20 15 a thorough analysis of the trend of house prices in the second half of the year will house prices fall in the second half of the year?

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The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

1, the current housing prices are basically normal, not to say that most people can't afford to buy a house.

In fact, in the past 20 years, the growth rate of house prices has been changing at a normal rate, some years are faster and some years are slower. Its standard should be middle-income families (two people earn wages), except for basic living expenses, buy one square meter in two to three months; With the current income of 10, you can buy a house of 50-80 square meters (calculated by the median of 65) on the edge of the city and in an area with convenient transportation and life. For example, Nanjing 65 * 7500 = 487,000, down payment10.5 million, loan 350,000, 30 years, and monthly repayment should be around 2,000 yuan.

Generally, 65 square meters of housing is too small, and the second apartment can meet the requirements of small families. After 65,438+00 years, when the children go to primary school, you may be able to change to a big house. That's how we got here. We got married and had a small workshop (12 flat). It was not until the children went to primary school that they got their first 50-square-meter house.

Many people don't buy a small house of about 65 square meters in the suburbs like I said, but a big house in the urban area. This is too stressful and makes them complain all the time. In fact, young people are too impetuous and spend ahead of time.

Of course, the above income is average. If it is lower than this, it means that you are not working hard enough or are not suitable for urban development. You can go back to a small place. If you are above this, you have a better choice.

2, income expectations and actual changes: I don't know how many years to buy a suite without eating or drinking.

China is in a golden period of development, and its income is growing rapidly. In the first 20 years, due to the unfair population structure and income distribution, the growth was not ideal. Under unsatisfactory circumstances, income is actually increasing. Take an ordinary undergraduate who has worked stably for 2-3 years after graduation as an example (I have experienced the whole process and I am an ordinary university teacher), and my monthly income is 1985:60 yuan; 1990: 100 yuan; 1995: 500 yuan; 2000: 1500 yuan; 2005: 3,000 yuan; 20 10: 5000.

Due to inflation, the next 10 year will be a golden year for the income of ordinary employees to increase substantially. 1990 income 1000 yuan, we can hardly imagine 1500 yuan in 2000, and we can hardly imagine 5,000 yuan and 438+0,000 yuan in 2065. Similarly, you can boldly see how much your income will be in 10 years-10000 yuan or 20000 yuan.

Finally, imagine how to stabilize the house price if the average monthly income of individuals is1-20,000 yuan and the average monthly income of families is 20,000-40,000 yuan after 10, so that everyone can easily buy a house and buy two sets and three sets. Obviously impossible, because there is no land to build so many houses, and there is no developed country to make it easy for you to buy houses, so the result will only be a simultaneous rise in house prices. The same savings of two to three months can buy about one square meter, and the market can be balanced. What should the house price be at that time-20,000 to 50,000 (the house price in Chengdu). In other places, you do the math yourself.

After 10, the economy developed to a relatively developed level, the growth rate slowed down, urbanization was almost the same, the population was stable, income growth was slow, and house prices were stable.

A large number of rural people have bought houses in cities, which is not pseudo-urbanization (it is impossible to buy houses in cities).

Let's look at the following three facts first: First of all, young people in rural areas are basically working in cities. Second, farmers now generally have only two children, most of whom are boys. Third, young farmers are now working in cities and will not return to the countryside in the future. The conclusion is that in recent 10 years, about 30% rural families have been irreversibly urbanized.

According to the traditional custom in China, parents may try their best to help their children and the whole family to work and buy houses in cities, which is a matter of course in rural areas.

I am also a rural migrant worker, and my roots are in the countryside. Tell my peasant brothers:

Don't build a house in the countryside unless you are sure that the house you are repairing will be requisitioned, or you can do business, and there is a good future and value-added space around you. It will be worthless in the future, because your children will not survive and develop in the countryside and will not go back. Rural areas can't carry too many people's dreams of getting rich, and rural resources only need a small part of labor. If you can buy a house in a big city, don't buy a house in a county or town. Because only places that can provide employment opportunities will be popular, and your children can survive, otherwise the house is worthless. You see, the population of Taipei accounts for half of that of Taiwan Province Province, and that of Seoul accounts for two thirds of that of South Korea. Tokyo accounts for130,000, accounting for 1 1% of the Japanese population. China will not be a central city, but it is inevitable that the population will be concentrated in dozens of central cities in the future.

4, we should consider getting sick, children going to school, parents supporting the elderly, and having no money to buy a house.

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

If you have all the money you may get sick, the money your children need in the future, and the money your parents need for providing for the elderly in the future, you will never be able to afford a house. Because you use your current low income to cope with future inflation, income increase and various expenses increase, the money you prepare now will be worthless in the future, and you can never do what you intend to do. Imagine that in the 1980s and 1990s, many ordinary people saved money frugally. With their income at that time, it was difficult to save120,000, but it is of no value today, and it is really a loss. At present, it should be the efforts of the whole family to buy a house in a city where you can stand.

The best way to solve the problem of illness should be basic medical insurance.

You don't have to think about your children going to school. In fact, children can go to general compulsory education schools.

On the issue of parents' support for the elderly, may I ask your acquaintances and colleagues around you whether parents help their children more economically or children help their parents more? I think everyone will soon come to the conclusion that parents should help their children more. The reason should be the tradition of parents helping their children get married in China traditional culture. Children enter middle age, parents enter old age, and children honor and take care of their parents.

The biggest wish of parents in this life is that their children get married and start a family. At present, it takes the whole family to buy a house in a city where they can stand. In the future, you can take care of your parents in their old age 10 years.

5. Look at housing vacancy rate with a black light. No, is the vacancy rate high? Not high, and within the normal range, there are also reasons:

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

For example, in the old community of my husband's family, I go to see how many lights are black at night; I'm telling you, it's already high. If you don't believe me, you can visit your city at night. There are also 1/3 lights. I have studied it specially. This summer vacation, when I copied the vacancy rate online, I watched it in the old city of Chengdu for a week, from 8:00 to 10:00. But I tell you, almost 65,438+000% are occupied. No matter whether you rent out or live by yourself, you must live, except for re-professionalism or in the transitional period of rent and rent. Because my husband's house has been repaired before, people can live in it or rent it without decoration, and the supporting facilities are mature. Let me ask you, who doesn't live or rent and can't get by with their own money? Renting a house is not a hassle. It's cheaper to rent it out, so it's not so stupid.

Of course, due to the renovation, the occupancy rate of the newly-built community should have been gradually improved (some of them are self-occupied, but they are temporarily vacant due to children's enrollment, retirement, imperfect supporting facilities and other reasons). Secondly, buying a house does have a certain proportion of investment and speculation. After five years' market digestion (investment and speculation) and mature supporting facilities, the occupancy rate will naturally reach a normal level, and no one will make tens of millions or millions of assets unprofitable for a long time, even if it is a little rent.

6. China's income is low, China's house price income is higher than odd number, and it is cheaper abroad. No, please look at the data:

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

We should pay attention to the oriental culture in China, and the urbanization and housing prices of Japanese, Taiwan Province, Korean, Hongkong and China in Asia are our future.

The answer to this question is simple. Search the average wage income and their house prices in Taiwan Province Province, Korean and Hongkong on the Internet. Considering that their cost of living is higher than ours, we can basically get two to three months' salary. In addition to basic expenses, they can save money to buy a square house (in fact, they can't. It takes about three to four months for two people to save money to buy a square house. Considering that China's economy is in the stage of high-speed development and high-speed urbanization, it is normal to have an appropriate premium (or bubble). It is concluded that the housing prices in North China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Guangzhou are higher or normal, while those in second-tier cities such as Chengdu and Wuhan are lower or normal.

Please look at the authoritative data I found:

A folk survey in Taiwan Province Province shows that among the eight international cities in Asia, Hongkong, Shenzhen and Beijing are the top three, accounting for 22%, 19.28% and 17.6 1% respectively.

According to media reports in Taiwan Province Province, according to a survey conducted by Asia Housing Risk Management Consulting Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Taiwan Province Housing, in this ranking, Tokyo's housing prices fell by 6.98% and Seoul's by 3.04% in the past year, making it the only two cities among the eight major cities with falling housing prices.

According to the survey, among the average house prices in eight major cities:

Hong Kong ranks first, with 2.02 million yuan per square meter (NTD, the same below, equivalent to 6.5438+0.34 million yuan per square meter). Tokyo ranks second with 1.72 million yuan per square meter (equivalent to11.40 million yuan per square meter). The third to fifth places are Singapore1129,000 yuan (equivalent to 75,000 yuan per square meter), Seoul 860,000 yuan (equivalent to 57,000 yuan per square meter) and Taipei 469,000 yuan (equivalent to 36,543,800 yuan per square meter).

Shenzhen ranks six to eight with an average price of 366,200 yuan (equivalent to 23,800 yuan per square meter), Shanghai 337,600 yuan (equivalent to 22,300 yuan per square meter) and Beijing 285,800 yuan (equivalent to 65,438 yuan per square meter +0.88 million yuan).

Income comparison:

Taiwan Province Province: 20 10 12 "Recently, the Economic Development Council released a" record high "data, which pointed out that the per capita salary reached 44,000 yuan this year. However, according to the survey of the General Accounting Office of the Executive Yuan, there are nearly 3.6 million employees with a monthly income of less than 30,000 yuan this year, of which 65,438+0.038 million are less than 20,000 yuan. This not only shows the trend of M-type economy, but also highlights the substantial increase of "poor and busy families" who work more and get less. ”。 The monthly income of Taiwan Province Province is NT$ 30,000, which is equivalent to US$ 65,438+0,000, which translates into RMB 6,800. The average salary is 44,000 yuan, equivalent to 1 1 1,000 yuan.

Hong Kong and Korea: The annual income from full-time work in Hong Kong and Korea can reach10-15,000 yuan, which is equivalent to the average monthly salary12,500 yuan. Of course, low income is also very low. The monthly income of the low-income class in Hong Kong 10- 15% is about 5000 RMB.

Please read the report (available online): "The first minimum wage in Hong Kong will be decided soon. It is revealed that the Executive Council will discuss the minimum wage today (9), and it is estimated that the Association will accept the proposal of the Provisional Minimum Wage Committee on hourly wage in 28 yuan (HK$, the same below). In the first half of next year at the earliest, 365,438+4,600 grass-roots employees in Hong Kong whose hourly wage is lower than that in 28 yuan will get a raise. The catering industry appeals to employers to comprehensively consider ways to save costs. It is not necessary to start with layoffs and pay cuts. Don't let the minimum wage turn labor relations into a battlefield. "

The minimum monthly salary is: 28 * 8 * 22 = 4,828 Hong Kong dollars = 4,345 yuan, calculated by working 5 days a week, 22 days a month and 8 hours a day.

7. There may be a real estate bubble, but it may not be big. There is no need to argue. Buy what you can:

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

Strategically speaking, with the increase of income and the advancement of urbanization, house prices will continue to rise, and you can buy if you are creative. Tactically speaking, house prices will fluctuate due to national policies and market factors, and it is necessary to find a suitable buying point.

I can't predict the short-term house price, but I think I can basically get two to three months' salary for two people. Apart from basic expenses, the rule of saving money to buy a square house for one month will always work. Houses will make you feel difficult to buy at any time, because there are not so many houses, and you must rely on high housing prices to balance them. You are looking at the change of income and thinking about the possible house prices in the future:

Take an ordinary undergraduate who has been working stably for 2-3 years as an example (I have full experience as an ordinary university teacher), and my monthly income is 1985: 60 yuan; 1990: 100 yuan; 1995: 600 yuan; 2000: 1500 yuan; 2005: 3,000 yuan; 20 10: 5000.

Everyone can't have a house to live in. For example, rural aunts go to cities as nannies, rural youths go to cities to work, and "our company" has to solve the house, which country and city can do it. If Beijing and Shanghai realize home ownership; Farmers will all go to big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai at once (in fact, most of the rural labor force is in cities now), so it is very easy to find a job, which is not a big deal. As long as they have an independent house, they can enjoy all kinds of benefits, which is better than digging in the countryside. Can you finally adapt to the big city?

Maybe you will say, I should have a house a few years after graduating from college. No, I'm telling you, you're not nobler than the migrant workers who work in cities. If "our company" has solved your housing, why not give it to migrant workers who work in cities? Besides, many of them are skilled (such as electricians, bricklayers, welders, etc.). ), their income is not lower than yours, their work is harder than yours, and farmers can endure hardships and save money than you. If they wake up, they can still afford to buy a house in the city (just use the house they built in their hometown as a down payment).

8. You should have your own ideas and draw conclusions from the surveys around you. Don't be influenced by some opinions in the media and forums.

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

Many people have housing difficulties. Now most of the original urban residents have houses, accounting for no less than 95%. New city people basically have their own houses in 5- 10 years, and there are not a few people who have two suites. Can't you explain the rationality of housing prices from one side?

How many years can I buy a house without eating or drinking? Look at the acquaintances who have already bought a house. Are they happy? I think most people are happy, although some people are under great pressure. When most of them can't afford the mortgage, the personal mortgage of real estate is the best asset of the bank at present. Banks have to queue up for a long time to repay loans in advance, which shows that with the increase of income, many property buyers have the spare capacity to repay loans in advance. Look at the acquaintances who have already bought a house around them, and how high the proportion of early repayment is. My survey shows that the proportion is as high as over 80%. If not, ask your friend in the bank.

9. pin the hope of buying a house on economic crisis, war, earthquake and terrorist activities.

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

When the economic crisis comes, will mankind be helpless and expect the economy to return to primitive society overnight?

When war, earthquake and terrorist activities come, is it important to save your life or bargain-hunting?

1 1, analyze the trend of the property market with the stock market model.

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

Will the property market rise today and fall tomorrow, just like the stock market?

Practice has proved that buying a house at a low price is either professional or blind.

Can the property market be like the stock market, fast-forward and fast-out, buying and selling at will?

Alas, there is no land in the city center. Occasionally, the price of opening a new offer is too high, and you have to rely on relationships and luck to grab it.

12, unable to grasp the development stage of the property market from a macro perspective.

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

The initial stage of the development of the property market is actually very short, that is, 10 years.

With eyes open, developers sell buildings within the Third Ring Road;

As soon as they close their eyes, developers will sell buildings within the Fifth Ring Road;

Turning a blind eye, the developer sold the building in the satellite city.

13, fooled by people who don't have a house

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

There are many great immortals who predict the housing market on the forum, and a large part of them may not even step on the threshold of the sales office, but this does not affect his confidence in the management of the housing market, nor does it affect the fanaticism of believers. When it comes to verification, it's okay to abandon the building and run away. Niu Daxian coldly said to the victims who came to complain: "They are all adults and will not make their own decisions." I told you to eat shit, and you ate it? " .

Buy as soon as you can afford it. This proposal is an important basis for the criticism of housing trust in the past decade. However, bloody facts prove that at this stage, the location is much more important than the band.

The last four suggestions:

The analysis is very thorough! Housing price trend in the second half of 20 15 in the eyes of real estate experts.

(1) Children from rural areas must ask their families not to build houses in rural areas. Unless you are sure that the house you repair will be requisitioned, or you can do business, and there is a good future and value-added space around you, don't repair the house in the countryside, it will be worthless in the future. Take the money from rural housing construction as part of the down payment and buy a house in the city.

(2) immigrate to the city and gather the whole family to buy a house in the city. You and even your parents (some cities can follow relatives) can enjoy all the benefits of the city. If it doesn't work for the time being, then hurry to consider the affordable housing and price-limited housing of "our company", which will be repaired a lot this year.

(3) Don't buy cars and fashionable digital products. A car has a small house. Think about it. The money for buying a car is a down payment, and the money for maintaining a car is a mortgage. It is ok to buy a 40-square-meter house in the suburbs. Diligence and thrift, as for fashionable digital products, are entirely contributions to product research and development, and that thing will not be reduced in price for two or three years. Can't the mobile phone around 200 yuan work? Just enough.

(4) Finally, remember that the university has four rooms and a canteen. The cost of living in January is around 500-600 yuan (at present, our school is relatively high along the coast, and the average cost will not exceed 1000 yuan). You are full and happy. Working in the city, you can rent one of the houses with your girlfriend, cook, eat and live by yourself, which is better than the school you just left and delicious. Start saving money and prepare to buy a house.

I hope my answer is useful to you. Satisfied, please adopt!