Why is the number of people born in China declining one year after the abolition of the one-child policy?

One year after the cancellation of the one-child policy, the number of people born in China decreased by 630,000 in 20 17, suggesting that the authorities need to take more measures to solve the problem of population aging.

In the autumn of 20 15, the government decided to abolish the one-child policy that lasted for 30 years. The Family Planning Commission originally predicted that the full effect of the liberalization of the second child policy would appear in 20 18, bringing about a steady increase in the birth population.

In 20 17 years, the number of children who gave birth to a second child did increase by1620,000. However, the number of first-born children decreased by 2.49 million, so the total number of births decreased. The Family Planning Commission originally predicted in 20 15 that the birth population would increase to 20 million due to policy changes, but now it seems far from it.

The high cost of education, including expensive after-school classes and tutoring, seems to make families in many big cities think twice about having a second child. The lack of cheap and reliable kindergartens and nurseries is also a reason, because most China couples work.

In China, the number of women giving birth in their twenties has declined. In addition, more urban women marry late or even never.

At the same time, the population of China is aging faster and faster. In 20 17, the population over 60 years old increased by about100000, reaching 24 10/00000, accounting for 17.3% of the total population, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over 20 16. The working-age population (16-59 years old) declined for the sixth consecutive year, reaching 902 million. According to the data of China Academy of Social Sciences, from 20 17 to 2022, the population aged 18 ~ 24 will decrease by 30 million.

These demographic changes threaten social security funds, including medical insurance and pensions. In 20 16, the government invested 463 billion yuan (US$ 72.3 billion) to fill the funding gap of the old-age insurance system for urban enterprises, which was equivalent to 16% of the contributions paid by employees in that year. Theoretically speaking, employee contributions should cover all pension expenses.

At present, each pensioner in China is supported by 2.8 contributory workers. In Heilongjiang province, where the population is seriously aging, the ratio is 1: 1.3, and this trend may spread to the whole country. With the decline in the number of workers, the government must make up the deficit, which makes the national financial situation tense.