Is Jiahe Subscription Worth Subscription?

1. Jiahe Bio, as an innovative pharmaceutical company, mainly depends on the progress of drug pipeline research and development. Although Jiahe Bio's pipelines are in a backward state, Jiahe Bio's pipelines are all "toxic", and they are specially looking for innovative drugs with high sales volume abroad. In terms of management, Zhou Xinhua, the CEO in charge of R&D, is from Amgen, and Guo Feng, the CEO in charge of management, is from Pfizer. Executives of big American pharmaceutical companies are a plus for Jiahe. Such executives are particularly important for biotechnology companies, which will make startups take fewer detours. I think this may also be one of the reasons for Gaoling's investment.

2. The biggest black spot of Jiahe comes from the backward R&D progress, but what I want to say is: If the R&D progress is ahead of schedule, will Jiahe still have a market value of about 654.38+00 billion? If Jiahe is the leader of innovative drugs like Cinda and Baekje, and the market directly gives a valuation of 65.438+000 billion and 200 billion, investors may not be able to make more money. At present, the innovative pharmaceutical industry is still in the competitive stage, and the main investment funds are also diversified investment. It is profitable to bet on Jiahe at a relatively cheap price.

3. From the perspective of pre-IPO investment, on June 1 day, 2020, Jiahe Bio just conducted the B round of financing, and the valuation at that time was 23. 1% lower than the issue price of this listing. What does Series B financing stand for? In other words, if you invest in Jiahe Bio, your cost price is only 23. 1% lower than that of professional investors such as Gaoling Capital, Temasek, China Resources Zheng Da Life Science Fund, Haitong Kaiyuan International and Cavenham PE. I think this valuation is ok.

1. What will be the winning percentage of Jiahe Bio?

1, the analysis of the winning rate in group A is actually mainly to predict the number of applicants. I think the winning percentage is cautious and conservative, because if it is low, it will not lose money, and if it is high, it may lose money. Jiahe Bio has a large number of subscribers, and Nongfu Spring has reached 680,000. This time Jiahe is expected to have a maximum of 700,000 and a minimum of 500,000. According to this situation, it is estimated that the first-hand winning rate of Jiahe Bio is between 3% and 4%, and 200 hands have a high probability of winning the first hand. Is it a bit like Ojai?

2. The winning rate of Group B is easy to judge. The winning rate of Group B has a great relationship with the amount of frozen funds, and Group B of Nongfu Spring has frozen 500 billion funds. After the farmer, all brokers are reserving places for Jiahe. Group B of Jiahe must be very crowded, but recently it seems that all brokers have become 10 times the quota, so will the brokers have money or no money at the end of the month? Is there more or less people in Group B? We'll know when the lottery draws. According to the normal situation, the two heads can only get one hand with high probability.

2. What is the expected income of Jiahe Bio and the best subscription strategy?

1, primary financing is a bit optimistic. Assuming that Jiahe Bio's first-day increase is 50% (probably higher), then the expected income of each A-group primary financing is 12000× 50%× winning rate 3%= 180 yuan. From the mathematical probability point of view, the first-hand financing deducted the cost of 65438 yuan. Although it is rare! But maybe one day, the selected son can take several in one hand. Maybe the increase on the first day can be higher? Group a is the main force.

2. It is estimated that 200 lots will be purchased this time, amounting to 2.4 million yuan. 400 lots have reached the A end, and the quantity is close to 500W and B end. It is not worthwhile to subscribe, so it is best to aim at 200 lots. Even at the end of a, it is stable, but according to the purchase of 200 lots, there is a high probability that you can win the lottery.

3. According to the calculation of group A's 200-lot subscription, the expected profit of subscription is 12000× 50% increase minus cost 1500 yuan, and the profit is about 4,500 yuan. In the case of two heads and two heads, the expected income is 12000× 50% minus the cost of 5000 yuan, and the expected profit is about 1000 yuan, which is not as good as that of large groups.

4. the best subscription strategy: the subscription proposal this time is mainly to subscribe for 200 lots in group a, that is, to subscribe for 2.4 million. In addition, the first-hand financing can be used to fight for luck, and a group B fund can subscribe for three 200-hand big armour. Compared with group a and group b, the first hand will be very tasteless. Even if the second hand is second-hand, it may not earn as much money as the last three 200 lots because of the cost.