The rumor that the position of pharmaceutical bio-holdings in public offering was reduced to 1.5% triggered the stock price diving.

"In the second quarter, the weight of active equity funds in the biomedical sector was already very low, but I didn't expect it to be further reduced in the third quarter." A pharmaceutical investor reluctantly told the First Financial Reporter.

by the end of the second quarter, the over-allocation ratio of publicly held pharmaceutical bio-positions relative to the CSI 3 has decreased to 1.5 percentage points, which is the lowest level since the third quarter of 29.

unexpectedly, this figure further decreased to 1.24% in the third quarter. According to many insiders, the persistent stock price decline caused by the rumors of collective mining is undoubtedly an important reason for the lack of confidence in this sector by public offerings.

However, with the bottoming out of biomedicine and the improvement of fundamentals, some pharmaceutical researchers and fund managers seem to regain their confidence: "The proportion of biomedicine in public positions may increase in the fourth quarter."

The stock price plunged due to the rumors of centralized purchasing

According to the data of Huaxi Securities, it can be clearly seen that in the third quarter, the net increase of active equity funds was the most obvious in the industries of national defense and military industry, real estate, transportation and computer, with the increase ratios of .79%, .59%, .56% and .4% respectively, and in pharmaceutical biology, non-bank finance, power equipment and food.

According to the data of China Post Securities, the proportion of active equity funds holding pharmaceutical organisms in the third quarter of 222 was 8.75%, down 1.81 half points from the previous quarter. After deducting the medical fund, the proportion of positions held was 4.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month.

by the end of September, 222, pharmaceutical stocks accounted for 7.93% of the total market value of A-shares. With the support of industry funds, the pharmaceutical sector was still over-allocated (1.24%, down .26 percentage points from the second quarter), but after deducting pharmaceutical funds, it was significantly under-allocated.

"In the past, the allocation ratio of biomedicine in Public Offering of Fund was above 2%. In the past two years, Public Offering of Fund was not interested in the biomedical sector, and new funds often went to see some industries, such as new energy." Zuo Jianming, general manager of Xiaoyu Assets, told the First Financial Reporter.

Public Offering of Fund's allocation of pharmaceutical stocks hit a new low, which is behind the continuous downturn of pharmaceutical stocks.

According to the data of Tonglian, as of the close of November 4th, 431 stocks in the first-class pharmaceutical sector of CITIC have dropped by an average of 6.76% this year.

Take Hengrui Pharma (6276.SH) as an example. Although its share price has rebounded recently, as of the close of November 4th, its share price has fallen by 17.31% this year, which underperformed the broader market.

on the evening of October 19th, the third quarterly report released by Hengrui Pharma showed that the company achieved operating income of 2.199 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, up by 4.5% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.21%; The non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.149 billion yuan, up by .19%. Judging from the data of a single quarter, the company's revenue in the third quarter was 6.91 billion yuan, down 14.84% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 1.54 billion yuan, down 3.57% year-on-year; The non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 1.52 billion yuan, down 4.87% year-on-year. The company has experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit for two consecutive quarters.

Hengrui Pharma did not elaborate on the reasons for the decline in performance in the third quarter. According to the semi-annual report, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of this year was about 2.668 billion yuan, with a slight increase of .21%, the lowest growth rate since 23. Since 218, the company has entered the national centralized procurement of generic drugs * * * with 28 varieties, and 18 varieties have been selected, with an average decline of 72.6%, which has caused great pressure on the company's performance.

Changchun High-tech (661.SZ), another leading pharmaceutical enterprise, will see its share price fall whenever there are rumors of centralized purchasing.

for example, in mid-August, there was a rumor in the market that the centralized purchasing office of drugs and medical consumables in Zhejiang Province published the third batch of centralized purchasing documents of drugs in public medical institutions in Zhejiang Province (draft for comments). Although the specific purchase varieties have not been announced, there are market rumors that the two groups of differentiated drugs and biopharmaceuticals are collected, among which biopharmaceuticals contain human growth hormone (recombinant human growth hormone).

Although, as a leading domestic growth hormone enterprise, Changchun Gaoxin quickly responded on the interactive platform on August 18th, saying: "At present, the relevant documents are draft for comments, and the company has not received relevant formal notice; For the collection of growth hormone, from the current collection of Guangdong Alliance, it has not had a negative impact on the sales of the company's growth hormone products, and the company will further enhance the company's products and market coverage according to the final policy. "

However, on August 18th, Changchun Hi-Tech's share price suddenly plunged, and it directly fell to 22.1 yuan/share. As of the close of November 4, the company's share price closed at 174.69 yuan/share, with a cumulative decline of 35.44% this year, which greatly underperformed the broader market.

The proportion of biomedical positions may increase in the fourth quarter

In mid-September, Haitong Securities held the 11th Pharmaceutical CEO Forum. Yu Wenxin, chief analyst of Haitong Pharmaceutical and haitong international Pharmaceutical Group, said that at present, the positions of pharmaceutical stocks in Public Offering of Fund have reached the lowest level in history, and whether institutions will increase their positions in pharmaceuticals mainly depends on two points, one is whether the policies are warming up, and the other is whether there is a new main line in the sector.

On June 29th, 222, the National Medical Insurance Bureau announced the Rules for Negotiating Drug Renewal. According to the analysis of Yu Wenxin's team of Haitong Pharmaceutical, the price reduction of most contract renewal negotiations is between % and 15%, which is relatively moderate. The price reduction of new medical insurance varieties may be relatively large, and it is necessary to consider the initial pricing and the strategies of various companies.

Yu Wenxin said: "Looking back, when there was no national medical insurance bureau, newly listed drugs might not be covered by medical insurance for five or eight years. The negotiation of medical insurance is to reduce the price of drugs in exchange for heavy volume, which is also the reason why enterprises are willing to include drugs in medical insurance. We believe that on the existing basis, there will be clearer price negotiation rules in the future. We also believe that the final offer of medical insurance negotiations in November this year will be an acceptable price reduction in the market. "

"We don't have to talk about the color change of' centralized purchasing', and we must evaluate the relationship between quantity and price in any purchase." Yu Wenxin said that the market growth logic of dental implants lies in the improvement of permeability. "In 221, there will be 4 million dental implants in China * * *. Assuming that each elderly person has five teeth, then one * * * is that 8, elderly people have received dental implants. However, there may be 3-4 million elderly people in China in the future. If the price of each dental implant drops from more than 1, to 3,, is it possible for the dental implant market to have a 1-fold growth space? Therefore, the impact of centralized purchasing is not as great as the market imagined, and the focus is on which companies can find these opportunities. "

after the continuous adjustment of the stock price, the A-share pharmaceutical sector has finally bottomed out since October.

The pharmaceutical index (CN646. SZ) rose by 7.87% in October, which was the first single-month increase after three consecutive months of decline. As of the close of November 4, the index has increased by 5.49% since November. The first financial reporter noted that as the pharmaceutical sector started at the end of the third quarter, some funds began to flow in since October. Among them, fund managers who have invested in new energy in the early stage have gradually transferred positions to the pharmaceutical sector since the second quarter.

according to the data of Oriental Fortune Choice, taking Guangfa Xinxiang managed by Zheng Chengran, Golden Eagle National Xinxing managed by Han Guangzhe and Harvest Environmental Protection and Low Carbon managed by Yao Zhipeng as examples, the positions of the above three funds were less than 1% at the beginning of the year, but they chose to bargain-hunting when the medicine continued to decline in the first half of the year.

At the end of the second quarter, the position of Guangfa Xinxiang Pharmaceutical reached 2%. In the first quarter of this year, the top ten positions of the fund were mainly new energy tracks. By the end of the second quarter, Tongce Medical (6763.SH) and Changchun Gaoxin (661.SZ) appeared for the first time in its list of top ten positions. In addition, Aier Ophthalmology (315.SZ), Zhifei Bio (3122.SZ) and Puli Pharmaceutical (363.SZ) were newly added to the fund, and the position of Wuwu Bio (3357.SZ) was greatly increased, among which Aier Ophthalmology was ranked as the 13th largest stock in the fund.

At the same time, the pharmaceutical position of Golden Eagle National Xinxing reached 1% at the end of the second quarter, and that of Harvest Environmental Protection and Low Carbon reached 8% at the end of the second quarter.

In addition, there are Huaxia Renaissance managed by Zhou Keping and Sun Wei's selected strategy of adding silver to people's livelihood. At the end of the second quarter, compared with the beginning of the year, they all increased their positions in the pharmaceutical industry by nearly 7 points.

"After this wave of increase, the proportion of biomedicine in public positions may increase in the fourth quarter." A brokerage researcher in the pharmaceutical industry told the First Financial Reporter.

"There have been some changes in the fundamentals of the pharmaceutical sector. Some institutions want to take medicine as the winning hand, and some large institutions that used to focus on consumer and value stocks also want to make a rebound by this wave of medicine." A private equity investment director told the First Financial Reporter.