In the current economic environment, what measures can the government take to curb inflation without raising interest rates substantially?

The Impact of Economic Crisis on China

Abstract: At present, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out in an all-round way, which not only triggered global financial turmoil, but also began to have an impact on the real economy. With the stock market crash and credit contraction, investors' confidence collapsed, and many developed countries and some emerging market countries fell into recession one after another, the risk of the world economy entering stagnation or even recession increased significantly.

Keywords: economic crisis, impact, employment.

The influence of American economic crisis on China's banking industry.

The central bank's monetary policy is in a dilemma At present, the central bank's monetary policy is in a dilemma between "maintaining growth" and "controlling inflation". Under the global economic crisis, China's economic growth has been restrained, and it is inevitable that the growth rate will slow down. However, under the sustained high-speed growth of 10, "sudden braking" will lead to the closure of a large number of enterprises, employment difficulties, and affect social stability and harmony. The relaxation of monetary policy has made the already serious PPI and CPI more rampant. It is proved that the "two rates" announced by 15 have reduced the market ungrateful. Similarly, whether the RMB will continue to appreciate or depreciate against the US dollar is also a "dilemma" choice. In the past two days, global central banks and financial regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, have demonstrated their magic and injected more than 300 billion dollars of liquidity into the financial system. In the past two days, the Federal Reserve has continuously injected $654.38+02 billion into the market through the repurchase agreement, which is the largest capital injection since "965.438+065.438+0". Following the United States, many central banks in the euro zone, Britain, Japan, Australia, Switzerland and so on have also taken continuous capital injection measures. In Asia, Chinese mainland and Taiwan Province provinces successively announced the reduction of deposit reserve ratio or loan interest rate, while Indonesian announced the reduction of overnight repo rate. However, the efforts of central banks have not received immediate results. Dow, Standard & Poor's 500, Nasdaq, European stock market and London stock market all fell, the selling pressure of A-share financial stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen was heavy, and the Shanghai Composite Index 10 annual cost line was also in jeopardy. After investor confidence drops to freezing point, any rescue measures will become a "short-lived" "green landscape" under the heavy selling pressure. However, a proactive fiscal policy is needed. Today, the unilateral collection of stamp duty is a good behavior to save the market. After investors lose confidence, it is best to abolish stamp duty completely.

The Impact of American Economic Crisis on China Real Estate Industry

In the economic downturn caused by the global economic crisis, the real "winter" of China's real estate industry and the risk of bank non-performing loans will begin to appear at the end of 2008 and the first half of 2009. In the future, the continuous decline of real estate industry turnover, the weakening of buyers' confidence and the wait-and-see attitude of holding money, the continuous increase of vacancy rate and the decline of gross profit margin will cause developers to encounter cash flow problems, and the risk of non-performing loans in banking real estate will be greatly increased.

According to the analysis of Goldman Sachs' loan records from banks to 65 real estate developers, since the property market adjustment in May 438+10 last year, the phenomenon of insufficient cash flow of developers has gradually been exposed; However, developers still attract domestic and foreign private investors with higher interest rates. In order to raise cash, domestic big-name star real estate developers Vanke and Evergrande compete to reduce prices. Housing prices in cities in the Pearl River Delta have obviously fallen into a downward trend, especially in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Huizhou. China government agencies said on June 16 that the house price index of 70 cities tracked in August fell for the first time from the previous month, with the Shanghai area falling by 0.2%. At present, the phenomenon of falling house prices is becoming more and more common in all parts of China, and real estate investment is further shrinking. In addition, Morgan Stanley, which once actively invested in Shanghai real estate, now wants to sell some top luxury houses. Recently, Morgan Stanley's real estate fund auctioned two luxury houses in Shanghai, including more than 65,438+000 commercial houses in Xintiandi. In addition, Morgan Stanley originally intended to buy the floor of Shanghai World Financial Center, the tallest building in Shanghai, but later gave up. Combined with the "economic crisis" in the United States, Morgan Stanley's auction of China real estate may be to prepare for a potential liquidity crisis, or it may indicate that some foreign capital is ready to withdraw from the China real estate market, which will "add insult to injury" to the China real estate market in the severe winter-first, developers will face solvency crisis, then weaker real estate developers will close down, and then domestic banks will be affected.

The Influence of American Economic Crisis on China Steel Market

As far as the recent financial events are concerned, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank injected more than180 billion dollars into the financial system on June 6 to alleviate the lack of liquidity. However, mitigation is only mitigation after all. The crisis has occurred, but its negative impact on the world economy is expanding. All walks of life, led by real estate, are facing a decline in output and demand, and the demand for steel will shrink sharply. Statistics show that as the world's largest producer and exporter of steel, China's steel exports reached 43 million tons in 2006, 62.64 million tons in 2007, and 4 1.84 million tons in June-August 2008, a year-on-year decrease of 3.25 million tons or 7.2%. Once steel exports are affected by the extremely shrinking world steel demand, China's domestic steel production capacity will be pushed to a new height, and the domestic steel industry will face a long-term decline. The impact of the international economic crisis on China's steel products is not only reflected in the crackdown on exports, but also in the increasing globalization of China's economy after China's entry into WTO. The recession of the world economy will also greatly affect the development momentum of China's economy. In the first half of this year, in order to curb inflation, the government's policy was to tighten monetary liquidity. Although the international economic crisis has increasingly restrained China's economy, the government has gradually relaxed its monetary policy. Almost one of the three major investment banks in the United States was acquired, one declared bankruptcy and the other was in a state of bankruptcy emergency, which led to the US government's capital injection of 80 billion US dollars. At the same time, the "interest rate increase action" of the domestic central bank finally changed according to the situation. On September 15, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rate for one-year RMB loans would be lowered by 0.27 percentage points from September 16, and the benchmark interest rate for other loans would be adjusted accordingly according to the principle of multi-adjustment in the short term and low-key in the long term, and the benchmark interest rate for deposits would remain unchanged. Since September 25th, except for China Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Agricultural Bank, China Bank, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank, the deposit reserve ratio of other deposit-taking financial institutions has been lowered by 1 percentage point, and the deposit reserve ratio of local corporate financial institutions in the hardest hit areas of Wenchuan earthquake has been lowered by 2 percentage points. As in the past, the adjustment of government policies is only to meet the needs of economic development and changes. The previous interest rate hike was to prevent the economy from overheating, and this interest rate cut will be to prevent the economic recession. In just half a year, the policy changes are so obvious, which shows that the central authorities have foreseen the great impact of the international economic crisis on China. Therefore, the author asserts that because the international economic crisis has a great impact on China, the central government needs to raise the two rates several times to keep the economy overheating, so it also needs to lower them several times to tide over the increasingly serious economic crisis.

For the production, sales and demand of domestic steel products, the reduction of "two rates" is undoubtedly a good thing. However, due to the sluggish steel demand industries such as downstream real estate, household appliances and machinery manufacturing, the downward adjustment of the "two rates" is almost negligible. As we all know, the real estate prices all over the country have dropped significantly recently. Once the downward channel is formed, it is difficult to restore market confidence in a short time. Under the influence of the international economic crisis, developers, real estate speculators and property buyers in China will be cautious about real estate investment. The only purpose of those developers and real estate speculators who clamor for saving the market all day is to "solve the problem" and it is impossible to continue to increase investment. This is likely to cause the downturn of China's real estate industry for quite a long time. In addition to the real estate industry, China's export-oriented economy will also be seriously affected. This year, the central government proposed to transform China's "export-driven" economy into "domestic demand-driven" economy, but at present, China is an "export-driven" economy. It can be predicted that if the current international economic crisis really turns into the Great Depression of 1923, those export-oriented enterprises in China will be hit hard. As we all know, the demand for steel involves all walks of life, and the impact of the shrinkage of several major industries on the demand for steel can be imagined. Therefore, the author believes that under the background of the international economic crisis, the iron and steel industry in China will face a recession of one to two years.

The Impact of American Economic Crisis on China Shipping Industry

The shipping industry as a whole is a cyclical industry. In recent years, the high shipping market has caused shipowners to increase a large number of ship orders, which is enough to make the shipping industry enter a downward cycle even without considering the decline in demand. However, based on the fact that CICC Macro Group is more pessimistic about the future of China and the global economy, we believe that the feast of the shipping market has passed, and 2008 will be the peak of the cycle. Dry bulk market: Due to huge orders, it will face a 3-4 year down cycle. At present, it is estimated that the average BDI will be 5000,3000 points in 2009- 10. Tanker market: In the next three years, the downward cycle may only rebound by 20 10, and the downward speed of finished oil tanker freight will be slightly better than that of crude oil tanker. Container transport market: The downturn will continue in 2009, and whether 20 10 can get out of the trough still depends on the economic trends in Europe and America. Give the shipping stocks a rating of "underperforming the market" as a whole. In the future, it is suggested to "avoid the strong cycle and weak cycle of interval trading". The stock price rebound brought by the seasonal peak season in the fourth quarter will be a shipping opportunity. We have lowered the profit expectations of China Ocean Shipping, Changhang Oil Transportation, China Shipping Development and China Shipping Container Lines to varying degrees. At the same time, we downgraded the ratings of China Shipping Development and COSCO Shipping from "recommendation" to "prudent recommendation", while China COSCO and Changhang Oil Transportation were downgraded from "recommendation" and "prudent recommendation" to "neutral" respectively.

The influence of American economic crisis on China's textile industry

Under the comprehensive influence of rising raw and auxiliary materials costs, rising energy costs and labor costs, RMB appreciation, the US subprime mortgage crisis and the continued weakness of the domestic market, the company's net profit in June-June 2008 decreased by 43.70% year-on-year. In the second half of 2008, influenced and restricted by the domestic and international economic environment, many unfavorable factors still existed, which had a great impact on the company's economic benefits. This is a passage in Demian's semi-annual report. Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis and other factors, similar expressions can be found in the public information of many textile enterprises. The textile industry is beset with difficulties. "In the first seven months, the average contribution rate of export price increase to export growth showed a downward trend, that is to say, China's textile export price increase ability is gradually failing." A few days ago, Wang Qianjin, editor-in-chief of First Textile Network, publicly expressed his concern about the export price-raising ability of textile enterprises. The data shows that since the second quarter of this year, the increase of China's export price has begun to accelerate, which has slowed down the increase of China's textile export comprehensive price index to 3.52% in the first seven months, and the increase in quantity has dropped to 5.2 1%, while the increase in textile exports has also dropped to 8.92% in the same period, and the contribution rate of price to exports is obviously lower than that of quantity. The downturn in the industry has also seriously affected the confidence of investors. According to the statistics of First Textile Network, from June, 5438 to July this year, the textile industry in China has invested a total of15341000 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 13. 14%, and the growth rate is lower than that of the same period last year. Textile investment actually dropped to 15%. Liu Xin, an industry analyst of China Textile Economic Information Network, said that from the perspective of investment in different industries, all other industries maintained growth except the cotton spinning industry, but the growth rate of investment in silk, finished products, knitting, clothing, chemical fiber, textile machinery and other industries declined to varying degrees compared with the same period last year. Among them, the most prominent decline in investment growth rate is the textile machinery industry, and its investment growth rate has dropped by 30.92 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. On the other hand, many textile and garment enterprises began to reduce labor costs. At present, 30 listed textile and garment enterprises have reported a year-on-year decrease in "cash paid to and for employees".

The Impact of American Economic Crisis on China Tourism

The financial crisis and its economic recession will inevitably have negative effects on China's inbound tourism revenue, tourism enterprise investment and domestic tourism consumption.

First, inbound tourism may decline. China's inbound tourists mainly come from Hongkong, Macau, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea, Japan, Russia and other neighboring regions and countries. At present, Hongkong, Taiwan Province Province, South Korea and Japan have all been deeply impacted, with the stock market plunging and the economy slowing down. At present, the stock markets in these countries are depressed, the investment confidence of enterprises is insufficient, and private consumption is generally reduced. In this context, both business tourism and leisure tourism will be affected, which will weaken the pulling effect of the Olympic Games on China's tourism to a certain extent, thus slowing down the growth of inbound tourism and even reducing the absolute amount.

Second, the price advantage is weakened. In the case of continuous domestic economic recession, the US government issued a large number of US dollars to stimulate the economy, which led to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar. At the same time, the financial crisis has seriously endangered the credit crunch in Europe and dragged the economies of various countries into recession. The depreciation pressure of euro and pound increased, and the appreciation of RMB accelerated. Although China's financial system is relatively unaffected, the continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and other currencies will weaken the long-standing price advantage of China's inbound tourism.

Third, domestic tourism expenditure has decreased. On the one hand, the financial crisis has aggravated the decline of China A-share market, shrunk investors' assets and weakened the actual purchasing power of some residents. On the other hand, the financial crisis has many uncertainties and potential risks, which also makes people's risk aversion generally rise, and they are not optimistic about the future employment situation and income expectations. When residents' income expectations are not good, the first thing to be compressed is non-essential consumption such as tourism. Therefore, domestic tourism will also be affected.

Finally, enterprise financing tends to be difficult. At present, the global financial system is in turmoil, and the non-performing assets of banks have risen sharply. In order to avoid risks, banks are generally reluctant to lend. At the same time, the financial crisis has posed a severe challenge to the "Wall Street Model" and exposed serious loopholes in product innovation and market supervision in modern financial industry. In view of this, our government will inevitably further strengthen financial supervision and tighten monetary policy. In terms of macroeconomic policies, in order to prevent the economy from falling too fast and prices from rising too fast, the central government has put forward a macro-control policy of "one guarantee and one control", which determines that monetary policy cannot be relaxed obviously in the short term. Even if the "two rates" were lowered not long ago, it was only to solve the financial difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the impact on the financing of large-scale projects such as resorts, theme parks and tourism real estate was extremely limited. Therefore, affected by the financial crisis, the financing of such enterprises will become more difficult.

Generally speaking, in terms of consumption, the financial crisis will have a certain negative impact on China's inbound tourism and domestic tourism. Specific to different industries and markets, its impact may be different: as far as industries are concerned, the hotel industry and aviation industry are more affected; As far as stratification is concerned, enterprises located in the high-end market are greatly affected, while the low-end market is relatively less affected. In terms of investment, it will make the financing of large-scale tourism projects more difficult.

Conclusion:

Although the financial crisis did not occur in China, its impact spread all over the world, and China was also unfavorable, and many industries in China were affected. The financial industry bears the brunt. Financial institutions, such as investment banks, securities companies and insurance companies, which used to have unlimited scenery, almost all cut or even canceled campus recruitment plans, while foreign banks, which have developed rapidly in recent years, have also slowed down their development. At the same time, the real economy such as real estate, automobiles and advertising is affected. The prospects of petroleum and petrochemical, energy, minerals, export trade and logistics are also unknown. At the same time, the United States drastically reduced imports due to economic deterioration, which made China's import and export trade begin to decline, and the future situation was uncertain. It is expected that the situation will further deteriorate next year, and the recruitment demand of commercial logistics enterprises will decline. Due to the shrinking market and declining demand, many high-tech enterprises have also reduced their recruitment plans this year, especially in software and hardware outsourcing and chip manufacturing industries. Similarly, communication and internet companies have slowed down their expansion.

All these influences will affect the life of the people in China. The damage of these industries will lead to more enterprises closing down and more people being laid off. Therefore, the employment of citizens is the foundation of life! China's economy should shift from external demand to domestic demand as soon as possible, and China enterprises should also focus on industrial upgrading, even if this transformation leads to the death of some enterprises. However, in the face of the possible surge in unemployment, only by ensuring employment can we win the necessary stable environment for adjustment. In this difficult situation, helping citizens keep their jobs is one of the biggest responsibilities of the government.

References:

china economy information net

Economic observation network

Economic observer

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