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The introduction ends in February. In the domestic pig market, the pig price trend is strong, and the market stage bullish sentiment is high. In particular, the official purchasing and storage news boosted. In the short term, the pressure on farmers to lose money has been greatly reduced, and some pig enterprises have entered the profit cycle one after another! However, in flour enterprises, due to the serious loss of downstream goods and poor demand, the price of raw grain has increased, resulting in the continuous decline of flour and additional products, and the profits of some flour enterprises are worrying and the prospects are unknown.

For incubators, due to the high price of eggs, the cost of incubating enterprises has risen sharply, and the risks in the market outlook have intensified, and many incubators are in an embarrassing situation. So, what has happened to the market?

Pig market:

The latest data shows that on February 23rd, the national average price of live pigs remained at 15.6 1 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan from yesterday. Compared with the low value of 13.87 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month, the price of live pigs rose by 12.5% this month, the center of gravity of live pigs moved up, and the number of live pigs was 65438+.

It is understood that previously, the head pig enterprise Muyuan disclosed that the total cost of pig fattening was around 15.5 yuan/kg. According to the current average slaughter price of live pigs in Henan, Mu Yuan gradually turned losses into profits, while the actual slaughter price of live pigs in Northeast China and North China rose to more than 16 yuan/kg.

According to official sources, the dust of pork storage and storage has settled. On February 24th, the government will start the plan of purchasing and storing 20,000 tons of pork. Under the support of favorable purchasing and storage, the sentiment of raising prices at the breeding end is high, the phenomenon of market pressure is constant, and the number of live pigs in society is obviously shrinking!

However, due to the current secondary fattening, domestic mainstream slaughterhouses still have the operation of storing frozen products. For a time, slaughterhouses and secondary fattening "snapped up" suitable pig sources, but in the case of "more monks and less meat", pig prices were forced to rise, and the average slaughter price of pig enterprises in northern multi-regional groups was raised by 0.5~0.6 yuan/kg. The focus of secondary fattening is still 100 kg of medium and small pigs!

However, when the storage time is determined, the speculation about storage will come to an end. Judging from the operating rate of slaughter enterprises, the operating rate of domestic sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.56 percentage points compared with the previous day, which also means that the enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises for purchasing and storing decreased!

Therefore, after the short-term rise in pig prices, the downward pressure on the market will gradually increase, and the sentiment of frozen products in slaughter enterprises will fall back, which will inevitably increase the price reduction, and some farmers will turn losses into profits one after another, and the pace of slaughter will also accelerate. There is still downward pressure on the market!

Face-saving enterprises step into the "cold winter"!

Recently, in the upstream and downstream markets of domestic wheat, the price of wheat has continued to fall, the price of flour has failed to stand firm, and the price drop phenomenon has increased. The bran price of some flour enterprises has also fluctuated downwards, the profit margin of flour enterprises has been squeezed, the mood of replenishing raw grain is depressed, and the spot wheat price has been falling all the way!

It is understood that at present, the average price of wheat in China is 1.582 yuan/kg, and the listed price of mainstream flour milling enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and Henan has dropped to about 1.57 ~ 1.595 yuan/kg. Recently, the price of wheat has dropped by 70~80 yuan/ton! The price of wheat fluctuates downwards. On the one hand, the market supply is relatively loose. After the Lantern Festival, the temporary storage and minimum purchase price of wheat entered the market one after another, and the phenomenon of market auction gradually increased. On the other hand, flour enterprises have sufficient stocks before the holiday, but after the year, the operating rate is low, the inventory consumption is slow, the enthusiasm of enterprises to replenish stocks is weak, and the demand side lacks support!

Therefore, the price of wheat has been falling, and domestic flour enterprises have entered the market in recent years. After the Lantern Festival, the operating rate of enterprises has recovered, and the inventory of flour and bran has been increasing. However, the cautious demand for feed and the poor delivery of flour have also led to a decline in the market for flour and bran. Among them, in the flour market, the price of domestic 30 flour dropped to 3568 yuan/ton, and the profits of some milling enterprises fell back to 38 yuan/ton, so the profit space of enterprises shrank.

At present, due to the obvious phenomenon of inventory accumulation, some flour processing enterprises are forced to reduce prices. However, the weak demand for flour in the terminal market, the slow delivery of dealers' inventory and the low demand for replenishment have further aggravated the pressure on flour enterprises. Some small and medium-sized flour enterprises have been forced to stop work, while large manufacturers have been constantly seizing market share and lowering prices, further impacting small and medium-sized flour enterprises, and enterprises have also entered a "cold winter"!

The hatchery is in an awkward position!

In 2023, the price of domestic eggs rose "wave after wave". According to the data, at present, the domestic breeding egg price of white feather broilers is as high as 3.5 yuan/egg, and the mainstream transaction price hovers at 3.3~3.65 yuan/kg. The price of breeding eggs hit a new high in the last three years, with an increase of more than 374% compared with the same period last year!

At present, the price of breeding eggs of white feather broilers in China has soared, further pushing up the market trend of chicken seedlings. At present, the price of white feather broilers has reached about 5.05 yuan/feather, with a year-on-year increase of over 350%. As the price of breeding eggs continues to rise, the chicken seedling market still has a further upward trend!

According to industry insiders, the key to the high price of this round of breeding eggs is that at the end of last year, the meat and poultry market was sluggish and the pace of breeding chickens being eliminated by parents accelerated. Especially the high price of commercial eggs, some kinds of eggs are shipped as commercial eggs, which has also caused the obvious shrinkage of the current breeding egg market and parents' generation, which has intensified the pressure of tight supply of staged breeding eggs!

It can be seen that under the support of multiple factors, the domestic breeding egg price is soaring, and the cost of hatcheries is increasing sharply. Although the price of chicken is rising, there is still room for profit in incubating enterprises. However, due to the increasing market resistance, the risk of the market outlook is gradually increasing, and some incubating enterprises are in an embarrassing situation. In the short term, the price increase of breeding eggs will be obviously limited, and the price will be slightly lowered. However, due to insufficient supply, the space for price adjustment will be limited!

The price of pigs rose by 12.5%, flour enterprises entered the "cold winter", and the hatchery was in an embarrassing situation. What happened? What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!