What does Hainan's basic cancellation of settlement restrictions mean for the property market?

65438125 October, the website of Hainan Provincial Government published the Notice of the General Office of Hainan Provincial People's Government on Printing and Distributing the New Round of Household Registration System Reform Scheme (Trial) in Hainan Province (hereinafter referred to as the Scheme), in which the restrictions on settlement in the whole province (except Sansha City) were cancelled.

Screenshot of Hainan provincial government website? China securities journal WeChat Gong Hao

This is the second time that Hainan has released a heavy policy related to the property market after Sanya, Hainan, relaxed the talent purchase policy a few days ago.

Many people in the real estate industry pointed out that after relaxing the household registration restrictions, the potential demand for buying houses will be released. In particular, the fourth quarter is the active period of Hainan property market transactions, and it is expected that the transactions in Hainan market will rise in the fourth quarter. However, under the current tone of "stabilizing housing prices", if the local property market rises more than expected, regulatory policies are expected to be introduced.

Significantly reduce the threshold for settlement.

The projects involved in the "Program" are:

First, basically cancel the restrictions on settlement in this province (except Sansha, the same below). Residents in the province can settle in towns (hereinafter referred to as urban communities) with legally stable residences (including leases, the same below). Residents outside the province who have obtained the residence permit of this province and participated in the basic old-age insurance for urban workers in Hainan Province (excluding the payment account of temporary old-age insurance) and the basic medical insurance for urban workers in Hainan Province can settle in urban communities with legally stable residences.

Two, residents in the settlement site without their own property housing, all in the legal and stable residence where the urban community collective households. Residents can also settle in urban community collective households with legally stable residences outside their own property houses. Gradually clean up and standardize all kinds of unit collective households and talent center collective households, and guide residents whose accounts are linked to unit collective households and talent center collective households to move their accounts into urban community collective households with their own property housing accounts or legally stable residences. Achieve full coverage of urban community collective households as soon as possible.

The "Proposal" explicitly cancels the restrictions on the address of residents in the province, as long as there is a fixed residence (including lease). For residents outside the province, they need to have a residence permit in Hainan Province and relevant social insurance in Hainan Province. However, due to the low threshold for handling residence permits in Hainan Province (you can apply for residence permits by signing labor contracts with local enterprises and institutions), the overall difficulty in settling down is greatly reduced.

Zhang Dawei, an analyst with Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the new settlement policy is more relaxed than the policy in Document 20 16 that migrant workers in Qionglai need to settle down at different levels.

Screenshot of Hainan provincial government website

Recently, the service hotline of official website 12345 of Sanya Municipal Government replied to confirm that those who are registered in other provinces, have a full-time college degree or above, have actually worked in Sanya for one year, and have paid social security and individual taxes for one year can buy a property in Hainan Province.

Screenshot of Sanya City, Hainan Province 12345 government service hotline website.

This lowers the threshold for talents from undergraduate to junior college to buy a house. In June this year, the Sanya Municipal Government issued the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Housing Security for Talents in Sanya (hereinafter referred to as the Detailed Rules), covering six categories of talents, including graduate students under 40 years old, undergraduates under 35 years old and talents with intermediate titles under 35 years old. For these six types of talents, the qualifications for buying houses have been relaxed.

Compared with the Detailed Rules, the current talent purchase restriction policy in Sanya has been reduced to college degree or above, and the social security or tax payment period has been reduced to 1 year, which is obviously relaxed compared with before.

Screenshot of Sanya City, Hainan Province 12345 government service hotline website.

At the same time, the staff confirmed that the urgently needed talents actually introduced in Sanya have not yet settled down. After the relevant departments have completed the identification, they can buy a suite in Sanya without social security restrictions.

Real estate has cooled sharply.

For a long time, Hainan's real estate industry has relied heavily on foreign buyers. Hainan Province implemented a strict purchase restriction policy from 20 17, and increased the price from 20 18. Under the limitation of social security years, the number of foreign buyers has decreased significantly. Real estate sales dropped rapidly year-on-year.

Affected by regulation and control, in the past two years, Hainan is the region with the largest downward adjustment of real estate in China.

Hainan Province data show that in the first three quarters, investment in real estate development decreased by 28.1%year-on-year; The housing sales area was 5,849,500 square meters, down 48.6% year-on-year; Housing sales reached 92.892 billion yuan, down 44.6% year-on-year.

Taking Sanya, the hottest area in Hainan Province, as an example, the data of residential contract signing in the first half of the year shows that the property market in Sanya has obviously cooled down under the strict purchase restriction policy. 2065438+In the first half of 2009, 2,369 sets of new commercial housing were signed online, a year-on-year decrease of 4,403 sets, a decrease of about 60%; The number of second-hand houses signed online was 85 1, a decrease of 2,053, a decrease of about 70%.

Because of its unique climatic advantages, Hainan is still attractive to foreign buyers. In the interactive exchange section of Sanya Housing and Construction Bureau, Zheng found that the question of consulting the purchase restriction policy accounts for about 20% of all interactive questions, which shows that the real estate market in Sanya has attracted much attention.

Influence or limit

Zhang Dawei pointed out that from the perspective of the national real estate market, Hainan's real estate market continued to fluctuate greatly in the past, which had a lot of negative effects on the economy. Hainan can reduce its dependence on the real estate market, mainly because of strict policy regulation. At the same time, the construction of a free trade port canceled the GDP and investment assessment, and realized the global purchase restriction. Hainan, as a special region, can be said that it has really achieved housing and not speculation in the past year. From the perspective of real estate regulation and control, although the policy has been relaxed recently, stability is still the mainstream of regional real estate regulation and control.

Wang Xiaoyu, a housing analyst at Zhuge, said that the main reason for Hainan to cancel the settlement restriction policy is to continue to strengthen the reform of the household registration system in response to the "Key Tasks for New Urbanization Construction in 20 19" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on April 8, rather than to promote the recovery of the property market.

Hainan's current purchase restriction policy:

2065438+In April 2008, Hainan implemented a global purchase restriction on the basis of the purchase restriction policy in some areas. The contents include:

In Haikou, Sanya and Qionghai, where the purchase restriction has been implemented, families who are not registered in this province must provide proof that at least one family member has paid personal income tax or social insurance for 60 months or more in Hainan Province;

Outside the above-mentioned areas, if a non-registered household purchases a house, it must provide proof that at least one family member has paid personal income tax or social insurance for 24 months or more in Hainan Province;

As of the date of issuance of this notice, households with household registration in this province can only buy one set of housing, and must provide proof that at least one family member has been paying personal income tax or social insurance for 24 months or more in Hainan Province.

Robert Wang pointed out that the cancellation of the settlement restriction does not mean the cancellation of the purchase restriction. After obtaining the household registration in Hainan Province, it is necessary to strictly implement the purchase restriction policy in Hainan Province. In other words, after residents from other provinces have settled in Hainan through the new regulations, they must also meet the personal income tax or social insurance payment certificate of at least one family member in Hainan Province for 24 consecutive months or more. Therefore, the liberalization of settlement conditions will promote the development of the property market, with little short-term effect.

Wang Xiaotong also said that due to the different purchase restriction policies in different regions of Hainan Province, Haikou, Sanya and Qionghai can obtain the qualification to buy houses by settling down, which will help release the demand for buying houses and promote the recovery of the local real estate market.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the stability of housing prices in Hainan may be strengthened in the future. As soon as similar policies are introduced, it is expected that local housing enterprises and sales organizations will take advantage of the trend to raise prices. Once the market is overheated, we will not rule out continuing pressure regulation in the future.

He also pointed out that the control of the land market later became more important. The heat of the housing market is easily transmitted to the land market. The control of this kind of land trading market is mainly to prevent land hoarding and inflated land prices, and to continue to supervise some illegal reclamation projects.

(The original title is "Heavy! What does Hainan's basic cancellation of settlement restrictions mean for the property market? 》)