The national urban survey unemployment rate is 5.3%. What does this figure mean?

Everyone says that the unemployment rate is high now,

I don't believe it.

Therefore, adhering to the spirit of seeking truth from facts.

And the rigorous style of no right to speak without investigation.

We made an extensive investigation.

I asked my colleagues around me first.

They said they were not unemployed.

What if the survey data is not representative?

So, I went to ask the sales staff in the store again.

Restaurant waiter, grandma is sweeping the floor by the roadside.

They all said that they were not unemployed.

Still uphold the concept of believing in the country and peace.

So, I went to the police station and asked my uncle,

They also said that they were not unemployed.

Learn more about the data of the general public,

Finally, we came to the conclusion that,

No one is unemployed at all.

But the data will inevitably be biased,

Therefore, adhering to the rigorous style,

We came to the conclusion that,

Almost no one is unemployed,

The number of unemployed people is completely negligible.

For those who are extremely unemployed.

You can rent out your idle villa,

Or fly your own aircraft carrier to send guests,

Or drive your own east wind to deliver the express.

Can live a very nourishing life.

Speaking of which, you still say the unemployment rate is high?

I don't believe it.

1. I conducted a survey on my colleagues according to the statistical principles around me, and their employment rate was as high as 100%.

Even the security uncle team downstairs, the employment rate is 100%.

The employment rate of convenience bee shop assistants downstairs is also 100%.

"Sleepless Sea" closed down recently. The reason for the shortage of shop assistants is that the waiting recruitment rate is 100%, and the talent gap is huge. What you can see in this survey is watching it with a lively mood.

The scope of flexible employment is too large.

As for creating new jobs, it is nothing more than changing a bottle of new water and changing the soup without changing the medicine.

If consumption can be maintained, the unemployment rate will at least not rise. But we look at expectations in combination with medium and long-term loans.

Investment-Judging from the medium and long-term loans of social financing, it rebounded slightly after the sharp decline in social financing in July, but the overall situation remained the same.

It is weak. In other words, the willingness of enterprises to lend is still not great, and the expectation of economic prospects is not optimistic.

Second, from this wave of export data, the logic of the decline in total world demand, which has been said at the beginning, began to enter the official redemption period. Our country is right.

The export growth rate of the United States has turned sharply negative, which is the main drag on the export growth rate. May 1967 was supported by price factors, but the export share was not.

Go up. Export environment in the second half of the year: demand goes down and prices go down. These two factors will push the export data down.

As for this impact on the economy, it will not have much impact at present, because it is still a trade surplus trade.

The surplus was $79.39 billion.

For trade data, the most direct impact on financial markets is surplus and deficit. The deficit represents the actual outflow of funds, and the surplus represents

Actual inflow of funds.

To sum up, the data in August is good, but no matter how you look at it, you can't see the sustainable driving force. And the storm in the second half of the year

The factors are also complicated. Mainly concentrated in three dimensions: the real estate downturn, the European energy crisis, and the Fed's interest rate hike.

Third, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 0. 1% month-on-month, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from last month; Second-tier cities are new

The sales price of commercial housing decreased by 0.2% compared with last month; The sales prices of new commercial housing in third-tier cities decreased respectively from the previous month.

0.4%, the decline was 0. 1 percentage point higher than the previous one. The price and sales of new commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points from last month. second-tier city

The sales price of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 1.0% year-on-year, which was 0.5 percentage points higher than that of last month. Sales of new commercial housing in third-tier cities

The selling price decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the decrease rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that of last month.

According to the monitoring of the Central Reference Institute, the total non-bank financing of real estate enterprises was 6339 1 billion yuan, down 55.7% year-on-year. Among them, the total non-bank financing of real estate enterprises was 63.25 billion yuan, down 28.2% from the previous month and 46.9% from the same period last year.

From the perspective of financing structure, the scale of credit debt accounts for 44.5%, overseas debt accounts for 0%, trust financing accounts for 65,438+04.8%, and ABS is integrated.

Capital accounts for 40.7%. Among them, the real estate industry credit bond financing decreased by 43.0% year-on-year and 45.2% quarter-on-quarter; The remaining financing channels

Compared with last month, there is little change. ?

Fourth, look at the data of banking financial institutions. TF Securities's research report shows that the balance of real estate loans including development loans and personal housing loans is 53. 1 1 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2%.

Since then, the specific growth rate has continued to decline. Correspondingly, the proportion of real estate loans in the stock loans of banking financial institutions also declined slightly, from 28.7% at the end of the 20th century.

China dropped to 27.4%, and 22 years later it dropped to 25.7%. The growth rate of real estate loans continued to decline, and the credit funds of the real estate industry

The resource occupation is obviously reduced.

Further, in the first half of the year, the proportion of real estate investment dropped to 4.9%, 2 1.

18.9%, down 14% year-on-year, with a large decline.

The above data proves that the three red lines and centralized loan management system have firmly curbed the real estate bubble, and at the same time, funds outside the market have been

Expect to be controlled.

It can be seen that the local government is the most active in calling on everyone to buy a house, and the central government has also relaxed in buying a house, and the interest rate has also been given.

Loose. But residents just don't buy it. This is mainly related to the psychological expectation of buying up and not buying down.

At present, it is mainly the financing party or the card that is relatively dead. All the people who can get the money are state-owned real estate enterprises and very few high-quality private enterprises. For example, a sum of 654.38+05 billion yuan was issued by Longhu, the first private housing enterprise bond fully guaranteed by China Credit Promotion Investment Co., Ltd..

The medium-term notes have been issued for 3 years, and the inquiry range in coupon rate is 3.00%-4.30%.

As for the next trend of real estate, first consider the reality from the policy side. The general direction of the whole country is already the bottom of the policy. As for the bottom of the market, I mainly look at one.

Second tier cities. In the third, fourth and fifth tier cities that rely on shed reform, the market is out of reach.

As for some people, I wonder whether the management will once again stimulate the economy by liberalizing real estate. Personally, I think it is unlikely, but there is still.

Keeping an eye on financing is the right policy. Finally, remember that housing is not speculation. If you are speculating, put the idea down.