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& lt& lt The impact of population on economy & gt

/kloc-the geographical discovery at the end of 0/5 completely changed the world pattern, including the ethnic pattern. On the world stage since modern times, nine countries have appeared in different historical periods. These nine rising powers are Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Japan and the United States. Among them, the United States is a descendant of Britain. The rise of Portugal, Spain and the Netherlands is only a flash in the pan, and its prosperity and demise are also sudden, just like a few little frogs, plop a few times and then calm down. Only Britain and Russia have risen in the national sense. The rise is accompanied by the rapid growth of the national population, and the population backing makes the rise lasting. Note: In my opinion, population is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition for the rise of a great country. Without other conditions, the population cannot grow alone. A9 l% `$ x% R" J5 M

: j8 A6 r% R 1 a$ ~ 1492 Columbus discovered America, and the introduction of high-yield crops in America caused a sharp increase in the global population. Because of the different fertility culture and sensitivity to new crops, the population reproduction speed in different regions is very different, which has changed the national pattern in the world since then. From the perspective of Europe, only Britain and Russia, two small border countries, have the fastest population growth, while France, Spain, Italy and other continental European countries are not growing very fast. Mainly after the Renaissance, the traditional fertility culture in the European continent is weakening; Britain still continues abstinence and maintains the medieval Christian fertility culture. At that time, Russia was still a very backward serfdom country, and ordinary people were hardly influenced by the new ideological trend.

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:l4o * z)F+H； D' w' X Portugal and Spain rose in the16th century, established colonial empires with global influence by relying on new shipping routes and colonial plunder, and reached their peak in the first half of the16th century, becoming the first generation of world powers, but they quickly flourished and declined. Is a typical upstart rise. In fact, from the perspective of population, the decline of Spain and Portugal is inevitable. In 1500, the populations of Spain and Portugal were 6 million and 100 respectively. By 1600, the populations of the two countries were only 8 million and 2 million respectively. With such a small population, it is impossible to manage the global economy for a long time. 0 o/ j+ x$ ]# z

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The Netherlands rose in the17th century, and its East India Company once monopolized half of the global trade. But at the end of 17, the Netherlands gradually lost its hegemony over the world. Because the Netherlands is only a tiny place with a population of more than one million, the population only increased to two million in 18 16. Such a small population cannot lead the global economy for a long time. It is worth mentioning that the Netherlands has created state, joint-stock system, maritime trade, international market and capital market, initiated the establishment of modern banks, and invented the credit system that is still in use today, making great contributions to modern civilization; However, the Netherlands is also the first country in the world to legalize gay marriage and euthanasia. In 200 1 year, the Netherlands also created the world's first "drug business", announcing that marijuana was approved as a prescription drug and it was legal to smoke marijuana. Success is Xiao He, and failure is me; Modern civilization rises in the Netherlands and will also be destroyed in the Netherlands.

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The rise of Britain is accompanied by rapid population growth. Because the United States and Britain are in the same strain, the rise of Britain can be said to have continued until now. The population of Britain (including Britain and Ireland now) increased from 4 million in 1500 to 6 million in 1600,1630,000, 1800 and 4 1600. Now, with immigrants from the United States, Canada and Australia, the total number of descendants is at least 2 1.5 million, an increase of more than 53 times. Why did the industrial revolution originate in Britain instead of France? 》(/show.aspx？ Id= 1202) expounds that population has promoted the rise of Britain.

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France has always been the center of Europe and the most populous country in the world. In modern France, the population growth was slow, reaching19.7 million in 1550, decreasing to16 million in 1700 and recovering to 20 million in1600,660. Compared with its position in Europe, France did not really rise in modern times.

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Germany has always been the battlefield of the whole of Europe. People from loose German states often become mercenaries of European powers, killing each other on their own land, and the population is increasing. The population of Germany was12 million in 1500, increased to 20 million in 1600, decreased to10 million in 30 years' war, and increased to 29 million in 1800. 1806 Napoleon invaded, Prussia and other so-called imperial countries suffered a fiasco, and their population also decreased. 18 14, Napoleon was defeated by the anti-French alliance. Under the leadership of Britain and Russia, a "German Federation" consisting of 38 states was established, but each state still has independent sovereignty. 18 16, the population of Germany was 22.4 million, and then it grew steadily. 1930 recovered to 29.4 million, 1834 German Customs Union was established. 187 1 When Germany was unified, its population had increased to 4 1 1 10,000, making it the second most populous country in Europe (after Russia), while the populations of Britain and France were 310.6 million and 36.9 million respectively. ，p- v$ }。 d2 [2 y5 {# E

J# k5 g3 R$ ]: R# w" B Germany's population is increasing rapidly and under great pressure, but it can't get food and other resources from the colonies like Britain, which forces Germany to turn to scientific and technological innovation. In this way, on the one hand, Germany is a populous country, on the other hand, it popularizes free compulsory education and strengthens scientific and technological innovation, so that population resources can be quickly transformed into human resources. With the advantage of human resources, Germany led the second industrial revolution in the19th century and stood at the forefront of the world's scientific and technological development. For example, in order to increase the grain output, Germany developed a chemical fertilizer to convert nitrogen in the air into fertilizer. 19 13 realized the industrial production of synthetic ammonia, which not only increased the grain output of Germany, but also made contributions to all mankind. Germany's population advantage has further increased. In 19 13, the population increased to 67 million, far exceeding the population of 45 million and 39 million in Britain and France. With the population advantage, the comprehensive national strength has been greatly improved, and its strength has surpassed that of Britain in an all-round way, making it the second economic power in the world after the United States. 19 14 launched the first world war. 1939, the population of Germany increased to 8,765,438+million, while the populations of Britain and France, the neighbors of Europe, were only 45 million and 39 million respectively. Absolute superiority made Germany's ambition expand again and launched the Second World War. Indian potatoes have dramatically increased the population of Germany. For example, from 1759 to 1763, the "Seven Years' War" took place in Europe. Although France, Austria-Hungary and Russia invaded Prussia many times and destroyed crops on the surface, Prussians escaped this disaster by planting potatoes underground. Some people vividly say that the two world wars were caused by potatoes.

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It can be seen that the rise of Germany benefited from the increase in population. From 18 16 to 19 13, the German population has tripled, while the British population has only increased by 2.3 times, the French population has only increased by 1.3 times, and the China population has not increased. From 18 16 to 1939, the population of Germany increased by 3.9 times, while the population of Britain and France only increased by 2.3 times and 1.3 times respectively (the population of these two countries did not increase from 19 13.

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2 ? 9 d* g' k) X* `2？ "n Developing the growing huge population resources into human resources is the secret of Germany's rise. The rise of Japan basically adopted the German model. The population pressure in Germany and Japan is so great that the elites think it needs to be solved through war. Facts have proved that this view is wrong. Germany and Japan themselves are enough to feed a huge population. 1937 before Japan invaded China, the population was less than 70 million, and it felt that the population was under great pressure and needed foreign aggression. At present, the population is 1.27 billion, and the living standard is much higher than 1.937. Make every effort to encourage childbearing.

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)l# }5 [。 v(_ 4)6 k2 m； ~ Russia used to be an isolated small country in eastern Europe and did not have much say in European history. The population of all areas in the former Soviet Union was only 6 million in 1500 (including Russia, which did not have such a large population in 1500), and rapidly increased to 1300. With the innovation of Peter the Great, Russia launched a wide-ranging "Westernization" movement, learning from France, Germany and other western European countries to improve its economic and cultural backwardness, and Russia quickly developed into a powerful country in Eastern Europe. However, Russia is still very conservative ideologically. Both Peter the Great and Catherine II pursued Russia's power through internal despotism and external expansion. After hearing the news of the French Revolution, Catherine II denounced the Enlightenment as "the plague of France". When families in France and other European countries enjoy modern life and have fewer children, Russia is still a serfdom country. Ordinary people keep their own orthodox birth culture, and the population is increasing rapidly. 1800 population increased to 35.5 million, 18 15 population reached 45 million (at that time, the population of France, Germany and Britain were 30 million and 22.4 million respectively) 18 14 czar Alexander I was elected as an ally of the sacred union of Europe. Engels once pointed out: "Panicked Western Europe did not know that there was a Moscow Principality in the north at the beginning of Ivan the Terrible's rule, but now it is dumbfounded to see a huge empire appear on the eastern border."

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+g 1 q/w & amp； | S# H 1 v7 J S Due to the social contradictions brought about by serfdom, Russia's industrialization process has been seriously hindered. Russia abolished serfdom in 1860, when the population reached 7465438+ million, but the population growth rate did not slow down. By the October Revolution of 1900 and 19 17, the population of Russia had reached 1. The Soviet Union inherited Russia's vast land and huge population, and carried out a series of social revolutions, miraculously turning a poor and backward agricultural country with a large population into an industrialized country and one of the two superpowers in the world, and the population also increased to 289 million in 1990.

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)@ 0l； O+ j, I/ g 1 G6 o+ E If Russia's population growth rate is the same as that of France, then even if it rises, it will only be a flash in the pan, and it will not last long, and it will be good to become a regional power. 9 c " I 1g； k+ m. \7 |

6 ^5 i9 k8 n9 h & amp； J It can be seen that the rise of Russia benefited from the rapid increase of population, which made the rise of Russia last for nearly 300 years before it declined. Columbus's discovery of America caused a global population explosion, in which Britain and Russia were the most powerful countries, and the two superpowers, the United States (from Britain) and the Soviet Union (from Russia), were also "bombed". 1500, the population of Britain and Russia were only 4 million and 6 million respectively. However, at present, the total number of descendants of Britain's original population of 4 million is at least 2150,000, an increase of more than 53 times. At the beginning, the population of 6 million Russian regions (not only Russia at that time) increased to 1990, and increased to 289 million, an increase of 48 times. )H5 ~； N" t5 c) a5 [5？ * o

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There are many reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Peter schwartz, a famous American futurist, believes that population determines the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union destroyed the traditional religion-dependent fertility culture, and the fertility rate began to decline in the 1930s and remained low for a long time. In the 1960s, the average number of children per woman in the United States was about 3.5 and 3.0 respectively, while that in the Soviet Union was only 2.6 and 2.2 respectively. The ratio of abortion to born baby is as high as 4: 1 (even at the peak of sexual liberation in the early 1980s in the United States, the ratio of abortion to born baby was only 0.4: 1). No immigrants were introduced, and the mortality rate was high, the life expectancy was shorter than that of the United States, and many people died prematurely at working age. 1In the late 1980s, the labor shortage was the most serious, and it could not support such a huge system, which led to the collapse of 199 1 year. At present, except for a few Muslim countries, the fertility rate of other countries joined by the former Soviet Union is only about 1.2, and the population decline threatens the sustainable development of the country. A thin camel is bigger than a horse. If an effective birth-encouraging system can be established to prevent the population from decreasing, Russia, with its current population of 654.38+0.4 billion, still has hope of revival. In other words, the population of Russia is increasing, and the hope of revival is still in the population. F7·P6 I; d: f

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The role of population factors in the rise of the United States is very obvious. The population of the United States was only 2.5 million in 1776 and 5.3 million in 1800. With the high fertility rate and immigration, the population has increased rapidly, reaching 762 10000, 19 105 respectively, breaking through 1 100 million. That is to say, from 19 15 to 1990, the population increased by 2.49 times; The population of the Soviet Union increased from1918.46 million in 2007 to 28.86 million in 1990, only increasing by 1.56 times. Although the population of the Soviet Union was still slightly larger than that of the United States in 1990, the population structure of the Soviet Union was seriously deformed, and the working population was not enough to support a big country with a population of 288 million. It can be seen that the population structure is very important. No matter how large the population is, it is easy to collapse without a reasonable population structure. 5 `/ ? % ~ 7q & amp； ^

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From East and West Germany, we can also see the population contrast between the United States and the Soviet Union. After World War II, Germany was divided into two parts (some areas were separated from Germany), and the population of West Germany increased from 46.6 million in 1946 to 614 million in 1988, an increase of 3 1%. The population of socialist countries in East Germany decreased from18.5 million in 1946 to16.7 million in 1988, a decrease of 10%. The abortion rate in East Germany is also much higher than that in West Germany.

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? ( [; @; U3 \7 g One of the reasons why the United States is the most powerful country among developed countries is that it is the most populous country (the third most populous country in the world after China and India) and has the largest population scale benefit among developed countries. In addition to economic competitive advantages, the gap between technological innovation and Europe is also growing, and more and more Nobel Prize winners are concentrated in the United States. From 190 1 to 1936, 13 people in the United States won the Nobel Prize, accounting for10.3% of the global winners (126 people); From 1943 to 1997, there are 170 winners in the United States, accounting for 53% of the global winners (320); From 1998 to 2000, there were 16 winners in the United States, accounting for 64%(25) of the global winners. Among them, there were 8 winners in the United States in 2000, accounting for 72.7% of the global winners (11). American scientists won all the Nobel prizes for science in 2006. With the decrease of population in Europe and the increase of population in the United States, the gap between Europe and the United States in science and technology will become larger and larger in the future. * u . B6 V r(n " t & amp； g； U# x: H

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According to the analysis of The Economist in 2002, 1950, the population of Western Europe is twice that of the United States: 304 million to 654.38+52 million. Since then, the fertility rate on both sides of the Atlantic has declined, from 1970 to 1985, and the fertility rate in the United States is slightly lower than that in Europe. However, in the1980s, strange things began to happen. The fertility rate in the United States suddenly began to reverse the downward trend, and in the 1990s, the fertility rate in the United States returned to the standard slightly lower than 2. 1. However, the fertility rate in Europe continues to decline. In 2000, the population of the United States was 2.8 1 billion, and the population of western Europe1billion. However, according to conservative population forecast, by 2040, the population of the United States will surpass that of Europe. According to bolder forecasts, by 2030, the population of the United States will surpass that of Western Europe. By 2050, the population of Europe will drop to 360 million, and the population of the United States will reach 550 million. Today, the average national income of the United States is one third higher than that of Europe. If this level can be maintained, even if Central and Eastern European countries join the European Union, the economic scale of the United States will be more than twice that of Europe. The American market with 400 million to 550 million wealthy consumers is undoubtedly more important to foreign companies than it is now. Higher fertility rate and more immigrants will not only produce more people, but also a younger, more ethnically integrated and generally more dynamic society. According to Bill Frev, a demographer at the University of Michigan, by 2050, the median age in the United States will be 36.2, while in Europe it will be 52.7. This is a surprising difference, almost entirely caused by the rapid aging of the European population. At present, the median age in the United States is 35.5 years old, while in Europe it is 37.7 years old. In other words, the median age difference may rise from 2 years old to 17 years old in 2050, which is basically two generations. The young population will undoubtedly put the United States in a favorable position in economic competition. 3 D% r# }5 s！ e； v2 W( p

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June+10/October 65438+July 2006, the total population of the United States has reached 300 million. Some domestic scholars began to worry about the United States, thinking that the increase in population would lead to the decline of American national strength and living standards. However, many scholars in the United States believe that population growth means prosperity, and the breakthrough of the 300 million mark in the United States symbolizes that the United States is more dynamic economically and more attractive politically than other industrialized developed countries such as Europe and Japan. Daniel T. Griswold, director of the Center for International Trade Studies at the Cato Institute in the United States, said that the increase in the population of the United States is directly proportional to the increase in the quality of life. The population of the United States is four times that of a hundred years ago, but the life of Americans is much better than 1906, and the average life expectancy has increased from 48 to 78. The neonatal mortality rate in the United States has dropped sharply; The United States has controlled the epidemic of deadly infectious diseases; The air Americans breathe is fresher, the water they drink is cleaner, the food is more varied and the housing area is more spacious. He thinks there is no reason to doubt that the rising trend of quality of life will change because of the population growth. At the same time, griswold believes that the population growth rate in the United States is not very fast, but very slow. He said that since 1900, the American population has maintained a growth rate of 1.3 1%. But in the past 15 years, it has dropped to 1. 16% per year. Since 2000, the population growth rate has dropped below 1%. Therefore, griswold believes that it is something to celebrate that the United States has exceeded 300 million people. He said that the United States has a large population, which can create a huge consumer market and stimulate innovation and economic vitality.

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With the irreversible decline of global fertility rate, the security of population structure will be the biggest security problem of a country, and the birth policy will determine the future of a nation. A large population has both density advantages and scale advantages; Population resources can be transformed into human resources, providing a huge market for economic development. Therefore, a large population is the biggest advantage resource for the rise of China. Without the advantages of capital, resources and technology, China has made great achievements since the reform and opening up, mainly due to our population and resource advantages.

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7 g% z8f5y * g9sHowever, the advantage of population resources in China is disappearing. Now, China's annual birth population has dropped to120,000, while India's annual birth population is still above 24 million, which means that China's labor force will be only half that of India in the future. The population problem has a lag of 20 years, so we should plan ahead now. *