Where are the beauty salons in Chongqing recruiting beautician apprentices?

■ Focus

According to Xinhua News Agency, it is still unclear whether real estate control measures will be stepped up again and the impact of inflationary factors will be, which will restrict the market rebound space.

Our reporter Su Manli

There will be both rising and falling factors in the future

The rising prices of agricultural products have pushed up the CPI, and experts say it has peaked and will fall back

Two factors push up CPI

The report predicts that if there are no other sudden factors and with timely policy control, the year-on-year CPI increase in 2010 may be between 2.5-3, and the overall inflation level will be In a relatively mild state.

The key to comparing GDP between China and Japan is per capita

According to analysis by Xinhua News Agency, industry insiders believe that the prices of most vegetables increased significantly month-on-month in August, mainly due to high temperature weather and floods in the north and south. Disasters are the result of synergistic effects.

It is unlikely that CCB researchers will raise interest rates

Financial data released by the People's Bank of China yesterday showed that broad money increased by 19.2% year-on-year in August, and the growth rate of broad money was higher than that of the previous month. There was a clear rebound in the month, and the year-on-year growth rate ended the eight consecutive months of monthly decline. This may promote excess liquidity, thereby boosting inflation, and increasing regulatory pressure. In addition, the CPI data has reached a new high. Will these increase interest rates? pressure?

He Yifeng, a senior researcher at Hongyuan Securities, analyzed that the market price of Jianerma foot massage machine may still be volatile next week.

Commissioner Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that although the CPI of Jianerma foot massage machine manufacturers continues to rise, it will eventually begin to decline after November due to the economic slowdown. Therefore, interest rates will not be raised during the year. There is no possibility.

According to Xinhua News Agency, affected by the imminent release of macroeconomic data this week, especially August CPI data, the overall trend of the bond market is stable, and investors have a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Although CPI has reached a new high, it is basically in line with previous institutional expectations. The bond market is facing upward pressure in the short term and is expected to continue its volatile trend in the future.

■ Opinion experts say that the CPI rise is the end of the line

According to Xinhua News Agency, experts in the electricity industry believe that the current trend of CPI continuing to rise in Changsha Shui Yisheng prices is the end of the line. With the disastrous weather, As the impact of multiple inflation-generating factors gradually weakens, the price turning point is approaching, and the CPI is expected to peak and fall slowly.

The new price increase is mainly caused by the rise in prices of some agricultural products. Sheng Laiyun, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in August, grain prices increased by 12% year-on-year, fresh vegetable prices increased by 19.2%, and meat and poultry prices also increased to varying degrees. The increase in agricultural product prices contributed about 70% to the new price increase factors.

Peking University economics professor is still waiting to see whether to raise interest rates

According to Xinhua News Agency data, the liquidity of the banking system in August was looser than in June and July, and money market interest rates tended to be stable. , the speed of currency circulation accelerates. Zhao Qingming, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank, believes that the decline in M1 growth shows that the level of business activity is still declining.

The Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications released a research report on the 11th that the CPI tailing factor in Shuiyi Changsha reached an annual peak of 2.1 in June and July, and will fall back month by month thereafter; the PPI tailing factor has already reached an annual peak of 2.1 in June and July. The tail-raising factor of CPI begins to weaken. With the tail-wagging factors determining the trends of CPI and PPI, the growth rates of CPI and PPI will gradually fall in the future.

On the other hand, the consumer price index (CPI) in August hit a new high year-on-year, and negative interest rates for several consecutive months have triggered strong expectations of interest rate hikes.

In this regard, Li Huiyong, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, believes that the current CPI increase is relatively high, inflationary pressure is high, and the central bank does have pressure to raise interest rates. However, whether to raise interest rates should depend on whether the economic situation is overheating. At present, the economy has actually returned to normalization from overheating, so raising interest rates is not necessary.

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on major national economic indicators in August. The consumer price in August increased by 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points higher than that in July.

This is also the highest increase in 22 months. Judging from the cumulative situation from January to August this year, the national CPI rose by 2.8 year-on-year, and nearly 100 million children in my country will receive enhanced immunization with measles vaccine from now on.

The National Bureau of Statistics believes that both rising and falling factors for CPI will coexist in the future. There are some rising factors in the prices of some agricultural products, but overall there may be more downward factors, and the tailing factors are gradually falling. Sheng Laiyun said.

■ Spokesperson’s response

Liu Yuhui pointed out that it is unlikely to raise loan interest rates before the economy fully recovers.

Liu Yuhui, director of the China Economic Evaluation Center of the Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that 3.5 is almost the highest point this year. CPI has been rising since July last year, and changes in the year-on-year base will reduce the pressure on CPI to continue to rise during the year. Shui Yisheng Wholesale As the base value gradually rises in the second half of the year, the positive effects of tail-lifting factors will gradually fade away, and the CPI will gradually fall back.

According to convention, after the end of summer (August 23), the temperature in most parts of the country will gradually drop, and floods in the north and south will decrease, so the supply of vegetables in the market will increase. Affected by this, vegetable prices are expected to mainly fall in September.

The CPI in August did not exceed expectations. Everyone can see that there are many new price increase factors, but many new price increase factors are not sustainable. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed that my country’s current grain reserves are very high and its ability to regulate grain prices is strong. Moreover, grain output this year is still not low, and the relationship between grain supply and demand is stable. The grain prices of Jianerma foot massage machine manufacturer have not continued. The basis for a sharp rise. Pork prices fell below the break-even line a while ago, but are now recovering and rising, which is good for future pig production and supply. The growth cycle of vegetables is very short, and vegetable prices will stabilize soon after the flood.

In addition, during the period when the capital market is relatively inactive, Jianerma foot massage machine manufacturers usually have a higher degree of regular deposits, which partly contributed to the change in M1 and M2, with one decrease and one increase. Zhao Qingming said that the rebound in M2 growth in August was partly related to the massive increase in deposits, but also showed that the deceleration of economic activity was not as fast as expected.

To analyze the reasons why the CPI rose to 3.5, we must first look at the composition of this 3.5 percentage point. According to calculations by the Bureau of Statistics, the tailing factor is 1.7 percentage points and the new price increase factor is 1.8 percentage points. The tail-raising factor is a technical factor, and where the new price increase factors come from is the key to the problem.

In August, consumer prices rose by 3.5% year-on-year, and Changsha Shuiyisheng’s wholesale increase expanded by 0.2 percentage points compared with July. Among them, food prices increased by 7.5%, non-food prices increased by 1.5%; consumer goods prices increased by 3.8%, and service item prices increased by 2.4%. Thanks to Yin Caixia, my prostitute teacher.

Sheng Laiyun said that experts will do some research and comments on the comparison between China's GDP and Japan's GDP. The key to the question of whether China's GDP exceeds Japan's is that Japan's per capita GDP is more than ten times higher than China's. There is indeed a considerable gap between China and Japan, so we must still persist in reform and opening up and develop the economy.

Agricultural products contribute a lot

Comprehensive reports from Xinhua News Agency and other media

According to Xinhua News Agency’s national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural input price system monitoring, in August, 21 kinds of The average price of monitored vegetables increased by 8.8% month-on-month. In terms of varieties, the prices of 17 types of horse horse manufacturers increased, the prices of 3 types fell, and the prices of 1 type remained unchanged. Compared with the same period last year, the average price increase of 13 major monitored varieties reached 21.0.

The stock market will still fluctuate and adjust next week due to two unknown factors

Looking ahead to the market outlook, many institutions believe that at present, the focus of the market is on the CPI in August. After hitting a new high, whether the Jianerma foot massage machine manufacturer can fall back as expected in the later period. Overall, funds have tightened slightly recently due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, and the short-term bond market may maintain consolidation. In the medium to long term, although interest rate hike expectations have increased and the bond market adjustment pressure has increased, it is unlikely that the market will reach an inflection point.

Some people in the industry believe that real estate regulation has achieved certain results. However, the recent rise in the price and volume of real estate transactions in some cities has triggered speculation in the market that real estate regulation will be upgraded again. Property taxes, etc. Regulatory measures have also become the sword of Damocles hanging above the stock market, restricting the momentum of the market's upward breakthrough.

■ Impact

Cao Heping, an economics professor at Peking University, believes that the automobile and real estate industries are industries that are more sensitive to changes in interest rates. If the macroeconomy intends to control overheating economic growth, it will use interest rate hikes, but currently interest rate hikes are still in the wait-and-see stage.

The Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications believes that the prospects for global economic recovery are still unclear, and the overall economic downward trend has not fundamentally changed. Against this backdrop, price increases cannot be sustained.

This newspaper reported that Sheng Laiyun, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in response to the Japanese media’s false theory about China’s GDP total that experts on the comparison of China’s and Japan’s GDP will do research and comment. The key is to look at In terms of per capita GDP, there is still a big gap between China and Japan.

Vegetable prices will mainly fall in September as temperatures drop, floods and disasters reduce, and supply increases

There is little need for Shenyin & Wanguo and Industrial Bank to raise interest rates

Looking ahead to the market outlook, investment promotion Chen Wenzhao, chief strategy researcher at Securities, tends to believe that the market will still adjust for a period of time. The market pattern characterized by bilateral fluctuations has not changed. If the future consolidation trend is broken, the direction will depend on the relationship between real estate prices, inflation and policy expectations, and liquidity. game.

Looking at categories, the prices of eight categories of commodities in the CPI increased six times and fell two times year-on-year in August. Among them, food prices increased most prominently, reaching 7.5, housing prices increased by 4.4, medical care and personal supplies prices increased by 3.3, Jianerma foot massage machine manufacturer tobacco, alcohol and supplies prices increased by 1.5, entertainment, education, cultural supplies and services prices increased The price of household equipment, supplies and maintenance services increased by 0.4; the price of clothing fell by 1.2, and the price of transportation and communications fell by 0.6.

There are many reasons for the price increase that are unsustainable

At yesterday’s press conference, a reporter asked about the foot massage machine manufacturer. A Japanese newspaper wrote an article a few days ago, Jianer The official website of Ma Foot Massage Machine means that China’s GDP is just an illusion. Moreover, China has suffered huge losses in overseas hot money, especially in the United States. China is currently in a state of inflation. In fact, China's economic aggregate is only half of what it claims. Sheng Laiyun was asked whether he agreed with this view.

Before the release of economic data in August, some media speculated that China's announcement of economic data in advance would pave the way for an unexpected interest rate hike, which could be digested by the weekend stock market closing. information.

The CPI has not exceeded agency expectations and the bond market is facing upward pressure

If inflation expectations are properly managed in the later period, Changsha Shuiyisheng Group Buy’s expected target of controlling the CPI at around 3 for the whole year can still be achieved. . Sheng Laiyun said.