Analyze the characteristics of the aging process of the world population.

In 2002, the global population over 60 years old reached 606 million, and it is growing much faster than the total population. 1950 There are about 200 million people over 60 in the world, 1970, 300 million, and in 2000, 600 million. According to United Nations estimates, it will reach 654.38+billion in 2020, and there will be nearly 2 billion elderly people in the world in 2050. In the 20 years from 1950 to 1970, the elderly population increased by 1 100 million, while in the 20 years from 2000 to 2020, the elderly population increased by 400 million. 1970 In the 30 years from 2000, the elderly population will double on the basis of 300 million, and in the 30 years from 2020 to 2050, the world elderly population will double on the basis of 100 billion. 1950-2050, the global population will increase by 0.87 percentage points annually, and the elderly population will increase by 2.38 percentage points annually.

In 2002, the vast majority of the world's elderly population lived in Asia (54%), followed by Europe (24%). The elderly population aged 60 and above in China is 65.438+34 billion, accounting for 65.438+0.5 (265.438+0.34%) of the world's elderly population and 2/5(39.7%) of the Asian elderly population. In 2050, according to the estimation of the United Nations, the elderly population in Asia will increase to nearly 63%, while the proportion in Europe (1 1%) will be reduced by half, approaching Africa (10%) and Latin America (9%).

In the next 50 years, the regional distribution of the elderly population will change significantly. In 2002, 60% (62.55%) of the elderly population lived in developing areas. By 2050, the number of elderly people living in this area will reach 80% (79.88%), an increase of 17 percentage points in the past half century.

From 2002 to 2050, the elderly population in Africa will rise from 422 1 10,000 to 205 million, an increase of 3.9 times; Asia will rise from 338 million to 654.38+22.7 million, an increase of 2.6 times; Europe will increase from 1.48 billion to 22 1 billion, an increase of 50%; Latin America and the Caribbean will increase from 43.68 million to 1.8 1 billion, an increase of 3. 1 times; North America will increase from 52.32 million to1.1.90 billion, an increase of 1.3 times; Oceania will increase from 4.25 million to 6.5438+0099 million, an increase of 654.38+0.6 times.

2. The degree of population aging

Population aging has become a global phenomenon. In 2002, 68 countries and regions in the world 186 have entered the "old age type". At present, there are 1 elderly people in every 10 population in the world. It is estimated that by 2050, there will be 1 elderly people in every five people, and by 2 150 years, there will be 1 elderly people in every three people. The proportion of developed regions is much higher than that of developing regions. In 2002, the elderly population in developed countries accounted for 1/5(20%) of the total population, while the elderly population in developing regions only accounted for 8% of the total population, and the elderly population in least developed countries only accounted for 5% of the total population. Italy is the country with the largest aging population in the world, with the proportion of the elderly population reaching 25%, followed by Germany, Greece and Japan-24%, and Sweden also reached a high level of 23%.

By 2050, the middle-aged and elderly population in developed areas will account for 1/3(33%) of the total population. However, the pace of population aging in developing regions is faster, and its proportion will also rise to 19%. However, the process of population aging in the least developed countries is still very slow, and the proportion of the elderly population has only risen to 9%. By then, Spain will become the country with the highest aging population, with the proportion of the elderly population reaching 44%, followed by Slovenia, Italy and Japan, and the proportion of the elderly population will increase to 42%.

3. Population aging

The elderly population itself is aging. 1950-2000, the global elderly population over 80 years old increased five times, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3%, which greatly exceeded the average speed of the population over 60 years old (2.2%). 1950, there were140,000 elderly people in the world, accounting for 6.7% of the total elderly population. In 2000, the elderly population reached 69 million, accounting for about 1/3( 1 1.4%) of the total elderly population. By 2050, the number of elderly people will be about 380 million, accounting for 1/5( 19.3%) of the total elderly population. The proportion of the elderly population in developed areas rose from 8.9% in 1950 to 16.0% in 2000. In 2050, 1 out of every four elderly people over 60 years old will be elderly (28.6%). The developing regions increased from 4.8% in 1950 to 8.6% in 2000, and will further increase to 17.0% in 2050.

At present, the population in northern Europe is the most aging, and 20% of the population over 60 years old is over 80 years old. Western Europe followed closely, reaching 17%. The country with the highest proportion is Norway (24%), followed by Sweden (23%), the United States (2 1%), Barbados (2 1%), the United Kingdom (20%) and Denmark (20%), and all the elderly over 60 years old reach or exceed1.

In 2050, Western Europe will be the region with the highest degree of population aging. Among the population over 60 years old, 1/3(33%) will be the elderly, and Northern Europe (3 1%) and Southern Europe (30%) will be second only to Western Europe. By then, Switzerland in Europe, Japan and Singapore in Asia will all become the countries with the largest elderly population, with the proportion of the elderly population as high as 36%, and the proportion of the elderly population in Germany (35%), the English Channel Islands (34%) and Italy (33%) will also be as high as 30%, that is, three out of every 10 elderly people will be over 80 years old.

Centenarians are the fastest growing among the elderly population. Before 1975, there were less than 1000 centenarians in the world. In 2000, the number of centenarians in the world reached 6.5438+0.8 million, of which about 6.5438+0/4 (6.5438+0.465.438+0.00 million) were in developed regions, and only 40,000 were in developing regions. It is predicted that from 2000 to 2050, the average annual growth rate of centenarians will be 5.94%, and the population size will increase by 1.5 times, reaching 32 1.9 million, including 2 1.84 million in developed areas and 0/.35 million in developing areas.

4. Life expectancy of the elderly population

The life span of the whole world will be significantly prolonged. Life expectancy at birth has increased from 29 years in 1950 to 66 years at present. Among those who live to 60 years old, the life expectancy of male population is 65,438+07 years old, and that of female population is 20 years old. However, the mortality rate varies greatly from country to country. In 2002, the male and female population aged 60 in the least developed countries are expected to live another 65,438+05 years and 65,438+06 years respectively, while the male and female population aged 60 in the developed countries is expected to reach 65,438+08 years and 23 years respectively.

For male elderly people, the life expectancy of Japanese elderly people is the longest, with 27 years at the age of 60, which is 7 years higher than the world average. Followed by France-26 years old, countries with life expectancy of 25 years include Sweden, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Australia, Guadeloupe and Martinik in Latin America.

There is little difference among female elderly people in most countries, which is up to 3 years higher than the world average, and the life expectancy at 60 years old reaches 2 1 year.

Among the world's elderly population, the life expectancy of men is lower than that of women, with a gender difference of 3 years, which is quite different between developed regions (5 years old) and developing regions (3 years old). The gender difference in the least developed countries is only 1 year. There is no difference in life expectancy between men and women in Qatar. The difference in life expectancy between women and men is at most 6 years. Four in Europe (Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, France), Africa 1, especially in reunion island.

5. Gender composition of the elderly population

Most of the elderly population are women. Because the life expectancy of women is longer than that of men, there are 8 1 men for every 100 women in the elderly population, while there are only 53 men for every 100 women in the elderly population. This ratio (sex ratio -7 1 male100 female) in developed regions is lower than that in developing regions (88 male/100 female), because there is a big gender difference in life expectancy in developed regions.

The regional differences in the gender structure of the elderly population are very significant. The sex ratio of the elderly population in Eastern Europe is very low, only 68, and the lowest is Latvia, only 5 1, that is, the sex ratio of the elderly population is 1:2. Russia (53), Belarus (54) and Estonia (55) in Eastern Europe are also close to this ratio. In many countries, the sex ratio is above 100, even more than 200. Among the elderly population in the United Arab Emirates (287), Qatar (265) and Kuwait (2 12), the ratio of male to female is contrary to that in Eastern Europe, exceeding 2: 1.

6. The marital status of the elderly population

Whether male or female, the rate of widowhood increases with age. However, most male elderly people have spouses, and even the number of male elderly people over 75 years old has exceeded that of widowers. Older men are more likely to have a spouse than older women. In 2002, 78% of the elderly men in the world had a spouse, while only 44% of the elderly women. The main reason for most widowed elderly people is widowhood. Women are more likely to live without a spouse because they live longer and younger than their husbands.

In the least developed countries, there are more elderly men with spouses, reaching 85%. The least is Barbados in Latin America, where only 54% of male elderly people have spouses.

In the least developed countries, the proportion of elderly women with spouses is relatively low, only 40%, and in Central Africa, the proportion is 35%. Among the elderly women, Niger has the lowest proportion of spouses, and only 25% of women still have husbands. Almost half of the elderly women in Oceania have spouses (49%). The luckiest are the elderly women in Macedonia, 60% of whom still have husbands.

In the elderly group, the number of widows exceeds the number of spouses. Data from Indonesia and South Korea show that the widowed rate of women over 75 is over 80%. In some other countries, the proportion is over 75%. The widowed rate in most developed countries is below 70%. In 1985, the figure in Japan is 78%, while that in men over 75 is 28%.

7. Potential support burden of working-age population

Demography uses the index of "potential dependency ratio" to reflect the influence of population aging, that is, every 1 65-year-old population is calculated to show the potential dependency burden of working-age population. From 1950 to 2002, the potential dependency ratio of the world population decreased, and the working-age population corresponding to each elderly person decreased from 12 to 9, and continued to decline. By the middle of this century, the potential dependency ratio will drop to 4, that is, every elderly person will have four working-age people. The potential dependency ratio is of great significance to the social security system, especially to the traditional social security system, because in this system, the current working population bears the pension of the current retired population.

The potential dependency ratio in developing regions is at a high level (12) and will drop to a very low level by 2050 (5). The current level in developed areas is already very low (5), and will further drop to a lower level by the middle of this century. At present, the level of the least developed countries is as high as 17, and it will only drop by seven places in the next half century, reaching 10, far higher than the level of most countries in the world.

8. Statutory retirement age

In developed areas, the legal retirement age for men in more than half countries is 65 years old and above, while the legal retirement age for women is mostly 55-59 years old. In developing regions, the standard of retirement age is often lower than that in developed regions. Generally, men are 60-64 years old, while women are all below 64 years old. The difference of retirement age standards in different regions may reflect the difference of life expectancy in different regions, and in developing countries, life expectancy is even lower.

Denmark, Iceland and Norway have the highest legal retirement age, both men and women are 67 years old. These are all Nordic countries, where the life expectancy of the elderly population is relatively high. For example, in the latter two countries, the life expectancy of 60-year-old men is 2 1 year, and that of women is 24 years old. The lowest legal retirement age is Solomon Islands in the Pacific Ocean, where both men and women are only 40 years old, while Kiribati in the Pacific Ocean and Swaziland in South Africa are both set at 50 years old.

9. Economic activities of the elderly population

In developed areas, the participation rate of elderly workers is often low. Among the male population over 60 years old, the economically active population accounts for 265,438+0%, while that in developing regions is 50%. In most developed countries, 10% of elderly women are engaged in economic activities, while in developing countries, this proportion reaches 19%. The high participation rate of the elderly in developing countries is due to the limited coverage of the retirement system there, which can only provide a small part of retirement income.

The economic activities of the elderly population in different regions vary greatly. In the least developed countries, the labor participation rate of the elderly population of both sexes is very high, reaching 74% for men and 42% for women.

In Hungary, the labor participation rate of male and female elderly population is very low, only 2% and 1% respectively. The proportion of the elderly in Belgium, Austria, France and the Netherlands participating in economic activities is also very low, ranging from 5-7% for men to 1-4% for women. Women in Georgia, Qatar and Brunei are no longer economically active after the age of 60.