When will steel prices pick up this year?

Recently, the national port coal inventory exploded and the price plummeted, which made people lament that the "golden decade" of coal was over. Compared with the situation of coal enterprises, the steel industry is just so, or even worse. After entering the 2 1 century, the steel industry entered a period of rapid development, especially in 2008, when the investment was 4 trillion yuan, the steel industry developed explosively. As the steel production capacity exceeds 500 million tons, it is urgent to adjust the steel production capacity structure. At present, the output of crude steel has exceeded 900 million tons, resulting in a serious overcapacity in the steel industry, which has seriously broken the balance between supply and demand in the market and led to a frequent decline in steel prices.

Coupled with the debt crisis in Europe and the United States this year, the domestic economic growth rate has declined, the growth rate of various industries downstream of steel has declined, and the demand of the steel industry is weak. Under the current situation of "two highs and two lows" such as high output, high inventory, low demand and low price, the steel trade industry has been overwhelmed. In the first half of this year, the steel industry entered the era of losses in the whole industry, and the "golden years" of the steel industry are gone forever. Now, we are facing the operational difficulties of the whole industry. To tide over the difficulties, it depends on how the steel industry "cuts bones to survive".

Since the first half of this year, the output of crude steel has hit record highs, and the average daily output has exceeded 2 million tons for several months. However, the downturn in the steel market in the first half of this year shows that the increasing output has been increasing the burden on the steel market, and there are waves of voices calling for self-help in reducing production, but it is difficult for steel mills to reduce production spontaneously. What's more, the most shocking thing is that the National Audit Office recently revealed that the annual energy consumption of the subsidiaries of Baosteel, WISCO and Angang Group in recent years was 65,438+07% of the total energy consumption of the three enterprises in 2065,438+00. How can major domestic steel producers not take the lead in reducing production and increasing production in violation of regulations? If the steel industry does not cut production to save itself, how can it survive?

Secondly, the bank credit crisis is serious. The 4 trillion investment plan at the end of 2008 has made the steel trade industry an important customer pursued by banks. After 2009, a rare phenomenon of banks taking money to find lenders was staged all over the country, so steel trading enterprises gradually evolved into financing platforms for steel traders. With the tightening of real estate regulation and monetary policy, the profit model of steel trade financing has been broken. Many steel traders can't withdraw huge loan funds normally, and bank loans can't be repaid. So all kinds of horror stories such as escape, jumping off a building and suicide. Frequent occurrence, continuous outbreak of bank bad debts, steel trade industry began to enter the "blacklist" of bank loan risks. At present, bank loans in the steel industry are more difficult. It is conceivable that without financial support, how can the steel trade industry survive?

Zhouning Chamber of Commerce sent a letter to commercial banks, hoping to support enterprises to tide over the crisis, but the CBRC still publicly suggested the credit risk of steel traders to banks; Recently, Zhou Ning Chamber of Commerce once again called on banks not to implement "one-size-fits-all" loans to steel traders, and only then did some banks in Shanghai respond. Therefore, Industrial Bank has raised the basic access standard of credit for steel trade enterprises and the basic access threshold for steel trade industry. However, although the bank credit threshold was raised, it finally opened a door for steel traders. How to win the trust of banks in the later stage of steel trade industry depends on how to strengthen self-discipline in steel trade industry. The steel industry is no longer a financing platform for multiple mortgages. Only by recognizing this clearly and strengthening self-management can steel traders gradually win the trust of banks.

Third, the most popular voice in the market at present is that the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market is difficult to solve, and the steel market has a long way to go. Although there is a lot of good news recently, these projects have a long investment cycle and it is difficult for policies to benefit the steel trade industry. At the same time, the demand of downstream industries such as real estate, shipbuilding, automobile and machining is not strong, which leads to the increasingly depressed steel market. Indeed, the steel market cannot survive without the support of demand. It's just that the demand of the downstream industries in the steel market is sluggish, and the state can also introduce many policies to stimulate it. Although it will take time to change, it can at least bring the actual demand effect in the later stage, which is also a step to save the market. Then, as a place where the steel industry itself needs reform, has the external demand started to change?

To sum up, high output, intensified contradiction between supply and demand, slow inventory and no improvement in downstream demand are all important factors that cause the current dilemma of the steel industry. In the face of such an industry crisis, has the steel industry awakened? Although the iron and steel industry looks much more complicated, it is bound to start with its own reform if it wants to survive and develop.

Downstream funds are in distress, when will steel prices pick up?

For large-scale projects such as railway construction and affordable housing construction, funds are the lifeblood of the project, and whether the funds can be put in place is directly related to the speed of the project process. Once upon a time, a large number of railways resumed work and the construction of180,000 sets of affordable housing was expected to make the steel industry refreshing. Originally thought that with the help of these projects' demand for steel, the steel market would enter a hot sale. But judging from the current situation, it seems to be counterproductive. Because of the financial difficulties, the demand for steel in these projects has always been difficult to release, whether it is railways or affordable housing, and the expectations of steel traders have temporarily failed.

Recently, according to the latest news, the opening time of national key railway construction projects such as Beijing-Shijiazhuang and Shiwu Passenger Dedicated Lines has been postponed from last year to the end of this year. The preliminary work of Beijing-Shenyang Passenger Dedicated Line has been basically completed except for the environmental assessment of Beijing section, but there is still no sign of the stopped project starting. In addition, although six railway projects, such as Chengdu-Guizhou Railway and Chongqing-Guizhou Railway Capacity Expansion, have already completed the examination and approval procedures, they have not actually started construction until now. The delay in the progress of several railway projects can not help but make people link the railway projects with the funding problem again. If it is really because of the funding problem, it is conceivable that the national "four vertical and four horizontal" passenger dedicated lines are still so, and the funding problem of other railway construction projects is definitely more serious.

We know that the shortage of funds has always been the most prominent problem in railway construction. According to public information, in 20 1 1 year, the investment plan for railway construction in Hebei province was reduced from 60 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan, but this year only 2.21billion yuan was arranged. According to informed sources, the railway projects started in Hebei need to raise 30 billion yuan, plus the projects to be started soon, but the total capital demand is more than 50 billion yuan. When the local government financing platform was cleaned up, many financing measures were cancelled, and nearly half of the local construction funds were not implemented.

I remember that in April, a large number of domestic railway projects resumed work. Sheng Guangzu, Minister of Railways, said at the National Railway Construction Work Conference that the construction fund of more than 400 billion yuan this year has been basically solved. However, due to the shortage of funds, the railway construction has been delayed, which is really disappointing.

Although some people say that the delay of some railway projects is due to design changes and the increase of project budget, the author believes that the problem of financing difficulties in railway construction has existed for a long time and has not been solved at all. The design has only changed to a higher level, and the most important factor is the long-term backlog of financing for railway construction projects. Moreover, with the delay of railway construction project, the cost of raw materials and labor is rising, which eventually leads to the serious over-budget of the whole project, thus affecting the completion of the whole railway construction investment plan. Worst of all, recently, the State Council explicitly stipulated that local governments should not issue local government bonds. It seems that the financing problem of railway construction in the future may be more severe.

As we all know, railway construction is an important downstream industry in the steel industry. Generally speaking, it takes more than half a year for railway construction projects to generate steel demand. Now this process has been delayed, and the time to generate steel demand will also be delayed. It is estimated that this will cause a certain blow to the business mentality, and the possibility of steel demand picking up is weakening.

For the downstream industries in the steel market, it is not only the railway engineering projects that have financial problems, but also the construction of affordable housing that people are most concerned about. Recently, according to the audit report 20 1 1 by Liu Jiayi, Auditor-General of the National Audit Office, there are still some problems in some areas, such as insufficient fund raising for the construction of affordable housing, imperfect auditing and exit mechanisms, etc. In addition, it has been reported recently that among the 66 cities and counties audited, In 36 cities and counties, 531400 million yuan (equivalent to 14% of the amount that should be withdrawn or arranged less) has been withdrawn or arranged less, and there are 1 1 pen unfulfilled matching funds of 6120,000 yuan. It is no wonder that the construction process of affordable housing is difficult to accelerate, and it is no wonder that the demand for affordable housing is "nominal"! This most critical fund is either not in place or misappropriated. How to exert the demand for affordable housing?

On the whole, due to financial problems, infrastructure projects such as railways and affordable housing cannot speed up the process, and it is difficult for steel demand to make rapid efforts. Moreover, at present, it is in the off-season of high temperature and rainy steel market, and the demand cannot keep up with the production capacity. Therefore, it is expected that domestic steel prices will continue to weaken in the later period.