in Dongguan

With the rapid development of social economy and the rapid expansion of city scale in Dongguan, the surface properties of Dongguan have changed. A large number of cement and asphalt pavements, as well as various building walls, have effectively absorbed a lot of solar radiation, and the surface water content has also decreased. With the increase of population, factories and vehicles in Dongguan, the burning of various fuels is increasing, and there are more and more dust in the air, which is also very beneficial to absorb the energy of thermal radiation in the environment. The urban heat island effect in Dongguan has been shown, which is mainly as follows:

1. Average temperature rise

From the curve of average temperature change over the years, it can be seen that before the 198s, the annual average temperature in Dongguan changed slowly, but after the 198s, the temperature showed an obvious upward trend, and it has been warmer for 18 consecutive years, especially since the 199s. Since the historical record began in 1957, among the 2 years with the highest annual average temperature, 19 years appeared after 1987. The average temperature in 22 was as high as 23.6℃, the highest in history.

2. Decrease of relative humidity

The average relative humidity decreased from 76.5% in 1959-1985 to 73.6% in 1986-26, with a decrease of 2.9 percentage points, and the largest decline occurred after the mid-198s. The maximum annual average relative humidity was 8%, which appeared in 1959, and the minimum was 71%, which appeared in 1995.

3. sunshine hours decreased

the average annual sunshine hours decreased from 2161 hours in 1963-1969 to 191 hours in 1985-26, a decrease of 251 hours. The maximum annual sunshine hours was 232.8 hours, which appeared in 1963, and the minimum was 1558.1 hours, which appeared in 1997.

4. Decline in visibility

From the curve of average visibility over the years, it can be seen that the visibility was almost above 18 kilometers before the 198s, but after the 198s, the visibility declined rapidly, and the average visibility in 26 dropped to 9.3 kilometers, the lowest in the past years.

the impact of climate change on dongguan

1. the extreme abnormal weather has increased

under the background of global warming, the extreme abnormal weather in dongguan has increased. Dongguan has experienced warm winters for 2 consecutive years, and the high temperature (above 35℃) weather has also increased significantly, and the phenomenon of "autumn tiger" is obvious. The increase of heavy precipitation and thunderstorm has caused more and more social and economic losses. Haze is becoming more and more serious, and visibility is reduced.

1.1 There has been a warm winter in Dongguan for 2 consecutive years

From the curve of the average temperature change in winter (December-February) over the years, it can be seen that before the mid-198s, the temperature in winter changed gently, and after the mid-198s, the temperature in winter showed an obvious upward trend, and the city has had a warm winter for 2 consecutive years.

In addition to warm winters, the high temperature (above 35℃) weather in our city has also increased significantly. It can be seen from the change curve of high-temperature days over the years that before the mid-198s, the number of high-temperature days per year was generally less than 1 days. Since the mid-198s, the number of high-temperature days has increased sharply, and there are 16 years in which the number of high-temperature days is more than 1 days, all of which occurred after 1986.

the phenomenon of "autumn tiger" in our city is becoming more and more obvious. Since the 198s, the average temperature in October-November (autumn) has been increasing year by year. In one year, the average temperature exceeded 23℃ in nine years, all after 199.

1.2. The social and economic losses caused by the increase of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are increasing

The data analysis in recent years shows that the increase of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in Dongguan has caused increasing social and economic losses. On May 25, 25, there was a local heavy rain in Guancheng area, with an hourly rainfall of 19.3 mm from 3: to 4: , which set a new record for the hourly rainfall since the meteorological record in Dongguan, causing serious waterlogging in some places. On July 14 ~ 17, 26, a continuous rainstorm occurred in our city. The maximum daily rainfall recorded by Shilong automatic weather station reached 399.6 mm, which was the second highest since the historical record. The rainstorm caused economic losses of more than 1 billion yuan, and the Hanxi River was seriously waterlogged. The increase of high temperature weather leads to the increase of thunderstorm intensity and frequent occurrence of severe thunderstorm events, which causes some buildings and electronic equipment to be struck by lightning, causing great economic losses, and people are killed by lightning every year.

On May 21-22, 26, a truck was flooded in the tunnel in front of Liaobu Square, only the roof was exposed.

1.3. The haze phenomenon became more and more serious

With the expansion of Dongguan city, the industry developed rapidly, the population and cars increased, the urban pollution further intensified, and the number of haze days also increased significantly.

In the 33 years from p>1957 to 1989, there were only 12 days of haze, while in the 199s, the number of haze days had reached 25 days. After entering 23, the number of haze days increased sharply, reaching 121 days in 23, and then the number of haze days in 26 has been more than 12 days, reaching the maximum of 192 days. With the increasingly serious haze phenomenon, the visibility of our city has been declining year by year. By 26, the average visibility was only 9.3 kilometers, the lowest in history.

2. The factors affecting the weather and climate are more complicated

The factors affecting the weather and climate are very complicated, which are caused by the interaction of various factors in the integrated system of atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere. Because human activities emit a lot of greenhouse gases, the factors affecting weather and climate are more complicated, and abnormal weather disasters occur frequently. Take the weather and climate in Dongguan in recent years as an example: continuous drought in autumn, winter and spring occurred in 24-25, which is rare in recent years; In 26, the rainfall reached 2412.4 mm, which was the most rainy year on record. In the first half of September 26, there were four heavy rains in our city, including three heavy rains, with a total rainfall of 56.6 mm, the largest in the same period in history; In November 26, the number of thunderstorm days reached as many as four days, which was the largest in the same period in history. The prediction of these small probability events is a difficult point in current scientific theory and technology.

3. Impact of climate change on social economy

The impact of climate change is gradual, but irreversible. Although it is not as direct as the harm caused by a disastrous weather process, it brings unbearable and lasting serious impact on natural ecosystems and social economy. At present, the climate monitoring system in our city is under construction, and the research on the interaction between climate change and various industries needs to be strengthened. From the monitoring data at home and abroad and the evaluation and analysis of our existing data, it has been preliminarily shown that climate warming causes sea level rise, climate zone moves northward, species distribution changes, pests and diseases increase, and new viruses are constantly produced, etc. At the same time, climate warming also causes frequent disasters, increased droughts and floods, intensified cold and warm weather, and worse weather, which directly affects social security, human health and economic development, including transportation, environment, health, energy and water resources.

3.1. Impact on traffic

Traffic is affected by meteorological conditions such as rainstorm, thunderstorm, gale, haze, fog and high temperature. If the rainstorm makes the ground slip and accumulate water, it will cross the subgrade, resulting in low visibility and easy to cause traffic accidents. According to British statistics, there are 25% more traffic accidents in rainy and snowy weather than in sunny days. Of the 6.8 million traffic accidents in the United States every year, 2% occur in bad weather conditions such as rain, snow or ice and snow. The high temperature in summer causes the road surface temperature to rise, and it is also easy to cause motor vehicle tire puncture, which leads to the accident of car crash and death. Heavy fog affects the visual range and is also easy to cause traffic accidents. Take Dongguan as an example. From July 14 to 17, 26, there was a continuous rainstorm in our city, and the eastern expressway was flooded, which led to traffic disruption. Especially with the length, density, vehicle growth rate and quantity of high-grade roads in our city have jumped to the forefront of the province, traffic meteorological safety has become an increasingly important work.

3.2. Impact on environmental health

Climate warming intensifies the spread of infectious diseases by insects, and the incidence of malignant infectious diseases such as malaria, scarlet fever, jaundice and encephalitis increases. The most important thing is that climate change will inevitably lead to the extinction of some old species, and at the same time, it will inevitably produce new species. The change of species may break the existing pattern of viruses, bacteria, parasites and allergens, produce new varieties, and bring another danger that a new virus may be activated. A research report of the World Health Organization confirms that at least 3 new infectious diseases have appeared in the past 2 years. In the process of human activities, new viruses will be discovered continuously in the future, posing a serious threat to human health. The outbreak of SARS virus in 23 is the best example.

With the increase of haze weather, harmful particles in the air also increase, which can directly or induce respiratory diseases, gastrointestinal diseases and breed various viruses and bacteria. The decrease of sunshine increases rickets, which has a direct impact on people's health.

3.3. Impact on energy and water resources

Climate warming leads to an increase in extreme abnormal weather such as high temperature, drought, strong wind and rainstorm, which further increases the energy consumption required by social and economic development and residents' life, and the contradiction between power supply, oil supply and water supply is more prominent.

In recent years, with the rapid development of social economy, the annual electricity consumption of Dongguan has been ranked first in Guangdong Province, and the power supply form is very tight. According to the survey, the peak of electricity consumption in our city generally appears in June, July and August, and the electricity consumption is the least in February. Generally, our city began to be controlled by the subtropical high in late June, and the high temperature weather increased, and the electricity consumption gradually increased.

Climate warming has further increased energy consumption, and the amount of automobile oil has increased. The shortage of automobile oil in recent years is an example.

with the increase of high temperature weather, the water demand of the city is further increased. According to statistics, the per capita water resources in Dongguan is only 322 cubic meters, which is not only lower than the international water shortage line of 1,75 cubic meters per person, but also lower than the serious water shortage line of 5 cubic meters, which is also far from the per capita water resources of 2,594 cubic meters in Guangdong Province. With the rapid development of social economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the water supply situation in Dongguan is still grim.

Dongguan is rich in water resources in the air. If the annual precipitation is 177 mm, the water resources from the air will reach nearly 4.4 billion cubic meters every year, which is equivalent to a large reservoir. How to use some facilities to guide the collection, treatment and utilization of rainwater is also an initiative with ecological and economic benefits.

3.4. Impact on urban planning and construction

In the process of building an ecological green city in Dongguan, urban planning and meteorology are inseparable. Firstly, the urban heat island effect causes the temperature to rise, while waterscape and greening can effectively reduce the temperature. Therefore, urban planning and construction should fully consider the green area, that is, the analysis of urban development and atmospheric environmental impact. Secondly, the analysis of urban functional area planning and environmental suitability, such as what is the dominant wind in the city, and polluting industries are not suitable for planning on the windward side; If the wind speed in a certain area is relatively high, it will be conducive to the spread of pollution, and it is more suitable as an industrial development zone. Thirdly, whether urban construction can adapt to the climate change and the impact of bad weather, such as the impact of more and more heavy rainfall on urban roads and flood drainage systems, and the impact of strong thunderstorms on electronic equipment and high-rise buildings.

3.5. Impact on the insurance industry

The impact of climate on insurance is mainly concentrated in the flood season from April to September, which is generally caused by lightning strikes, strong winds, typhoons, rainstorms and sudden landslides caused by rainstorms. With the frequent occurrence of severe weather such as heavy rain, severe thunderstorm and haze, especially in some industries sensitive to weather, the risks of insurance industry have also increased. According to the statistics of Ping An Insurance Company and PICC P&C Insurance Company, the compensation for property losses in 26 was mainly caused by heavy rain, especially the heavy rain on July 16, and Ping An Insurance paid more than 1 million yuan for this rainstorm alone. In 26, due to the need for insurance claims, 21 people went to the Meteorological Bureau to issue meteorological certificates.

3.6. Impact on agriculture and forestry

Climate warming will also have a direct or indirect impact on planting and aquaculture in Dongguan. For example, the decrease of sunshine can slow down the growth of crops; Heavy rain caused floods, which seriously affected crops and flooded fish ponds; The high temperature advances the flowering period and increases agricultural pests and diseases. Taking litchi and banana as examples, long-term low temperature, high temperature, rain, fog and acid rain are very unfavorable to their growth.