Understanding of population aging

According to the statistics released by the French Institute of Economic Statistics on June 6th, 2007, as of June 6th, 2007, the population of France was 6,339.2 1 000, including 2 1500 in Paris, and10 in Paris, including urban and suburban areas.

Statistics show that in 2006, the number of French freshmen was 830,000, the largest number of births in the last 20 years. In the same year, more than 530,000 people died, a decrease from the previous year. Coupled with new immigrants, the actual increase in population exceeded 390,000. The analysis shows that the average life expectancy in France has been extended, with men's average life expectancy exceeding 77 years and women reaching 84 years. The trend of aging population in France is still going on. By the end of 2006, the population over 65 was nearly103,000, accounting for 16% of the total population, which was higher than in previous years. The population under the age of 20 is nearly15.8 million, accounting for 25% of the total population, which is lower than in previous years.

Generally speaking, there are the following social factors:

(1) The aging of people. Due to the development of science, social progress and other factors, people's life expectancy is increasing day by day, which makes the proportion of the population reaching old age gradually increase in the total population. Demography usually thinks that the proportion of elderly people aged over 60 or over 65 reaches 10% or above 7% respectively, which is called population aging. This situation did not exist in ancient times and the Middle Ages, when people's life expectancy was generally short. From 65438 to 1970s, France became the first country with an aging population in the world. The industrialization of modern society has caused changes in social structure and family structure, and also shifted the obligation to support the elderly from family to society. The developed productivity of industrialized society makes the statistical data released by the Institute of Economic Statistics of the French Society for the Aged on June 16 show that as of June 1 day, 2007, the population of France was 63,392150,000, of which the population of the capital Paris was 2150,000, and the population of urban and suburban areas was150,000.

Statistics show that in 2006, the number of French freshmen was 830,000, the largest number of births in the last 20 years. In the same year, more than 530,000 people died, a decrease from the previous year. Coupled with new immigrants, the actual increase in population exceeded 390,000. The analysis shows that the average life expectancy in France has been extended, with men's average life expectancy exceeding 77 years and women reaching 84 years. The trend of aging population in France is still going on. By the end of 2006, the population over 65 was nearly103,000, accounting for 16% of the total population, which was higher than in previous years. The population under the age of 20 is nearly15.8 million, accounting for 25% of the total population, which is lower than in previous years.

Generally speaking, there are the following social factors:

(1) The aging of people. Due to the development of science, social progress and other factors, people's life expectancy is increasing day by day, which makes the proportion of the population reaching old age gradually increase in the total population. Demography usually thinks that the proportion of elderly people aged over 60 or over 65 reaches 10% or above 7% respectively, which is called population aging. This situation did not exist in ancient times and the Middle Ages, when people's life expectancy was generally short. From 65438 to 1970s, France became the first country with an aging population in the world. The industrialization of modern society has caused changes in social structure and family structure, and also shifted the obligation to support the elderly from family to society. The developed productive forces in industrialized society enable the elderly and society to accumulate and provide social insurance benefits and retirement annuities for the elderly. ③ The development of modern medicine provides a scientific guarantee for prolonging the life span of the elderly. With the development of urbanization and modern society, the social visibility of the elderly has become increasingly prominent, and they have become an attractive group in society.

China's aging population.

The reasons of population aging in China are: 1, the life expectancy is prolonged, 2, the aging caused by the decline of birth rate, and 3, the regional aging caused by population migration. Professor Zheng Xiaoying compared China's population aging with other countries in the world, and expounded the current situation and characteristics of China's population aging. According to statistics, the main characteristics of China's population aging are as follows: First, the population aging reached its peak ahead of schedule. The second is the aging of the population under the condition of underdeveloped social economy. Third, through the aging stage of the population under multiple pressures.

According to the relevant regulations of the United Nations, when the proportion of the elderly over 65 years old in the total population exceeds 7%, or the population over 60 years old exceeds 10%, a country is called an "elderly country". At present, about 60 countries and regions in the world 190 have entered the "old age type". The problem of population aging has attracted worldwide attention, and all countries regard it as an extremely important task to deal with the current problem of population aging.

Global population aging trend: 1, the population is aging day by day, and EU countries are facing challenges. In a speech to trade unionists in Brussels, European Commission President Prodi said that by 2025, the number of elderly people over 60 in EU countries will increase by 37 million. 2. According to the research report published by the British magazine Nature, by 2070, the total population of the world will reach the highest value of 9 billion, and the problem of aging at the end of the century is serious.

Some netizens' answers

There are many reasons for China's aging population and its acceleration, but there are two main and direct reasons: First, the low fertility rate caused by the long-term implementation of the family planning policy. In order to control the excessive population growth and reduce the pressure of population on economic and social development, China began to implement the basic national policy of family planning in the 1980s, which greatly reduced the fertility level of the whole society. On the other hand, the rapid economic growth, scientific and technological progress, the improvement of people's medical conditions and the improvement of living standards have made amazing achievements in human health and longevity, and the life expectancy of the population has been greatly extended. The result of the above factors is that the proportion of young people in the whole society is further reduced, while the proportion of old people is relatively increased, which is finally manifested in the rapid growth and increase of the proportion of middle-aged and old people in the whole society, that is, the early arrival of an aging society.

Not just because people live longer and longer! But also because of China's family planning! In Mao Zedong's time, almost every family had six or seven children! What about now? What's more, a family only needs 1? Is this a joke? A while ago, the population increased sharply, but now I think of compression. The elderly population will be much younger than the young population in the future. What will it be like? This should be the root of China's aging population!

Research Report on the Forecast of Population Aging Development Trend in China (full text)

2 1 century is the age of population aging. At present, all developed countries in the world have entered an aging society, and many developing countries are entering or will enter an aging society. From 65438 to 0999, China also entered the aging society, which is one of the developing countries that entered the aging society earlier. China is the country with the largest elderly population in the world, accounting for one fifth of the total elderly population in the world. China's population aging is not only a problem of China itself, but also related to the process of global population aging, which has attracted worldwide attention. In order to find out the basic situation of China's elderly population and aging development, and grasp the basic national conditions of China's aging problem in the future, the Office of the National Working Committee on Ageing has carried out a special forecast study on the development trend of China's elderly population. The basic situation is as follows.

First, the pressure of China's aging population has begun to appear.

At present, there are 2 1 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China that have become aging areas. During the 22 years from the third census in 1982 to 2004, the elderly population in China increased by 3.02 million annually, with an average annual growth rate of 2.85%, which was higher than the total population growth rate of 1. 17%. By the end of 2004, China's elderly population aged 60 and above had reached 654.38+43 billion, accounting for 654.38+00.97% of the total population. The aging level exceeds the national average in Shanghai (18.48%), Tianjin (13.75%), Jiangsu (13.75%), Beijing (13.66%) and Zhejiang (10). Shandong (12.3 1%), Sichuan (1 1.59%), Hunan (1 1.5 1%) and Anhui (1%).

The aging population has brought a profound impact on China's economic, social, political and cultural development, and the demand for old-age care, medical care and social services is also increasing.

The burden of old-age security is getting heavier and heavier. In 2004, the total expenditure of basic old-age insurance in China reached 350.2 billion yuan, up by 65.5% compared with 2000, and the subsidy expenditure of the central government for basic old-age insurance climbed to 52.2 billion yuan. Retirement and resignation expenses also show a trend of soaring year by year. The government, enterprises and society all feel that the pressure of old-age security is obviously increasing.

The pressure of medical and health expenditure for the elderly is increasing. According to estimates, the medical and health resources consumed by the elderly are generally 3-5 times that of other people. In 2004, the expenditure of the national basic medical insurance fund reached 86.2 billion yuan, accounting for 75.5% of the fund's income, an increase of 3 1.6% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 3.5 percentage points faster than the fund's income. The rapid aging of population is one of the important reasons for the rapid growth of basic medical insurance fund expenditure.

The demand for serving the aging society is expanding rapidly. At present, due to the social transformation, the transformation of government functions, the weakening of family pension function and other reasons, the development of pension service industry is seriously lagging behind, and it is difficult to meet the service needs of the huge elderly population, especially the rapidly growing "empty nest" elderly, the very old and the sick elderly. Take the old-age care institutions and the number of beds as examples. At present, there are 38,000 social welfare institutions for the elderly in China, with an average of 8.6 beds per 1,000 elderly people, which is far from the average level of 50-70 beds per 1,000 elderly people in developed countries. Other services such as life care and spiritual comfort for the elderly also have the problem of slow development, which cannot meet the growing needs of the elderly.

Compared with cities, the pressure of rural aging is greater. In 2000, there were 85.57 million elderly people in rural areas, accounting for 65.82% of the total elderly population, and the degree of aging in rural areas was 65.438+0.24 percentage points higher than that in cities and towns. At the same time, the social endowment insurance system has not been established in most rural areas, the new rural cooperative medical system is still in the pilot stage, and farmers' pension and medical care lack the necessary social security. With the acceleration of population aging process, the pressure of old-age care and medical care in rural areas will be more prominent than that in cities and towns, especially in western and poverty-stricken areas.

China is in a critical period of social transformation, and various reforms have entered a crucial stage. Many systems have yet to be established and improved, and the pressure of old-age care, medical care and social services has long been lurking. The aging population only highlights these pressures. At present, these pressures have just begun to appear. With the rapid development of population aging, the impact of these pressures will be more profound and universal.

Second, the development trend of population aging in China in 2 1 century

China will be an irreversible aging society in 2 1 century. From 200 1 to 2 100, the development trend of population aging in China can be divided into three stages:

The first stage, 200 1 to 2020, is a stage of rapid aging. At present, China will add 5.96 million elderly people every year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.28%, which greatly exceeds the average annual growth rate of 0.66% of the total population, and the process of population aging will be obviously accelerated. By 2020, the elderly population will reach 248 million, and the aging level will reach 17. 17%, among which the elderly population aged 80 and above will reach 30.67 million, accounting for 12.37% of the elderly population.

The second stage, 202 1 to 2050, is to accelerate the aging stage. With the second baby boomer population entering the old age after the founding of New China in 1960s and mid-1970s, the number of elderly people in China began to accelerate, with an average annual increase of 6.2 million. At the same time, as the total population gradually achieves zero growth and begins to grow negatively, the population aging will be further accelerated. By 2023, the elderly population will increase to 270 million, equivalent to the number of children aged 0- 14. By 2050, the total number of elderly people will exceed 400 million, and the aging level will reach over 30%, among which the number of elderly people aged 80 and over will reach 94.48 million, accounting for 2 1.78% of the elderly population.

The third stage, from 205 1 to 2 100, is a stable stage of severe aging. In 20051year, the elderly population in China will reach a peak of 437 million, about twice the number of children. At this stage, the scale of the elderly population will be stable at 300-400 million, the aging level will be basically stable at about 3 1%, and the proportion of the elderly aged 80 and above in the total elderly population will remain at 25-30%, entering a highly aging platform.

Compared with other countries, China's aging population has the following main characteristics:

First of all, the number of elderly people is huge.

At the end of 2004, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above in China was 654.38+4.3 billion, which will reach 200 million in 2065.438+04, 300 million in 2026, over 400 million in 2037, reaching the maximum in 2056.5438+0, and has remained at the scale of 300-400 million since then. According to the prediction of the United Nations, in the first half of the 20th century, China has been the country with the largest elderly population in the world, accounting for one fifth of the world's total elderly population, while in the second half of the 20th century, China remained the second largest country with the largest elderly population after India.

Second, aging is developing rapidly.

The proportion of the elderly over 65 in the total population has increased from 7% to 14%, and it has taken more than 45 years in most developed countries, including France 130, Sweden 85, Australia and the United States 79. It only takes 27 years for China to complete this process, and it will maintain a high growth rate for a long time to come, making it one of the fastest aging countries.

Third, regional development is uneven.

The development of population aging in China has obvious regional ladder characteristics from east to west. The economically developed coastal areas in the east are obviously faster than the economically underdeveloped areas in the west. Compared with Shanghai (1979) and Ningxia (20 12), the time span is as long as 33 years.

Fourth, the urban-rural inversion is remarkable.

The course of population aging in developed countries shows that the level of urban population aging is generally higher than that in rural areas, but the situation in China is different. At present, the level of aging in rural areas is higher than that in cities by 1.24 percentage points, and this upside-down situation between urban and rural areas will continue until 2040. By the second half of 2 1 century, the level of urban aging will exceed that of rural areas, and the gap will gradually widen. This is one of the important characteristics of China's aging population, which is different from developed countries.

Fifth, there are more elderly women than men.

At present, there are 4.64 million more women than men in the elderly population, which will reach a peak in 2049, with an increase of 26.45 million. 2/kloc-0 in the second half of the century, the extra female elderly population basically stabilized at1700-190,000. It should be pointed out that 50-70% of the newly-increased female elderly population is 80 years old and above.

Sixth, aging is ahead of modernization.

Developed countries entered the aging society under the condition of basically realizing modernization, which belongs to the synchronization of getting rich before getting old or getting rich before getting old, while China entered the aging society ahead of time without realizing modernization and underdeveloped economy, which belongs to getting old before getting rich. Developed countries have entered an aging society, and the per capita GDP is generally above $5,000 to 1 10,000. At present, China's per capita GDP is only 1000, which still belongs to the ranks of low-income countries, and its economic strength to deal with the aging population is still relatively weak.

According to the prediction and analysis of the development trend of population aging in China, the following conclusions can be drawn:

(1) China's aging population will be accompanied by 2 1 century.

Since 1999 entered the aging society in China, the number of elderly people has been increasing and the degree of aging has been deepening. Until 2 100, the total elderly population was still as high as 3180,000, accounting for 3 1.09% of the total population. Population aging will accompany 2 1 century.

(2) 2030-2050 is the most severe period of population aging in China.

On the one hand, at this stage, the number and aging level of the elderly population will rapidly increase to an unprecedented level, and the scale of the elderly population will reach its peak. On the other hand, after 2030, the total dependency ratio of the population will rise sharply with the rapid rise of the dependency ratio of the elderly, and eventually exceed 50%. The "golden age of population" with low dependency ratio conducive to economic development will end in 2033. Generally speaking, from 2030 to 2050, the total dependency ratio of China population and the dependency ratio of the elderly population will remain at 60-70% and 40-50% respectively, which is the most severe period of population aging.

(3) Serious population aging and aging will become increasingly prominent.

After 50 years of rapid growth, by the second half of 2 1 century, China's population size, aging degree and aging degree of the elderly population will remain basically stable at a high level. Although the total number of elderly people has declined, it will remain above 300 million, with an aging degree of about 3 1%, and the number of elderly people aged 80 and over will remain at 80-90 million, with an aging level of 20 million.

(D) China will face the dual pressures of aging population and overpopulation.

Overpopulation is the basic national condition of China. Because of adhering to the basic national policy of family planning, the growth momentum of the total population has been effectively controlled. However, at present, the total population is still as high as 65.438+0.3 billion, and it is expected to reach the maximum population of 65.438+0.465 billion by 2030. The pressure of overpopulation will exist for a long time. At the same time, China has entered an aging society, which is a new and important national condition. The pressure of population aging has begun to appear and will continue to increase with the development of aging. Throughout the 2 1 century, these two pressures will always be intertwined, which will bring severe challenges to China's economic and social development.

Three. Problems and suggestions

The history of population aging in the world shows that population aging will have a great impact on all aspects of human life. In the economic field, the aging population will have an impact on economic growth, savings, investment and consumption, labor market, pensions, taxes and so on. On the social side, the aging population will affect social welfare, medical system, family composition, living arrangements, housing and immigration. Politically and culturally, the aging population will also have different degrees of influence.

China is a populous country and still in the primary stage of socialism. Its per capita income level belongs to the ranks of lower-middle countries. The urban-rural dual structure has not been fundamentally reversed, and the level of economic development and comprehensive national strength are still relatively backward. There are still many major problems to be solved in realizing modernization. Under this basic national condition, the aging population will inevitably bring some new contradictions and pressures, which will pose new challenges to economic and social development: in establishing a social security system that meets the requirements of the socialist market economy, the social security pressures such as pension and medical care are enormous; In establishing a social service system for the elderly to meet the needs of the huge elderly population, there is great pressure to speed up the rational allocation of social resources, increase service facilities for the elderly and improve the service network for the elderly; In dealing with intergenerational relations, there is great pressure to solve the huge conflict of interests between the elderly and working-age people; In coordinating the harmonious development of urban and rural areas, there is great pressure to solve the aging problem in rural areas, especially in the central and western regions and poverty-stricken areas. At the same time, China government and society must pay huge costs to adjust the consumption structure, industrial structure and social management system. To adapt to the great changes in the age structure of the population.

2 1 century, the strategic goal of China's social and economic development is to achieve a comprehensive well-off society in 2020, basically realize modernization in 2050, and realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation after 2050. To achieve this grand goal, we must actively respond to the severe challenge of the rapid development of population aging. In 2020, there are still many contradictions and problems to be solved whether 248 million elderly people can enter a well-off society in an all-round way simultaneously; In 2050, whether China can bear the enormous pressure of the needs of more than 400 million elderly people while basically realizing modernization is a serious issue. In a word, the severe challenges brought by the aging population are related to whether China can build a well-off society in an all-round way and realize modernization smoothly, and to the process of building a harmonious socialist society.

In view of the profound influence of population aging on all aspects of human life, since the first World Assembly on Ageing in 1982, the international community has paid close attention to the issue of aging and put forward a series of strategies and countermeasures. In 2002, the United Nations convened the Second World Assembly on Ageing, urging governments of all countries, especially developing countries, to adopt strong coping strategies and countermeasures from now on, otherwise they will lose strategic opportunities and pay a huge price.

The challenge of China's aging population is getting more and more severe, and 2030-2050 is about to enter the most severe period. According to the timetable, the preparation time left for us is only a short period of 25 years. As the United Nations and relevant international organizations have warned, the population phenomenon is a long-term event, and sufficient progress must be made to solve the population problem. At present, China's ideological, material and institutional preparations for population aging are still insufficient. In the next 25 years, it is not only very urgent, but also very stressful to prepare for the peak of population aging in all directions.

Based on the above analysis, our suggestions are as follows:

1. An aging society is an important national condition of China in the 2nd1century.

China has entered and will be in an aging society for a long time. Governments at all levels, relevant departments and the whole society must fully understand the seriousness of the challenge of population aging, establish the awareness of aging, and enhance the sense of urgency and consciousness to deal with the challenges of population aging and aging society. When studying and formulating economic and social development strategies, we should start from the basic national conditions of an aging society and incorporate the challenges of an aging society into China's future development strategy.

We should make full use of the 25-year period of strategic opportunities to prepare for an aging society.

The next 25 years will be the key preparation period for dealing with an aging society and the only period of strategic opportunities, especially during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. Governments at all levels should fully understand and grasp the challenges and opportunities of an aging society, incorporate solving various contradictions and problems in an aging society into the overall development strategy of building a well-off society in an all-round way and socialist modernization, formulate development plans, improve laws and regulations, adjust social and economic policies, and make good preparations for dealing with an aging society. It is necessary to formulate medium-and long-term strategic plans to meet the challenges of an aging society. Based on the current situation, while improving policies, increasing investment and accelerating the development of the cause of aging, we should improve and perfect the working mechanism for aging that adapts to the national conditions of the world's largest elderly population.

3. Accelerate the construction of social security system for the elderly.

Constructing a perfect social security system for the elderly is an institutional arrangement to fundamentally solve the increasingly prominent medical problems of the elderly in an aging society. While improving the urban social endowment insurance and medical insurance system, we will vigorously promote the medical assistance system for the urban and rural poor. Under the new situation of building a new socialist countryside, efforts should be made to improve the rural five-guarantee system, popularize the new rural cooperative medical system, establish the minimum living security system for rural residents, and pilot the social endowment insurance system in places where conditions permit. Before the arrival of the most serious period of population aging in 2030, a social security system for the elderly will be basically established in urban and rural areas of China, which meets the requirements of China's national conditions and the socialist market economic system, and the problems of urban and rural old-age care and medical care will be properly solved.

4. Vigorously develop the aging industry.

Developing the aging industry is an important content to cope with the aging society, meet the needs of the huge elderly population and promote the coordinated development of economy and society. It is necessary to formulate a development plan for the aged care service industry, implement the state's support and protection policies for the aged care service industry, and establish a development management system for the aged care service industry. Taking urban and rural communities as the basis for the development of the aged care service industry, we will cultivate the aged care intermediary organizations and professional service teams in the aging society, so that the aged care service industry will develop greatly before 2030. At the same time, vigorously develop consumer goods for the elderly and cultivate the market for elderly products.

5. Strengthen the forward-looking and strategic research on the aging society.

The challenge of an aging society is unprecedented. Developing countries, especially big countries like China, have no successful experience to learn from in how to meet the challenges of an aging society without realizing modernization. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the characteristics and laws of an aging society and build an aging cause with China characteristics. Create conditions, establish comprehensive national research institutions, organize researchers in related disciplines, regard population aging and aging society as major national macro-strategic issues, and set up projects to tackle key problems, so as to provide scientific basis for coping with the grim situation of population aging.

Three, the new century to solve the problem of population aging in China.

To solve the problem of population aging in China, we must start from the basic national conditions of China and find an active and effective way. At present, we need to start from the following aspects:

(1) On the basis of a correct understanding of China's population development situation, we should widely mobilize all social forces, so that people can correctly understand the impact of population aging on social development, and make mental preparations for solving all kinds of elderly population problems and welcoming the arrival of the aging peak wave.

(2) Laws and regulations must be formulated to protect the legitimate rights and interests of the elderly, so that the democratic rights, personal rights and social status of the elderly can be protected and respected, and legislative and ethical preparations should be made.

(3) Establish and improve institutions for the aged, actively organize scientific research on the aged, and formulate the "Outline of Countermeasures for an Aging Society" suitable for China's national conditions, so as to provide theoretical guidance and scientific basis for effectively solving various social problems brought about by aging.

(4) On the basis of developing social productive forces and prospering socialist economy, reform and improve the urban and rural old-age insurance system, and gradually establish a set of living security system for the elderly with a high degree of socialization that is suitable for China's social and economic structure. Prepare for the arrival of an age-structured society from the aspects of material security and spiritual life.

(5) Organize the elderly to stand on their own feet, make full use of the middle-aged and elderly labor force, develop the human resources of the elderly, especially those who can still work after retirement at the age of 60-65, and give full play to their enthusiasm. For rural areas, it is natural for the elderly to continue to engage in labor production. For urban workers, ensuring the re-employment of the elderly is conducive to reducing the burden of supporting the elderly, and it can also make the elderly feel "doing something", which is conducive to their physical and mental health.

(6) Based on China's basic national conditions and actual population situation, choose the optimized population target to adapt population development to economic development. Formulate and adopt a scientific birth control plan, choose the most favorable opportunity to appropriately adjust the birth level and adjust the population structure, and gradually realize the goal of stabilizing the population. Population aging is a phenomenon in the process of population age structure transformation and an inevitable process of objective development, which shows that population aging exists objectively, so population aging itself is not good or bad. Facing the challenge of aging population, we can neither turn a blind eye nor talk about the "old" color change. Any pessimistic and blindly optimistic attitude is wrong. We should face up to the problem of population aging, treat it with a positive attitude, meet the challenge of population aging with scientific countermeasures, and do our best to avoid or reduce the adverse impact and impact of population aging on China's economic and social development from policy formulation to social recognition to personal efforts.